US GDP data published late last week turned out to be better than expected, although it did not exceed the previous figure. Against this background, we can state that we will see a slight upward adjustment in the dollar exchange rate in the near future.
The European currency is now under double pressure. The first factor is the reduction of the quantitative easing program of the European Central Bank, which became known the previous Thursday (after statements by European bankers, the Euro lost almost half a percentage point of its value).
The second factor is the Bickford cord of Catalan independence. While the authorities of Catalonia and the leadership of Spain are sluggishly bickering and trying to find a way out of the situation into which they have driven themselves, everything looks more or less calm, but if someone’s nerves give out, the Euro may react in the most expected way, jumping down.
The Russian ruble felt quite confident throughout the past week, thanks to the tax period and demand for Federal Loan bonds. On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia lowered the key rate from 8.5 to 8.25% per annum, but this is unlikely to have any significant impact on the Russian ruble, because the market has already “priced” such a scenario into prices.
Investors are much more interested in the price of oil, which is predicted to rise to around $60 per barrel. So far, the Russian currency is holding on stoically, trying not to react to rising hydrocarbon prices, but rising prices for them could lead to cheaper American and European currencies among its eastern neighbors.
Remembering that the Belarusian ruble retains a certain dependence on all three of these currencies, one could predict that this coming week in Belarus we will most likely see another rise in the price of the Russian ruble, a depreciation of the Euro, and oscillatory movements of the dollar. But we should not forget about another player in the market, which still plays a major role - the Belarusian ruble.
The information background against which the native bunny (or native squirrel) has been living lately is quite interesting. Data on the growth of benefits and pensions, the Government’s desire to bring the average wage in the country to the established indicators, the end of the year, which in Belarus marks the traditional surge in buyer interest in foreign currency, in the medium term may lead to a slight increase in the exchange rate and a smoothing of “overseas” factors of influence.
But we note that in any case, the end of the year in Belarus is not the best time to transfer savings into foreign currency. It is better to wait until spring, when the US dollar and Euro traditionally become cheaper.
And, again, you should not expect sharp fluctuations in the value of currencies until the end of the year.
What can we see this coming week?
The forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017 in Belarus, as well as in other countries, depends on many indicators and factors, thereby affecting the economic development of the country and the well-being of the population. Currently, the situation in the country relative to this direction is more stable compared to the others, but still causes some excitement, since everyone will agree with the opinion that vital priorities and aspects directly depend on the dollar exchange rate. That is why, at present, quite important and sometimes completely contradictory opinions can be heard in the media. But, nevertheless, first of all, you should pay attention to the most important forecasts, on the basis of which politicians base their decisions.
Analysts' price forecast in the near future.
One of the most important and leading opinions, perhaps, is that in the next few years, starting from 2016 and up to 2020, we should expect nothing more than a gradual increase in the value of the currency basket of Belarus. It is worth noting that this particular scenario for the development of the situation is included and is the main one in the socio-economic development program.
What is this program and what does it consist of? If you carefully study and consider this program, you should highlight the following figures and statistical data included and presented in it regarding the value of the currency basket.
- - 2016 - 3,432 rubles;
- — 2017 – 3,740 rubles;
- - 2018 - 4,001 rubles;
- — 2019 – 4,242 rubles;
- — 2020 — 4,452 rubles.
This concerns the Russian ruble. But it should be noted that if the ruble exchange rate remains stable, the national currency will weaken significantly against the dollar. In other words, the following picture of prices relative to the dollar exchange rate is assumed. 
- - 2016 - 16,810 rubles;
- — 2017 – 17,735 rubles;
- — 2018 – 18,420 rubles;
- — 2019 – 19,255 rubles;
- — 2020 — 20,165 rubles.
But, minor fluctuations in the numerical parameters of the Belarusian ruble to dollar exchange rate are possible and probable, since everything depends on external factors that play an important and significant role. It is worth noting that, according to the statement of the National Bank of Belarus, throughout this entire period of time the authorities will try to adhere to a tight monetary credit policy, which, if successful, will help contain the rate of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble to the currency basket. But we should also not forget about the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar, which is also of significant importance.
Today it is well known that the program of the National Bank of Belarus is designed and aimed at solving the following very significant and significant task. In other words, all actions will be aimed at moving away from the previous regime of targeting the dollar exchange rate and, as a result, gradually move to the use and application of a mechanism for pegging the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to a basket of currencies.
But this is not the one that exists today, but a completely new model, where the share of the Russian ruble is 40%, but the share of the US dollar together with the euro is only 30%.
It is this policy that, if successful, will allow us to become independent from the US foreign currency exchange rate in the future.
What will happen to the ruble?
This is another issue that deserves special attention. Although, it’s worth saying right away that there is virtually no reason to worry, since there is relative balance and calm in this direction. But, according to the National Bank, the exchange rate of Belarusian rubles and the dynamics of their development also directly depend and are determined in accordance with world oil prices, supply and demand in the domestic market, and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. And, therefore, it is not worth giving any accurate forecasts regarding the “bunnies”, because the situation is still developing and is moving along the optimal and most favorable path for the development of the country’s economy.
The forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2017 in Belarus, if you know it exactly and down to the smallest detail, will help many make up their minds and understand that priority in choosing a currency is best given to a more stable currency, therefore it will help Belarusians make the right choice regarding deposits, thereby avoiding unnecessary excitement around this monetary unit.
Recently, the Russian ruble has been jumping either negative or positive with a fairly large amplitude. Meanwhile, in the basket of currencies by which the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is determined, it occupies 50%. At the same time, the dollar exchange rate is now generally falling, and the euro is growing, albeit slowly, but steadily. What does such hesitation threaten us with? What factors could weaken the Belarusian ruble? Will the promised salary of 1000 rubles by the end of the year affect the exchange rate? AiF figured it out together with experts.
External factor
Belarus’ trade dependence on Russia has not decreased, so it is still important for us what happens on the Russian foreign exchange market, he believes financial consultant "TeletradeBel" Zhanna KULAKOVA. - In 2017, the Russian ruble is strengthening - since the beginning of the year, its exchange rate has increased relative to the basket of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by about 4%, despite the fact that oil is now even cheaper than at the beginning of the year.
The main reason for the growth of the Russian ruble exchange rate was the speculative factor - many large investors invested money in federal loan bonds, tempted by the high rate. In order for a foreigner to buy such bonds, he first needs to buy Russian rubles. It turns out that the demand for Russian rubles has increased significantly, because of this the ruble has strengthened, the expert believes.
Russian officials and financial specialists have predicted a weakening of the ruble many times over several months, but this has not yet happened. There is an impression that in the neighboring country there is some kind of confrontation between the Central Bank, which does not see anything bad in a strong ruble, and the relevant ministries, which would like to see a slightly weaker national currency. Given that speculative growth is not the most reliable factor, I think that in the medium term we may still see a weakening of the Russian ruble. If the oil market does not present any unpleasant surprises, this weakening will be very moderate and, most likely, will not exceed 5-10%, analyzes Zhanna Kulakova.
The specialist believes that this will be reflected in the Belarusian market: we will see a depreciation of the Russian ruble and an increase in the exchange rates of the dollar and euro. At the same time, we must remember that the Belarusian ruble cannot indefinitely strengthen against the Russian ruble - this will harm exports. According to the financial consultant, it is unlikely that the Russian ruble exchange rate in Belarus will fall below 3.2 Belarusian rubles per 100 Russian rubles for a long time.
If this forecast comes true, then at the current dollar-euro exchange rate (approximately 1.12) and with a weakening of the Russian ruble on the foreign market by 5% in Belarus, the Russian ruble exchange rate will fall to 3.2, the dollar will rise to approximately 1.88, and euro - will rise in price to 2.10. If the Russian ruble weakens by 10%, then in Belarus the Russian ruble exchange rate will fall to 3.2, the dollar will rise to approximately 1.97, and the euro to 2.2.
Although in practice, I think we will see the euro rise against the dollar on the world market, as a result of which the dollar exchange rate will be slightly lower than that given in the forecast, and the euro exchange rate will be slightly higher.
No pressure
Zhanna Kulakova believes that there is no internal pressure on foreign exchange rates now - a significant surplus of foreign currency is being formed in the market, which is being purchased by the state to refinance foreign currency government debt and replenish gold and foreign exchange reserves. As a result, the demand and supply of currency are balanced.
The experience of recent months has shown that maintaining currency stability is now very important for the authorities. Even at the moment when the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development delayed the loan tranche, there was a need to pay off a huge debt for gas supplies to Russia, as well as service other foreign currency debts on schedule, the foreign exchange market did not move, the specialist noted.
As for other indicators of the Belarusian money market, at the end of 2017 inflation will not exceed 7%, and interest rates in the economy will decrease by another 1-3 percentage points, the expert believes.
Until the end of 2017, Zhanna Kulakova believes, noticeable movements in the foreign exchange market of Belarus can only be caused by external factors.
Real income
Financial consultant "TeletradeBel" Mikhail GRACHEV believes that even if by the end of the year the real incomes of the population in Belarus increase significantly, this is unlikely to affect the foreign exchange market. The expert suggests that people will spend money on expensive purchases rather than purchasing currency.
According to the established New Year tradition, experts were asked to predict the dollar to Belarusian ruble exchange rate on December 31, 2017.
Sergey Mukhanov, director of the investment company Volat Capital:
— In 2017, the National Bank will continue to pursue monetary policy in the monetary targeting regime, which provides for control over the money supply. Broad money growth is projected to be 14% plus/minus 2 percentage points. Accordingly, the impact of money emission on the exchange rate will be limited. The exchange rate will be formed under the influence of market factors of supply and demand.
The main groups influencing the relationship between supply and demand for foreign currency will be the population, subjects of foreign trade transactions - exporters and importers - and the state itself.
Over the 11 months of 2016, the population sold almost $1.8 billion worth of currencies on a net basis. Over the same period, the volume of foreign currency deposits of individuals decreased by $764 million. The sale of currency by the population is associated primarily with the desire to maintain the usual standard of living against the backdrop of declining real incomes. Most likely, this trend will continue in 2017, but we can assume that it will not be on such a scale. There is a realization that the crisis may be protracted and one cannot count on a quick rebound. Nevertheless, there is a certain reserve: the balance of individuals' deposits in foreign currency as of December 1 was about $7.45 billion. Thus, household transactions in the foreign exchange market in 2017 will support the ruble exchange rate.
In 2017, the country needs to allocate about $2.3 billion to repay foreign currency public debt, and $785 million for servicing. It is this position that can exert the most significant pressure on the exchange rate. At the same time, next year it is planned to raise funds in the amount of 1.86 billion dollars (including 800 million through a new issue of Eurobonds, 700 million from raising three tranches of the EFSD loan and 360 million through the issuance of domestic foreign currency government bonds), and 75% of the funds raised are planned to be used to pay off debt, and 25% to increase international reserves. Even if plans to raise funds are implemented in full, it is obvious that the amount received will not be enough to repay and service the public debt in full and it will be necessary to use other sources. One of which will be the mentioned purchase of currency from the population. But given that the volume of net sales of foreign currency by the population will not be as large as in 2016, maintaining a positive balance of foreign trade is critically important.
To maintain the competitiveness of Belarusian exports, it is advisable to prevent the real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble from strengthening against a basket of currencies. Thus, we can assume that the ruble will devalue against the basket by at least the level of forecast inflation - 9%. The ratio of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate to the dollar exchange rate will largely depend on the ratio of the currencies in the basket (dollar, euro, Russian ruble) in relation to each other. There is an expectation on the market of a further strengthening of the dollar against the euro (and this will put pressure on the Belarusian ruble to dollar exchange rate); the ratio of the Russian ruble to the dollar largely depends on world oil prices. A significant increase in oil prices (above $60 per barrel) is unlikely, since at these levels American shale oil producers will actively enter the market, which will increase supply and limit the “price ceiling.” On the other hand, if the agreement reached by OPEC and the acceding countries to reduce production is respected, this will have a supporting effect on the price level, which may consolidate at current levels (about $55 per barrel). At the same time, at current oil prices and the exchange rate, the volume of revenues of the Russian Federation budget is not enough to fulfill it; accordingly, we can assume a slight increase in the USD/RUB exchange rate - perhaps up to 63-65 Russian rubles per dollar. As for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the Russian one, we are entering 2017 at a very comfortable level in terms of the competitiveness of Belarusian products on the Russian market - almost 3.22 rubles per 100 Russian rubles. You could even say that this is a course with a small margin. Even with an average exchange rate of 3.06 in October, the balance of trade in goods with the Russian Federation showed a significant improvement. Although there are no more recent data on foreign trade. It can be assumed that the current course will lead to even better results.
There is an assumption that, given the external debt repayment schedule, the temptation to maintain the real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian ruble at the achieved level will be quite high. Taking into account the forecast inflation in Belarus at 9%, and in Russia at 4%, the nominal BYN/RUB exchange rate by the end of 2017 could be approximately 3.35-3.38 Belarusian rubles per 100 Russian rubles. Accordingly, the forecast exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar, with some strengthening of the dollar to the Russian ruble, as indicated above, may be 2.11-2.20. I think the most likely level is 2.18.
Thus, the external environment in 2017 is expected to be moderately favorable for Belarus, but it should be used exclusively for macroeconomic stabilization and in no case be diverted into populist measures, including in terms of unreasonable growth of average wages.
Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at the forex company Alpari in Minsk:
— In my forecast, I proceed from several premises. The currency basket will rise in price approximately in proportion to the inflation forecast by the authorities - by 9%. The behavior of the individual currencies included in its composition will depend on how their cross rates fluctuate on world markets. The euro has every chance of catching up with the dollar. Oil will most likely remain in the range of $50-55 per barrel of Brent. In Russia, the dollar will cost about 67 rubles. Under these conditions, by the end of next year the dollar (like the euro) will cost 2.25 rubles. This forecast may come true if the current monetary policy of the National Bank continues, but there is also a risk factor. These are calls to increase the average salary to $500 next year, “no matter what.” If you really don’t look at anything and, in particular, at the growth of labor productivity, then you will have to turn on the printing press. And if you turn on the printing press, then both inflation and foreign exchange rates will be much worse.
Katerina Bornukova, expert at the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center BEROC:
— With the transition to a floating exchange rate, forecasts become more boring and monotonous. Most likely, no significant shocks await us, either for the better or for the worse, which means that the exchange rate will be largely determined by 10% inflation. I will also put a small influence on the fact that next year Belarusians will stop handing over currency at such a pace, which means that the rate will drop by a little more than 10 percent of inflation. This is the basic scenario. It is possible that debt problems in the economy and banking system, as well as significant external debt, will lead to a currency crisis, then the exchange rate will be difficult to predict. But I think that even in this unlikely scenario, a dollar is unlikely to cost more than three rubles.
Alexander Mukha, analyst at the BusinessForecast.by research group:
— The main factor in the stability of the domestic foreign exchange market of Belarus in 2016 is the large-scale net sale of foreign currency by the population.
Thus, in January-November 2016, individuals sold on a net basis $1.795 billion (including non-cash transactions), non-residents - $414.8 million, business entities - $46.4 million. At the same time, the structure of net demand for currency from the population in January-November 2016 was as follows: net sale of cash currency - $2.273 billion and conversion of ruble deposits into foreign currency deposits on a net basis - minus $478.1 million.
As a result, the net supply of foreign currency from individuals and non-residents ($2.210 billion for January-November 2016) made it possible, together with other factors, to increase the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Belarus to $4.838 billion as of December 1, 2016, even despite significant payments for external and domestic debt obligations of the state in foreign currency.
At the same time, against this background, there was a local strengthening of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against major foreign currencies.
Thus, the population made a significant contribution to ensuring the stability of the domestic foreign exchange market in the past year.
By the way, foreign currency deposits of individuals in January-November 2016 decreased by $764 million (or 9.3%), to $7.449 billion as of December 1. In general, foreign currency savings of the population in banks (foreign currency deposits, deposits in precious metals and foreign currency bonds of banks) in January-November 2016 decreased by $520.9 million (by 5.9%), to $8.263 billion as of December 1.
Taking this into account, the volume of cash foreign currency that the population, figuratively speaking, additionally extracted from under the “mattress” in January-November 2016 can be estimated at at least $1.753 billion on a net basis. Obviously, with such a large-scale net sale of cash currency by individuals, the government and the National Bank of Belarus had the opportunity to delay a little with the same IMF loan. However, the question arises as to whether the population will be able to provide the same influx of cash currency into official economic circulation next year.
One of the most important reasons for the increase in the net supply of foreign currency on the part of individuals was the desire to maintain an acceptable level of consumption in the face of a noticeable drop in real cash incomes. According to our calculations, the average accrued salary of Belarusian workers (excluding micro-organizations and small organizations without departmental subordination) in January-November 2016 decreased by 14.2% compared to the same period of the previous year - from $415.9 to $357 (calculated the weighted average exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar was used: in January-November 2015 - 1.603424 rubles per 1 dollar (including denomination), and in January-November 2016 - 2.0029 rubles).
At the same time, the accrued wage fund for 11 months decreased even more - by $2.302 billion (or 16.9%) to $11.349 billion. The decrease in the wage fund is associated not only with a drop in average wages, but also with a reduction in the average number of employees by 94,254 thousand people in the analyzed period. According to our estimates, next year the population will be more careful in spending their foreign currency savings and more actively reducing consumer spending compared to the current year. As a result, the net supply of cash foreign currency from individuals in 2017 may decrease significantly, which will lead to an acceleration in the rate of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble against major foreign currencies.
According to our forecast, by the end of 2017, the official exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar may decrease to 2.25-2.35 rubles per 1 dollar (point estimate - 2.3 rubles per 1 dollar), which will increase the price competitiveness of Belarusian exporters on foreign markets. markets (primarily in the Russian market).
Vladimir Artyugin, independent analyst:— The determining factor in 2017 for the whole world will be long-overdue changes in the global financial and commodity markets. The planned increase in the Fed discount rate will provoke a crisis in financial markets with a subsequent fall in prices in commodity markets. As a result of the fall in oil prices to about $30 per barrel, the Russian ruble will devaluate to 90-100 rubles per dollar. In turn, this will provoke a devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. Taking into account the current ratio of currencies and the measures that the Belarusian authorities will take, this means a corridor of 2.5-3 Belarusian rubles per dollar. Since Belarus does not plan to launch a printing press, and taking into account the luck of recent years, the rate will be closer to the lower border of the corridor. My forecast is 2.7 rubles per dollar.
Yaroslav Romanchuk, executive director of the Strategy analytical center:
— My forecast is based on the fact that the Belarusian authorities are unlikely to be able to repeat the relatively successful monetary policy of 2016. Not because the National Bank will relax and rest on its laurels, but because the forces that demand an increase in the volume of preferential loans will become significantly stronger. There is a high probability that Alexander Lukashenko will identify with them, especially if he gets tired of waiting for a loan from the IMF. Damaged relations with Russia, loss of price competitiveness of producers, gross external debt in the region of 90% of GDP ( On October 1 it was 78%. — Note TUT.BY) and the need to spend $5 billion on its maintenance, a sharp increase in bad assets in the banking system and the depletion of foreign exchange resources of the population to support the exchange rate - these are very favorable conditions for reviving the inflation and devaluation tax.
