Over the past five years since the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, the totality of the problems caused by it has not lost its acuteness and topicality. If not in depth, then in scope and consequences, it can only be compared with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Having emerged in the mortgage segment of the US financial market, it quickly spread to the real sector and gained planetary proportions. In its zone were countries and regions that differ in the level of development of productive forces, social and political orientation. The crisis covered more than 80 percent of the world economy (in the years of the Great Depression - 92.4 percent). Only a few countries managed to maintain a positive, but slow growth dynamics. In terms of its qualitative characteristics, the crisis went beyond purely economic and social parameters and acquired a geopolitical projection.
If we consider the crisis from a formal point of view, as an element of the “growth-fall-growth” cycle, then we can talk about the attenuation of its descending phase. Despite, however, the passage of the most acute stage and some scattered signs of improvement, the state of the world economy and the immediate prospects for its development are still problematic. The rise in production that resumed in 2010 did not transform into a process of sustainable and dynamic growth. In the main centers of the world economy, the situation of instability and low business activity remains. There is an aggravation of social and domestic political problems.
Periodically appearing in the world press, alarming warnings about the possibility of a second wave of the crisis are not without foundation. The exit of the largest economies from the recession was largely carried out due to the unprecedented money emission. In the US, for example, the combined volume of the first and second waves of so-called quantitative easing amounted to $2.3 trillion. In September 2012, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) announced a new round of liquidity injections into the economy, under which It also provides for a monthly purchase by the Fed of Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds worth $40 billion. In the EU, in the course of two long-term refinancing operations, the European Central Bank issued 1 trillion euro loans 2 .
However, the reasons for the systemic failure in the functioning of institutions and markets were still not eliminated. The policy of stimulating business activity at the expense of budgetary resources has led to an increase in government obligations. In the United States, in particular, public debt reached 106.6 percent of GDP in 2012 and continues to grow at a faster pace. Indicators close to this level were registered in the country only in 1947 (110 percent) due to the high costs during the Second World War. The problem of the budget deficit is acute. The main risks are associated with the threat of a "fiscal cliff", the achievement of the "ceiling" of the debt and the volatility of financial markets.
Negative trends persist in other leading states of the industrial world. Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for a long time, is facing a high budget deficit and a record level of debt (235.8 percent of GDP) 3 . Particularly serious difficulties are experienced by the eurozone countries, where the epicenter of the crisis has moved. In the zone of increased risk are such countries as Greece, Portugal, Italy. The volume of public debt of these countries in relation to GDP in 2011 amounted to 160.8, 106.8 and 120.1 percent, respectively. For comparison: the criteria for economic stability, established by the Maastricht Treaty for the member countries of the eurozone, prescribe the deduction of public debt within 60 percent of GDP. According to a negative scenario, events are developing in Spain, which is essentially teetering on the verge of default.
The European Union has made significant efforts to prevent a catastrophic failure in the economy and the collapse of the eurozone. So far, however, there has not been a radical change in the situation for the better. According to the OECD, in 2012 the economies of the 17 eurozone countries will shrink by 0.1 percent, while in 2013 GDP growth will be only 0.9 percent 4 . Against the backdrop of an uncertain recovery in production, bordering on entering a recession, the problem of employment remains acute. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone at the end of 2012 is projected at 10.8 percent (10.0 percent in 2011). The most alarming figures remain in Spain (25.1 percent) and Greece (23.1 percent). These two countries also recorded the highest unemployment rates among young people (aged 15 to 24), at 52.9 and 53.2 percent, respectively.
The continued increase in the volume of derivatives (derivatives) at the level of companies and banks, which played an extremely negative role in the development of the crisis, also testifies to the persistence of inertial tendencies in the centers of capitalism. From 2010 to 2011, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the total volume of derivative contracts increased from $601 trillion to $648 trillion 6 . For comparison: the total world GDP is only 70 trillion, that is, about 10 percent of this position. The volume of derivatives on the balance sheets of American banks has increased, according to the US Federal Service for Control of Money Circulation, from $165 trillion at the end of 2007 to $230.8 trillion at the end of 2011. Of these, 95 percent accounted for the five largest banks. This top five is led by JP Morgan Chase ($88 trillion). It is followed by Bank of America (38 trillion), Citigroup (32 trillion), Gold-man Sachs (30 trillion) and Wells Fargo ($5 trillion) 7 / With such volumes of concentration of derivative financial instruments, even the most insignificant fluctuations in the markets can cause an "avalanche" that is able to sweep away the protective mechanisms of the world monetary system that have been built in recent years.
Describing the current situation, the well-known American researcher Kenneth Rogoff noted that “the mistakes that caused the 2008 crisis have not been corrected. The chances of an immediate repeat of the financial crash are slightly reduced. The laws and regulations issued at the beginning of the crisis were basically patchwork to maintain the status quo. In all other respects, however, essentially nothing has changed.
Indeed, in general, we are still talking about the accumulated and unresolved issues in economically developed countries of growing sovereign debt, deepening budget deficits and global imbalances. Thus, having failed to fulfill its “cleansing mission”, the crisis took on a focal character, while maintaining the threat of local (country or regional) problems developing into a new recession and its spread to other countries and segments of the global economy.
Origins and causes of the crisis
To date, I have not reached a consolidated opinion either about the nature of the last crisis, or, according to J. Stiglitz, the “great recession” (by analogy with the Great Depression of the 1930s), or about what kind of development policy in the post-crisis period. The range of opinions remains quite wide. The existing interpretations deserve the closest attention. But often they focus on one, albeit an important component of the problem, without reflecting the complex or multidimensional nature of the changes taking place in the world. One cannot but agree with the Russian researcher A. Fursov, according to whom “crisis phenomena are most often analyzed in isolation, as a result of which the essence of the whole disappears. If we talk about the whole, then the world is not just going through a crisis, but is at a turning point, which has no analogues in history until now” 9 . The theory of cyclicity, which states that the spiral always returns to a new level, but with the same regularity, does not work in this case. exists. This is, in essence, not about the next cycle, but about the formation of qualitatively new trends in the development of the global economy.
Discussions continue in the world economic community regarding the causes and nature of the current upheavals. Speaking, however, about the origins, it is impossible not to note the features of the development of the world economy in the pre-crisis period. In the last two or three decades of the past century, the processes of globalization of production, trade, and financial flows began to have a decisive influence on the mechanism of the economic cycle. The interdependence of national economies, the consequences of uneven development and the struggle for resources have become a source of increased volatility in world markets. Structural components, generated by disproportions in the development of individual countries, spheres and branches of production, began to occupy an increasing share in the cyclicality. The crises were becoming more and more profound and no longer fit within the boundaries of individual national economic complexes. This period, as the famous researcher of global financial crises Charles Kindleberger noted, “may be called unprecedented in terms of volatility in the prices of goods, currencies, real estate and securities, as well as in terms of the frequency and severity of financial shocks” 10 .
The multi-layered and complex nature of the problems that emerged in 2008-2009 also affected the interpretation of the origins of the crisis. Opinions vary, from explaining its causes by the “lack of effective market regulation and supervision of financial institutions” 11 to highlighting the issue of the depletion of the global economic model that has developed over the past decades.
The most common is the opinion about the purely financial nature of the crisis. And among the reasons are the liberalization of the credit and financial sector, the deregulation of international capital flows, the underestimation of risks and the excessive reliance of banking institutions on borrowed funds in the years preceding the crisis. That is, the crisis is interpreted as a purely financial crisis that arose in the US mortgage lending market and spread along the chain to other segments of the financial system and to the real economy.
A special commission of the US Congress to investigate the causes of the crisis of 2008-2009, created by the decision of President B. Obama, came to a practically similar conclusion. The final report was made public in January 2011 12 . The crisis, according to the authors of the report, was provoked by the following factors: failures in financial regulation, violations in corporate governance, which led to excessive risks; excessively high household indebtedness; widespread distribution of "exotic" securities (derivatives), the growth of an unregulated "shadow" banking system.
The blame was thus placed on bankers, financial regulators and politicians. Banks were taking on too much risk while regulators weren't took due steps to avoid it. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has also been accused of "failing to stop the growth of 'toxic' mortgages and of propagating the idea that financial institutions could well regulate themselves." on one's own" 13 .
In general, among the supporters of the purely financial nature of the crisis, three main points of view can be distinguished. As part of the first cause of the crisis, the uncontrolled use by the United States of its status as a reserve currency issuing country is voiced. According to the second premise lies in the credit traps of the "consumer society". Proponents of the third point of view focus on the uncontrolled development of financial markets.
In such an interpretation, in a generalized version, the shifts that have taken place in the economy of industrial centers are reflected. Important qualitative changes have taken place here over the past decades. They are associated with the relocation of the production of standard and mass industrial, including machine-building, products to rapidly developing countries - Mexico, China, India, Brazil, etc. The structure of production in the leading economies of the world has increasingly shifted towards the service sector. In the United States, for example, the share of material industries in GDP fell from 40 percent in the early 1950s to 20 percent in the early 2000s 14 .
The share of financial markets has noticeably increased. Their growing influence was accompanied by a massive accumulation of financial assets and the introduction of a number of institutional innovations that led to an increase in the levels of debt of households, corporate and public sectors. The virtual economy has become more attractive for investment compared to real production assets. In the US, the financial sector's share of total corporate profits increased from 7.5 percent in 1983 to 40 percent in 2007 15 .
Global financial transactions with the issue of money, exchange rates and credit transactions have become several times larger than the size of the real economy. The problem was exacerbated by the massive launch of derivatives through a multi-stage chain, which, according to UNCTAD experts, are “very dubious instruments in terms of their contribution to the growth of public welfare” 16 . Securitization and other such innovations have disrupted the traditional relationship between lenders and borrowers. The financial component has acquired a self-contained value and has actually lost touch with the real economy.
Given these factors, the loss or even weakening of control over processes in the financial sector could not but lead to another collapse in the stock and credit markets. According to Alan Greenspan, under these conditions, “if securitized American low-quality loans had not turned out to be a weak link in the global financial system, then some kind of some other financial product or market" 17 .
However, by highlighting the factor of “ineffective control” when explaining the causes of the turbulence, it is overlooked that the financial component is only one of the systemic elements of the global economy, which started back in the 1990s. Its main components were deregulation and liberalization. It was the latter that were considered as the main regulator of economic life in all its manifestations. In this context, the decrease in the level of control over the functioning of the financial market was, in essence, only a reflection or a consequence of the flaws in the model of the global economy and its leading segments represented by the United States, Western Europe and Japan, which largely determined the main contours , ideological and geopolitical parameters of world development.
It is no coincidence that as the recession deepened, a broader interpretation of the anomalies that arose in the world economy emerged. To date, many authoritative representatives of political, economic and scientific circles agree that there are a number of reasons and factors for the occurrence of such large-scale distortions in the global economy. As noted by the American researchers K. Rogoff and K. Reinhart mentioned above, “serious financial crises rarely happen in isolation from other events. Rather, they are "not the triggers for the recession", but more often the mechanisms for its amplification" 18 .
The forms of manifestation of the last crisis, its duration and associated with it, in the words of Christine Logard, "shifts of tectonic platforms in the global economy" 19 give reason to believe that its origins are not initially of a financial nature. They are not, contrary to the opinion of the IMF and the World Bank (WB), only a consequence of the lack of effective market regulation and supervision of credit institutions 20 . Global disproportions have not arisen in recent years. They are associated with the prevailing trends in the evolution of the world economy, the results of its development over the past decades. The statement of experts from such an authoritative organization in international economic circles as the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean is not without interest. In their opinion, “the crisis is not only an expression of the weakness of financial regulation, nor the result of a moral crisis caused by greed and greed. The crisis was a reflection of the end of the development model and opens the door for discussions about further ways of socio-economic progress” 21 .
The causes of the turbulent processes that have arisen in the world economy are multifaceted and testify to the crisis of the global system as a whole. There is a complex devaluation of the structure of global governance, the fundamental ideas of the modern world order. Combined with the transition to a new phase of the technological cycle, this predetermined the scale of financial and economic failures. In addition, the preservation of the current model, which started back in the 1990s, has caused an extremely unstable state of the economy in the main industrial centers in the post-crisis period as well.
Systemic aspects of the crisis
According to the totality of the main qualitative and quantitative characteristics, and above all in terms of its consequences, the crisis quickly transformed into a systemic one. He called to life or strengthened tendencies and processes that were in a latent or inhibited state. Under his influence, they acquired a clearer and more structured expression, began to exert an ever more significant influence on the formation of the world development paradigm in its economic, ideological and geopolitical content. We can single out a number of key, in our opinion, systemic aspects of the last crisis.
Formation of a new configuration of centers of economic growth. The theme of shifting the economic balance of power in the world began to occupy one of the central places in the ongoing discussions about the development of the global economy in the post-crisis period. Despite the differences in quantitative estimates of the emerging trends, many researchers adhere to the point of view of the emergence of new centers of economic growth and influence. These shifts have become one of the key factors in the modern geo-economic process. And it's not just about China and India. Changes are taking place practically along the entire perimeter of developing countries. The share of the latter in global GDP (according to purchasing power parity) increased from 33.7 percent in 1980 to 43.4 percent in 2010. According to World Bank estimates, the outstripping trend will continue in the next five or more years 22 . The share of developing countries in world exports increased from 22 percent in 1980 to 45 percent in 2010, and in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, respectively, from 7 to 47 percent 23 .
Taking into account the current prevailing trends, it can be assumed that the shift in growth centers is not opportunistic, but long-term in nature. According to the results of many forecasts, in the next twenty years the balance of power in the world economy may change radically in favor of developing countries. According to the British branch of Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC), by 2020, the combined GDP of the seven largest emerging markets (Brazil, India, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Russia, Turkey) will exceed the GDP of the seven main industrial countries (USA, Japan, Germany, Great Britain). - UK, France, Italy, Canada). If in 2000 the total GDP (PPP) of the seven industrialized countries exceeded the size of the seven developing economies more than twice, then by 2007 the gap had narrowed to 60 percent, and by the end of 2010 to 35 percent. If the current trends continue, by 2020 the gap will be reduced to zero. And by 2030, the emerging seven will overtake the seven leading industrialized states by 35 percent.
Indeed, international connections are currently working already not only in the direction North-South, but also South-North. Emerging countries, not the advanced economies, were the driving force behind the recovery from the recession, notably Brazil, India, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and South Korea (accounting for about 55 percent of emerging market GDP) 24 . According to World Bank forecasts, from 2011 to 2025, developing economies will have an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent, while developed economies will only grow 2.325 percent. 25 . Until 2025, the growing power and influence of emerging markets will be the driving force.
Given the current trends, the forecast estimates noted above do not look unrealistic. However, as evidenced by empirical data, economic development is by no means always linear, and the actual dynamics of GDP may differ significantly from forecast indicators. So, until 1990, the question of Japan becoming the world's leading economy was actively discussed. But this did not happen, although the forecasts looked quite reasonable. In addition, one cannot ignore the fact that the growth of China and a number of other developing countries is to a certain extent influenced by the effect of a low base. The extensive model of their development also has an effect. There is still a high reserve of low-skilled labor force, which is actively involved in the production process. At the same time, the gap in the volume of per capita income, in the scale of poverty and poverty, in the levels of labor productivity and other socio-economic parameters remains quite significant. However, the current prevailing trends indicate the presence of serious shifts in the global geopolitical space.
Erosion of the unipolar world. At present, the growing economic power of China, favorable forecasts for the economic growth of India and a number of other fast-growing economies allow us to say that the world is in the stage of the formation of multipolarity and a gradual redivision of the political sphere. and economic influence. An increasing number of countries and regions are no longer mere objects of geopolitical processes, their desire to pursue their own policies is growing, often contradicting the strategy of the great powers. The qualitative difference of the current situation lies in the fact that the number of leading players in world politics has been replenished by new powers, regional groupings, international organizations that have a significant impact on world events.
The United States still remains the leading and most powerful power in the world, but the main feature of modern Another geopolitical process is the entry of China and India into the big leagues of global politics. A number of countries - Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea - also raised their status. More and more confidently declare themselves as important subjects of the world economy, such countries as Argentina, Mexico, South Africa The process of economic, social and political renewal of Brazil has noticeably accelerated, in particular. At the end of 2010, in terms of GDP (2.17 trillion dollars at PPP), it was ahead of Italy and came close to the UK (2.23) and France (2.19) 26 . Brazil is increasingly positioning itself as a "heavyweight" in the global economy and politics.
Against this background, there is a process of reducing the share of the United States in the global economy. In a number of quantitative parameters, China has already come close to the United States - like none of the American competitors in the entire 20th century. In 2008, the size of the Chinese economy (in terms of PPP) was 42.8 percent of the American one, and in 2010 it was 69.2 percent 27 . If China's economic growth continues, then by 2020 the economies will equalize (in terms of GDP), and by 2030 China will be ahead by about 20 percent. Such a scenario is highly probable and widely accepted. The share of other rising countries is also growing. So, India's GDP (PPP) in 2001was at the level of 51 percent of Japan's GDP, and in 2010 - 97 percent 28 .
The alignment of forces in the world economy is beginning to change, and this process will apparently continue. Prior to the onset of the crisis, the role of the United States as the center for coordinating global macroeconomic policy was practically not subjected to serious criticism.
However, the recession that began in December 2007 and the ongoing instability in the country weakened the US economy and called into question the US ability to continue to play the role of financial and economic leader. The United States is gradually ceasing to be the locomotive of the world economy.
Notably, in 2008, the US National Intelligence Council acknowledged for the first time that America's global power was indeed on a downward trajectory. In one of its periodic futuristic reports, "Global Trends 2025," the council cited the "unprecedented in world history shift of world wealth and economic power from West to East" as a major factor in the decline of "the comparative strength of the United States even in the military sphere. According to the council, "in terms of the size, speed and direction of the flow, the current transfer of wealth and economic influence from West to East is without precedent in modern history" 29 .
In a situation of weakening the prevailing positions of the West, the process of formation of new economic and political structures - BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Union of South American Nations (Unasur), etc. - has intensified, with their desire to reach the global level of development and decision making. As the practice of recent years has shown, today it is virtually impossible to resolve global issues unilaterally. New collective forums turned out to be in demand. One of them was the G20, which arose in the extreme conditions of the crisis. Concerns that the global economy is on brink of catastrophe, have accelerated the transition from the G7 to the G20 format, which includes the world's largest economies and the most important emerging national markets.
This expansion of economic coordination represents the recognition of a new group of global economic players. The creation of the "Group of Twenty" was an indirect confirmation of the fact that Western countries are not able to cope with the world economic problems alone. In essence, this became a reflection of the trend towards a rebalancing of forces in the world and its movement towards multipolarity.
Crisis of ideological concepts. One of the main consequences of the crisis was the growing doubt, not only in expert circles, but also in government circles, about the effectiveness of economic liberalism. In a number of cases, the question is raised of replacing the ideological concepts of the 20th century and the previously dominant orthodox theories and points of view regarding the conduct of macroeconomic policy 30 . The global economic crisis has undermined faith in the infallibility of markets.
We can talk about the weakening of the positions of supporters of the idea of the superiority of liberal capitalism and limiting the role of the state. The crisis has revealed systemic weaknesses inherent in the functioning of unregulated global markets. Thus, in the face of the threat of depression, Washington and other economically developed states went to the nationalization of failed backbone financial companies and banks, to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. The concept of monetarism was called into question, which is based on the position that a priori markets are competitive and the market system is able to automatically achieve macroeconomic equilibrium. At the height of the crisis, almost all the leading industrialized countries were forced to switch to "manual" management. Without significant government injections of funds into the economy and to support bankrupt financial institutions, most countries would be doomed to a financial collapse.
Under the influence of the crisis, the pendulum shifted from monetarism to the Keynesian concept of the role of the state in the formation and implementation of economic policy. According to P. Krugman, "the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, who analyzed the essence of the Great Depression, are now more significant than ever" 31 . In professional and public discussions, arguments in favor of recognizing specific functions for the state, requiring not only the establishment of the rules of the game in the market and control over their observance, but also direct work in the economic field, began to sound more and more convincing. More precisely, in those areas that private capital avoids due to their low profitability, high risks and long payback periods.
Aggravation of structural problems of the global financial system. Under the influence of the crisis, the issue of reforming the global financial architecture has reached a new level. The problem of the weakening of the positions of the US dollar has acquired the greatest urgency. The slow and unstable recovery of the US economy, the remaining budget A hefty deficit and growing public debt predetermined the growth of distrust in the ability of the dollar to serve as the world's reserve currency. It should be noted that the idea of introducing a global means of payment, not related to the national currency of any country, has been discussed for more than a dozen years. At one time, J. M. Keynes at the Bretton Woods Conference (1944) defended the idea of a world central bank with its own currency (bancor).
Under the influence of the crisis, the idea of improving the current monetary system has acquired concrete outlines in the form of proposals put forward. If until recently this issue was mainly academic in nature, today the relevant conclusions and recommendations are already being formulated within the framework of international organizations. The UNCTAD report for 2009 concluded that "the current world monetary system is inefficient, hinders the development of the world economy and is one of the main causes of the financial and economic crisis" 32 . This white paper from the multinational institution also emphasizes that the role of the dollar as the world's reserve currency must be re-evaluated. According to the organization's specialists, the new monetary system should not be based on any one or even several national currencies. As an alternative to the dollar, it is proposed to use special drawing rights (SDRs) issued by the IMF (created in 1969).
A similar conclusion was reached by the UN expert commission on the reform of the international monetary and financial system under the leadership of J. Stiglitz. The Commission spoke in favor of adopting a truly global reserve currency, "whose credibility and stability will not depend on the unpredictability of the economy and politics of a single country" 33 . These proposals were further developed in the ECOSOC report. According to UN experts, since the US dollar is not a stable store of value, one of the requirements for a reserve currency is “it is necessary to develop a new system that should be based on the issuance of international liquid funds, and not on the use of national -National currencies” 34 .
Critical statements about the existing monetary system, as well as proposals put forward to reduce the international status of the dollar, have quite real grounds, related, in particular, to the complexity of the financial and economic problems facing the United States. The dollar is not as strong now as it used to be. However, the question is far from being so clear-cut. Calls to find a replacement for the US currency seem elusive, especially in the short term. Benjamin Cohen, a professor at the University of California, explains, in particular, the current situation by the lack of a real alternative to the dollar at the moment. Paraphrasing W. Churchill's well-known statement about democracy, B. Cohen noted that "the dollar may turn out to be the worst solution, except for all the others" 35 .
At the same time, declarations about the change in the status of the dollar are beginning to be supplemented by concrete practical steps aimed at at least partial neutralization of the uncontrolled behavior of the dollar in the world currency markets. The desire to reduce dependence on the euro and the dollar received a real embodiment at the BRICS summit in Delhi (March 28-29, 2012). Two important documents were signed there: a general agreement on the provision of loans in national currencies and a multilateral agreement on the confirmation of letters of credit within the framework of the BRICS interbank cooperation mechanism (obligation to provide priority servicing of transactions of banks in these countries). This is the first step towards the transition to national currencies in mutual settlements. The agreement provides for the creation of basic mechanisms for the implementation of settlements and financing of projects in national currencies between the authorized banks of the BRICS participants.
In addition, the BRICS participants expressed their readiness to consider India's proposal to establish a South-South Development Bank to finance infrastructure and innovation projects in developing countries. Announcing the possibility of creating a supranational development institution and a mechanism for mutual lending, the leaders of the BRICS countries expressed their readiness to build their own structure capable of accumulating investment resources and directing them to those projects that are beneficial primarily to themselves. block.
Under the influence of the crisis, the problem of de-dollarization has acquired a rather high urgency. The need for the formation of a world currency unit has an objective character. The very logic of the globalization of economic activity does not correspond to the functioning of national currencies in the role of world money and ultimately undermines the foundations of such functioning. However, the ongoing debate over alternatives to the US dollar, including an increase in the role of the SDR, has so far not led to any meaningful results. The process of putting forward other alternative currencies will probably take a relatively long period of time. With significant differences in the interests of individual states (as well as large differences between the views of theoretical economists), achieving the goals of forming an international monetary system that would be based on the use of a universal supranational currency unit is, apparently, a targeted strategic setting for a long-term historical perspective. The most probable scenario seems to be the gradual decrease in the role of the dollar in world reserves and external settlements as the share of the USA in the world economy decreases. According to World Bank forecasts, the dollar will cease to be the main world currency by 2025. The WB report "Global Development Horizons 2011" notes that during this period a new multicurrency system may take shape: the US dollar will lose its dominance, the euro and yuan will equal its status 36 . This scenario is supported by the likelihood that the United States, the Eurozone countries and China will become the three main poles of economic growth by that time.
Under the influence of the crisis, the accents are also changing in the policy of international financial institutions, which are trying to adapt their activities to new imperatives.
In particular, if in the recent past capital controls introduced by some countries met with a strong negative reaction from the IMF, the crisis forced us to correct this established point of view. There is a growing understanding that an open capital market combined with an unregulated financial sector is a ticking time bomb. The collective work “Capital Inflows: The Role of Control”, published in 2010 by a group of IMF staff, recognizes the use of restrictive practices in relation to uncontrolled flows of foreign capital as a full-fledged anti-crisis policy tool that can strengthen the economic stability of developing countries. Among the logical measures, the authors of the report name taxes on financial transactions and on short-term external loans, reserving interest on loans in foreign currency, and requirements for the minimum allowable investment period 37 .
This opinion was recognized as the official point of view of the foundation (with certain reservations). The report of the Board of Directors of the IMF (December 2012) consolidates the new vision of the fund regarding the regulation of cross-border capital flows: “Full liberalization of financial flows cannot be considered a universal goal for all countries at all times. Temporary restrictions may be reasonable and useful during economic shocks, as well as when other means of monetary policy have been exhausted.” According to the document, “under certain conditions, measures designed to restrict capital flows can be useful and expedient” 38 .
The IMF's new approach is, in fact, a recognition of changing realities, including the growing weight of emerging market countries most vulnerable to speculative capital flows. The stated principles directly contradict the key postulates of the Washington Consensus, which until recently dominated the global financial sector.
Towards "Retooling World Development"
Thus, speaking about the nature and characteristics of the crisis, we can single out the following. First, the events of 2008-2009 testify, in essence, to the crisis of the global economy model represented by the current industrial centers. This is primarily about the United States, which until recently acted as the standard of the market economy, the leader of technological achievements and innovations, and, no less important, the source of ideas and concepts about the ways and forms of development of the world economy and the world order as a whole. This does not yet mean a cardinal undermining of the dominant position of the United States. Nevertheless, it is evidence of the weakening of the Western-centric world and the emergence on the world stage of new players on a global scale and the development of the post-American world. According to, for example, the well-known American scientist, author of the book "The End of History and the Last Man" F. Fukuyama and President of the Center for Global Development N. Birdsall, "the American version of capitalism, if it has not lost its reputation, then at least it is no longer dominant. The West, and especially the US, will no longer be seen as the only center of innovative socio-political thought. And when it comes to international organizations, the voices and ideas of the United States and Europe are less and less dominant.” 39 .
Secondly, the causes of the global recession are not limited to economics alone. The crisis is not, in the final analysis, purely economic. It has a more general basis - the degradation of the old and the formation of a new system of world order, which is accompanied by an exacerbation of anomalous phenomena in the real and financial sectors of the economy. This resulted in a deep and multilateral structural crisis that affected not only the economy, but also the political, ideological and other supporting structures of the modern world.
Thirdly, the urgency of the issue of entering a new level of interaction within the global economy has increased. The imperatives of sustainable development predetermine the need to create conditions and prerequisites for the formation of mutually beneficial and systemic ties between all groups of countries and regions. The crisis highlighted the growing importance of emerging markets. In this context, taking into account their interests and special needs, according to the ex-president of the World Bank R. Zoellick, “is no longer charity and solidarity, but a matter of self-interest of industrial states” 40 .
Discussions about the prospects and principles of building a global economy, taking into account the multipolar reality, remain relevant to this day, and the process of convergence of positions is still far from being completed, as it seems. Despite, however, the differences in approaches, the general idea prevails that it is necessary to come up with new principles of the world order that most adequately meet modern realities. According to F. Fukuyama, under the influence of the crisis "not only the largest Wall Street companies collapsed, but a certain set of ideas about capitalism collapsed" 41 .
In the context of continuing uncertainty and the clash of opposing tendencies, reaching a new equilibrium state will require more than simply adjusting national development strategies. Fundamental issues were put on the agenda - the development of new approaches to the formation of institutions and mechanisms at the global level that are adequate to the needs of sustainable socio-economic progress, taking into account such problems as environmental conservation, energy security, overcoming social inequality, and other pressing issues of our time. UN experts define this process as a "retooling" of world development, that is, "implementation of a fundamental reform of the mechanisms for managing the global economy and the development of a new paradigm of sustainable growth" 42 .
Anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy: international experience
"Anti-crisis government regulation of the real economic sector: international experience"
Golysheva Maria Olegovna
graduate student
GOU VPO Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
annotation: The real sector of the economy is one of the main objects of anti-crisis state regulation. The article defines the main elements and stages of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy; a comparison of the international experience of state regulation of the real sector in the context of the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 was made. and revealed the weaknesses of the Russian practice of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy during this period.
Summary:Real sector of economy is one of the major objects of anti-crisis government regulation. In this article the main elements and stages of anti-crisis government regulation of the real sector of economy are determined; the international experience of real economic sector government regulation under the global economic crisis conditions of 2008-2009 is compared and the week points of Russian anti-crisis government regulation of real sector of economy are defined.
Keywords:real sector of the economy, economic crisis, international economy, anti-crisis state regulation, anti-crisis program, balance of payments
key words:real sector of economy, economic crisis, international economy, anti-crisis government regulation, anti-crisis program, balance of payment
The real sector of the economy is one of the central objects of state regulation. The real sector is sectors of the economy that produce material goods, as well as intangible benefits of strategic or industrial purpose, including agriculture and fisheries, mining and manufacturing, construction, production and distribution of electricity, water, gas, transport and communications. The real sector belongs to the macroeconomic block of state regulation. Depending on the phase of the economic cycle, anti-crisis, stabilization and stimulating state regulation of the real sector of the economy can be distinguished. Anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector is a system of forms, methods, tools of public administration aimed at analyzing and forecasting crisis processes in the real sector of the economy, reducing the negative consequences of the crisis for economic entities in the real sector and using the accumulated data for further development of the sector's economy. From the point of view of a systematic approach, anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector is a system that includes the following key elements: regulation priorities, goals and objectives of anti-crisis regulation, objects and subjects of state regulation, areas of anti-crisis support for the real sector, methods and tools of state regulation, risk assessment and monitoring the results of anti-crisis regulation of the real sector. The content and nature of the main elements of the state system of anti-crisis regulation of the real sector determine its effectiveness. Consider these elements:
- Priorities. They represent the strategic guidelines of state regulation, through the prism of which there is an impact on the real sector of the economy and with which all actions of the authorities regarding the regulation of the real sector should be correlated.
- Targets and goals. Based on the set priorities, they determine the goals that they plan to achieve as a result of the RSE regulation, and the tasks as ways to achieve these goals.
- Objects of state regulation. The objects of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector can be economic agents, entire economic complexes or economic processes that are affected by the tools of anti-crisis state regulation. Such objects can be classified into three groups according to the following criteria - the scale of the business, the sector of the economy, economic entities.
- The subjects are the executive bodies of state power, the central bank, systemically important state banks, as well as institutions and development funds, commercial banks and credit organizations.
- Directions are strategic areas of anti-crisis state regulation, based on the declared priorities and goals. The enlarged areas of support and development of the real sector are as follows:
- Creation of financial incentives for enterprises
- Support and development of priority enterprises and / or industries
- Stimulation of domestic demand, incl. consumer and government
- Development of small and medium business
- Improving the competitive environment
- Stimulation of the labor market
- Development of human capital
- Development of science and increase of innovative capital
Depending on the degree impact on the real sector of the economy these directions can be divided into direct and indirect.
- Methods of anti-crisis state regulation are specific methods for implementing the intended goals and directions of anti-crisis regulation. For example, reducing the burden on business can be carried out by reducing the tax, tariff, administrative burden, etc.
- Tools for the implementation of anti-crisis regulation are practical ways to influence the economic processes and economic agents of the RSE. To implement anti-crisis regulation, the state has at its disposal a whole range of various tools for regulating the economy, related to various types of public policy, namely: budgetary, tax, monetary, investment, industrial, customs and tariff, macroeconomic, exchange rate, administrative. These tools can be classified into direct and indirect according to the criterion impact on economic agents real sector.
- Risk assessment of state regulation. Such risks can be divided into endogenous, emanating from shortcomings in the internal development of the economic system, and exogenous, from external factors.
- Monitoring the implementation of measures within the framework of anti-crisis state regulation is one of the ways to eliminate endogenous risks and increase the effectiveness of the measures being implemented.
Based on the characteristics of the key elements, three main stages of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector can be distinguished: at the first stage, setting priorities, setting goals, defining tasks and directions of anti-crisis regulation; at the second stage, the definition of methods, tools, objects, subjects and the identification of risks of state anti-crisis regulation of the RSE; at the third stage, minimizing the risks of implementing the planned activities and monitoring the results (see Figure 1).
Figure 1 - Stages of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy
The nature of anti-crisis policy determines the set and specifics of elements of anti-crisis regulation of the real sector, depending on the characteristics of the economy and the conditions of pre-crisis development of a particular state. We will consider the features and differences of state regulation of the real sector in the context of the global economic crisis using the example of the countries of the USA, China, Japan, Russia and the EU region.
We can single out the following factors that influenced the specifics of the anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector in various countries: causes of the economic crisis in the real sector of the economy , the size of the real sector of the economy , development of institutions of state power , degree of impact of the crisis on the real sector of the economy, economic growth rates of pre-crisis development , availability of resources in the economy for the implementation of anti-crisis policy.
The reasons for the transition of the crisis to the real sector of the economy for each country were different. If for the USA and Europe the main reason for the transition of the crisis to the real sector was the crisis in the banking sector and the contraction of liquidity in the economy, then for China and Japan, the main blow was caused by the contraction of world demand. In Russia, these factors were supplemented by a decline in energy prices, which halted a large influx of funds into the economy, as well as an outflow of foreign money.
To compare and evaluate the effectiveness of anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy of selected countries during the crisis of 2008-2009. Let's use the following criteria:
- assessment of pre-crisis economic development
- assessment of the recovery of macroeconomic indicators of the real sector
- the cost of the anti-crisis program
- content of the anti-crisis program
The pre-crisis conditions for the development of the real sector in the countries under consideration depended on the country's position in the international economy. This determined the priorities for the development of the real sector, the strengths and weaknesses of economic development and the main reason for the beginning of the crisis in the real sector of the country.
The US and the European Union are the world's capital markets and importers of finished products. US and EU current account balance at the end of 2008 was negative and amounted to -700 billion dollars. and -200 billion dollars. respectively. The build-up of a negative trade balance in the United States has been intensifying since the 2000s as a result of the ongoing economic policy, which was based on all kinds of demand stimulation. The US capital account before the crisis was positive ($750 billion) due to portfolio investment. The overheating of the US financial system was fueled by large capital inflows from developing countries (as evidenced by a positive US capital account), low interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, and a rapid rise in unreliable derivatives.
In the EU, the balance of payments from 2003-2008. balanced around zero - a small positive balance on the current account ($40 billion in 2007) was offset by a small negative balance on the financial account (-$35 billion in 2007). In 2008 Capital outflows from the region declined sharply and inflows increased as European investors demanded performance, resulting in a capital account surplus of around $210 billion.
In Japan, among the developed countries, opposite trends were observed. The current account increased its positive value, reaching about 180 billion dollars. in 2008, and the capital account developed with a negative balance of about -200 billion dollars. at the same time. Consequently, Japan became an exporter of products and capital in the world market.
China entered the crisis with a trade surplus of $440 billion. China's fan account is also at the end of 2008. was in surplus. The positive balance was due to the inflow of foreign direct investment. According to the IMF in 2000-2005. the inflow of foreign direct investment into China accounted for about 20% of all direct investment in developing countries. This position was the result of China's state economic policy, focused on stimulating exports. Income from exports, consisting of more than 50 thousand items, is at least 80% of China's foreign exchange earnings. The development model of China's economy is based on the expansion of exports of finished products and capital investments from the state and external investors.
Russia in the pre-crisis period increased the positive balance on the current account (more than 3 times since 2000), secured by an increase in prices in the world commodity markets, a decrease in the negative balance of services and investment income. Net exports have fallen from 13% to 1% of GDP since 2000. due to outpacing growth of imports over exports, a decrease in capital outflow, an improvement in the balance of services and an increase in investment income. This led to an increase in domestic demand due to an increase in household income and consumption and an increase in capital investment. Account of financial operations at the end of 2008 was positive. Inflow of investments to Russia for the period 2000-2007. amounted to about 94.7 billion dollars. Consequently, Russia in the world market is an exporter of raw materials and an importer of capital - primarily corporate foreign loans.
The considered trends indicate that the economies of Russia and China, as developing countries, were more stable at the beginning of the financial crisis than the economies of developed countries, primarily the US and the EU. The main advantages of the position of China and Russia in the pre-crisis period were high economic growth rates, large growth potential for domestic consumption, large foreign exchange reserves, and the absence of a large number of “bad” financial assets that undermine the financial system.
Thus, in the pre-crisis period, most of the world income, secured by rising prices for raw materials and cheap financial resources, was redistributed in countries exporting raw materials or finished products, and then placed on world capital markets, primarily in the US and the EU.
The country's position in the global economic space determined the strengths and weaknesses of economic development, the reasons for the transition of the crisis to the real sector, and the priorities of the anti-crisis policy to support the real sector. The comparison results are shown in Table 3.4.
Table 1 - Characteristics of the US, EU, Japan, China, Russia and the priorities of the anti-crisis state. regulation of the real sector of the economy
Thus, if in the US and the EU the crisis in the real sector passed due to the crisis in the financial sector through the mechanism of contraction of lending and falling domestic demand, then for the economies of China and Japan, the main reason was the decline in global demand. In Russia, the fall in income from hydrocarbon exports and the outflow of foreign capital led to a drop in liquidity in the economy and a crisis in the banking sector, which led to a narrowing of lending to enterprises in the real sector. The economic situation of the country and the causes of the crisis formed the basis of the anti-crisis state regulation of the real sector of the economy.
The coincidence of the priorities of anti-crisis regulation, aimed at eliminating the fundamental cause of the crisis, due to the "weak sides" of the country in the international division of labor, with the actual implemented priorities of regulation of the real sector is one indicator of the effectiveness of the selected anti-crisis state regulation of the RSE.
The next criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of anti-crisis regulation of the RSE is the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. To assess the recovery of the entire economy and the real sector, we considered the dynamics of GDP indicators, the accumulated production index, fixed capital accumulation, exports, imports, final consumption, household spending, unemployment, characterizing the situation in the real sector and the recovery of consumer demand in the country. An analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators allows us to draw the following conclusions. The anti-crisis regulation of the US real sector was the most effective, based on the ratio of the depth of the decline in economic indicators and the post-crisis growth rate of economic recovery. The recession in the US started earlier than in other countries, as the US is the starting point of the crisis. GDP decline in 2008 amounted to -3.32%, production decline -34.02% , and the decrease in investments in fixed assets of 17.84% is one of the largest values for the countries under consideration. However, already in 2009, when the world economy was plunging into recession, positive changes began in the US economy. In the real sector, there was an increase in production at the level of 3.18% per year, while the decline in GDP amounted to only -0.54%, which indicates a gradual recovery of the economy from recession. Although, before a full recovery, it was still necessary to restore the volume of domestic consumption, imports and capital investments, which in 2009 were still negative. In 2010 positive dynamics in all indicators was restored.
In second place in terms of the ratio of the depth of the recession and the recovery of economic indicators is Russia. The main consequences of the crisis in Russia occurred in 2009. The fall in GDP amounted to 3.0%, the decrease in the production index -9.3%, the decrease in fixed capital investment -43% (the largest figure for all countries considered), and the decrease in net exports -24%, while exports and imports decreased by 16% and 13% respectively. However, already in 2010. all considered macroeconomic indicators returned to a positive trend with almost pre-crisis growth rates. In 2009 GDP growth was 4.4%, production growth was 8.2%, and the increase in investment in fixed assets was 32%. Of course, a major contribution to the recovery of the Russian economy was made by the increase in energy prices, which ensured an additional inflow of funds into the economy and expanded opportunities for the implementation of the anti-crisis program. However, it is obvious that the resources from the export of hydrocarbons do not immediately reach the real sector, and most of them end up in the financial sector. Consequently, without prompt intervention by the authorities in the regulation of economic processes in the real sector, the recession could have dragged on for a longer period.
China stands apart in the processes under consideration. First, because as such there was no recession in China, only a slight slowdown in growth rates. So the growth of the production index in 2008. amounted to 9.93%, and the increase in fixed capital 24.7%. In 2009 production growth amounted to 8.73%, and the increase in fixed capital 18.9%. GDP growth in 2009 was observed at the level of 9.57% even in the face of a decrease in exports and imports at the level of 18% and 13.7%, respectively. Secondly, the assessment of China's economic recovery is hampered by the lack of statistical data - official data are very late in time, and those that are in doubt, in particular, the 3% unemployment rate already described in Chapter 2 do not inspire confidence even for IMF experts.
Based on the analysis of macroeconomics, the Japanese economy, especially the real sector, suffered the most from the crisis. The stimulating policy did not bring the desired results. The slow economic growth of the "Japanese trap" was superimposed by the recession of the global crisis. As a result, the decline in the production index in 2009 was 91%, and the fall in GDP was 4.82% (the largest decline of all the countries under consideration). At the same time, despite the measures taken, the recession in the real sector continued in 2010. - the decrease in the accumulated production index was 52%, and the fall in GDP -2.95%. The recession in the real sector continued into 2011 as well. The decrease in the production index amounted to 70% compared to the level of 2010. Investments in fixed assets only in 2011. showed a weak positive trend at the level of 0.27%, declining throughout 2008-2010.
The extent of the impact of the crisis on the European Union is comparable to that of Japan. GDP decline in 2009 amounted to -4.3%, the decrease in the accumulated production index -66.3% compared to the level of 2008, the reduction in investment in fixed assets -20%. The implemented policy of supporting the real sector stopped the rate of decline in production, but did not lead to growth and recovery of pre-crisis indicators. Reduction of the accumulated production index in 2010 relative to the level of 2009 amounted to -34.5%, and in 2011. -15.44% compared to 2010 However, indicators such as GDP, investment in fixed assets, final consumption, exports and imports have shown positive dynamics since 2010, which indicates the potential for growth in production in the real sector. The relative slow recovery of the economy of the real sector in the EU is due to the current debt crisis and the presence of less developed countries in the EU. Solving these problems diverts large resources from the implementation of strategic and tactical tasks. At the same time, it should be taken into account that these are aggregated indicators and individual EU countries, such as Austria, Germany, France, Great Britain and others. The economy is close to restoring the pre-crisis level.
Consequently, in terms of the rate of recovery of the real sector and the economy, anti-crisis support for the real sector of Russia is at the level of the United States and China.
Based on the criterion the cost of the anti-crisis support program Russia's real sector of the economy is at the level of developed countries.
Table 2. Comparison of the cost of anti-crisis support for RSE
Note: *GDP indicator is calculated as an average value for 2008-2009. – the time of adoption and implementation of the anti-crisis policy
The absolute value of the cost of anti-crisis support for the real sector of Russia is less than in other countries - about 188 billion dollars. However, the ratio of the cost of the anti-crisis program to support the real sector to GDP is about 8% at the EU level (9%). For comparison, in the US this figure is about 5%, in Japan 6%. The leader in this indicator is China, which is typical for developing countries (see diagram).
Figure 2 - Diagram. Correlation between the cost of anti-crisis support for the real sector of the economy and GDP
However, in order to assess the anti-crisis state regulation of the RSE of Russia, in comparison with other countries, not the quantitative, but the qualitative side of the measures taken is of great importance. According to this criterion, Russia is inferior to many foreign countries.
To compare the quality of the anti-crisis program to support the real sector for the countries under consideration, we use the following criteria: priorities of the anti-crisis state regulation of the RSE, directions of the measures taken, the instruments of state regulation used, recipients of anti-crisis support, strategic nature of the program.
With regard to the direction of anti-crisis support for the real sector, the following key shortcomings can be identified. In the Russian anti-crisis program, there is a clear lack of development and funding of the following key areas in comparison with the international experience of the analyzed countries:
- infrastructure projects
- construction of new industrial facilities
- energy
- investments in science and increase of innovative potential
- investment in human capital
With regard to the development of infrastructure projects, Russia ranks last in the list of countries under consideration. In China and Japan, funds allocated for the implementation of infrastructure projects amounted to 24.6% and 21.4%, respectively, in the USA 13%, in the EU 7% of the total cost of the anti-crisis program to support the real sector, in Russia 1.6% . At the same time, if in Russia the only realizable area of infrastructure development is transport, then in the United States, in addition to the development of transport infrastructure, it is planned to develop rural and urban infrastructure, communication and information, water supply, and energy infrastructure, for which 28.5 billion dollars were allocated (see Application). In the EU, special attention was paid to the Internet and information and communication, which was allocated about 25 billion euros. The main direction of infrastructure development in China is transport and industrial infrastructure, including the construction of new industrial facilities, for which in total about 144 billion dollars were spent.
Table 3 - Financing of Energy and Infrastructure Projects
In the 1990s in the works of many Western researchers, special attention was paid to the development of the main provisions of the crisis management strategy. The main task of these developments is to overcome the "dilemma of goals", i.e. contradictions between protecting one's own interests and trying to avoid measures that could cause unwanted escalation ( George. 1991. R. 22). In this regard, defensive and offensive strategies for managing crises are distinguished.
A. George describes five offensive strategies for resolving a crisis situation: 1) blackmail; 2) limited probing; 3) restrained pressure; four) fait accompli(a fait accompli) and 5) slow exhaustion. Some of these lishi strategies threaten actions that could cause damage (such as blackmail), while others involve various measures of influence on the enemy, differing in the degree of force used (or threatened).
Each of these offensive strategies seeks to make the enemy more pliable and reduce the risk of escalation. throwing
the challenged party may begin to convince the adversary that its objectives in the crisis are limited; that the action taken does not imply a deeper, pervasive hostility towards the enemy, which will later be expressed in additional challenges; that in the future, after the current crisis is resolved, positive relations will be established.
The defending side has a number of strategies designed to thwart the enemy's attempts to change the status quo in their favor. When it becomes important for the defending side that its response may cause an undesirable escalation, it too is faced with the need for political regulation of the crisis. The defending side needs to take some steps against harming the threatened interests, but at the same time avoids anything that could escalate the war (or higher levels of hostilities).
There are seven types of defensive strategies: 1) coercive diplomacy; 2) limited escalation of involvement to establish rules of the game more favorable to the defending side plus attempts to keep the opponent from escalating in response; 3) tit-for-tat retaliation without escalation plus containment of escalation by the opponent; 4) accepting "testing potentials" within the restrictive rules of the game chosen by the opponent, which initially appear to be unfavorable for the defending side; 5) drawing a line; 6) demonstration of conviction and determination in order to prevent miscalculation of the challenging party; 7) actions and proposals that help buy time and provide an opportunity to explore the terms of a negotiated settlement of the crisis, terms that could satisfy some (if not all) of the requirements of the challenging side (ibid. R. 377-394).
World strategies
Crisis avoidance policy also involves several types of strategies. A realistic strategy is connected with the need to establish a balance of power, in which the mutual deterrence of each other's aggressive aspirations by the most powerful actors contributes to the preservation of peace and stability in international relations. Neorealists, paying attention to the importance perception each other's international actors, attach great importance to the goals recognition from other actors. French
researcher J.-F. Ferrier calls it one of main goals participants in international relations (for more details see: Ferrier. 1996. P.121–130). Indeed, without the recognition of others, international actors cannot achieve more secondary goals. This applies, for example, to socio-political communities or political movements striving for an independent state status. For them, recognition from other states and generally recognized IGOs (primarily from the UN) is associated with the possibility of legitimate activity as an autonomous, independent actor. This is what all the former colonial countries, and the former Soviet republics, and the PLO, and Maskhadov's supporters, who were striving to obtain at least partial recognition of Chechnya as an independent player on the international field, were striving for in the first place. States that have a recognized status and are obliged to abide by the rules of the game (for example, UN decisions, bilateral and multilateral treaties and agreements, etc.), for which, for economic or political reasons, it is beneficial to show their recognition to political movements, separatist forces or quasi-states that seek it, forced (together with the "candidates" for recognition) to look for various tricks for this. For example, Taiwan, which is not recognized as an independent state, has trade, economic, cultural, and partly political relations with many countries, which are maintained through its "private agencies" in these countries. At the same time, in an effort to preserve their territorial integrity, states zealously ensure that the territories to which they extend their sovereignty, or separatist movements, do not receive recognition from other countries and IGOs.
The significance of the problem of recognition is also evidenced by the fact that the stability of international relations may depend on its solution. For example, the hasty recognition of Croatia and Slovenia by Germany, which was ahead of the EU in this, became a source of disagreements and contradictions in international relations that continue to this day. According to J.-F. Ferrier, this recognition was one of the causes of a long drama: the so-called commonality without identity, i.e. the territory inhabited by Serbs, Croats and Muslims accumulates the problems of other Yugoslav provinces that do not have a sufficient degree of civilizational unity ( Ferrier. 1996. R. 129-131). "The international community," argues J.-F. Ferrier, "having shown the rare speed of its reaction, may have shown excessive zeal in its humanitarianism" (ibid. R. 130).
The question of recognition is central to one of the varieties of grand strategy, world strategies. "Pacifying Recognition Strategy", as opposed to a balance of power strategy, aims to contain not so much the power of another state (or other states) as its fear (see on this: Osgood. 1962). Achieving this goal / involves the use of a wide variety of means: mutual official recognition of each other in writing (examples of which were the German-German Treaty of 1972, the Final Act of the CSCE of 1975, the Oslo Treaty of 1993, the Dublin Treaty of 1997) ; taking into account each other's "symbolic interests", especially those related to national identity (holy places, national symbols, historical traditions, etc.); persistent efforts to establish ties with the "enemy" and gradual concessions as a measure of confidence and disarmament ( Osgood. 1962; Lindemann. 2000. P. 529). "Neoidealist" A. Wendt, opposing the considered approach to the strategy of deterrence (which is associated with the risk of creating a security dilemma), assures that the latter can significantly change the "intersubjective structure" of international relations. As one example, he calls the policy of openness to the outside world, which in the mid-80s. M. Gorbachev spent the 20th century and which made it possible to radically change the nature of international relations ( Wendt. 1994).
Appeasing Recognition Strategy was described by C. Osgood. Its advantages are seen in the fact that it is based not on unilateral concessions, but on reciprocity. It combines "carrot and stick" and thus provides an opportunity for a return to a policy of closeness in case gradual concessions are misinterpreted. In other words, she is not predisposed to "gifts" without tangible reciprocity. Another advantage of this strategy, its supporters see, is that its failure can cost the adopting state relatively inexpensively: being "gradual", it involves the implementation of measures that are mostly symbolic in the initial stages ( Lindemann. 2000. R. 529).
Second variety peace strategies comes from the theory of democratic peace. Its supporters, convinced that democratic regimes are more peaceful than totalitarian or authoritarian ones, propose to "promote" democracy in more and more countries (for more details, see, for example: Risse-Kappen Th. 1996. P. 401–404). This strategy (for the US it is an integral part of the expansion strategy) will be considered in more detail in the chapter on international security.
Strategy and diplomacy
Until the middle of the XX century. strategy in the theoretical and practical sense was considered the exclusive property of military art and wars (see: chrysalis. 1980, p. 126). This view now appears to be erroneous. The permanent traditional interests of the states - security and prosperity - could be realized only with a favorable balance of forces. Therefore, the traditional means of achieving goals was not only war, but also a "diplomatic-strategic game" aimed at establishing such a ratio. The role of strategy in this case was to resist the pressure of stronger actors through diplomatic means, as well as to compensate for its own geopolitical or demographic shortcomings. Thus, when applied to states, strategy and diplomacy can be considered in a narrow sense. In this case, the strategy will be a set of means intended for the preparation and implementation of a military victory, and diplomacy will be a set of means of direct interaction between governments, which are used primarily in peacetime (during a war, diplomatic relations between belligerent countries, as a rule, are broken) . In a broad sense (as can be judged on the basis of what was said above), the opposition between strategy and diplomacy as the main means of interstate interactions is relative: grand strategy includes not only military, but also diplomatic means.
There are several functions diplomacy. The main ones are communication and information. An integral element of the information function is the propaganda function, which also has independent significance. Propaganda influences both the given state and third parties, as well as public opinion in order to sway it in its favor. We list other functions of diplomacy: a) settlement conflicts; b) permission problems; c) expansion or facilitation of interstate relations; G) negotiations and agreement on specific issues; e) general software decision management in the field of foreign policy.
Among forms diplomacy are as follows: public, or open; secret, or secret; mixed(confidential negotiations between diplomats, accompanied or completed by public declarations, information about agreements reached, etc.). Special mention should be made of secret diplomacy, which traditionally represents an inevitable and therefore necessary means of intergovernmental interactions. Politicians,
adhering to idealistic positions (for example, V. Wilson, M. Gorbachev), and their supporters, speaking of "immorality" secret agreements overlook two circumstances; First, it's only about form, which in itself does not carry mandatory immorality, and secondly, the process of switching only to open agreements, as a rule, has always nullified the benefits of diplomacy, since in this case purely propaganda functions (often they still flourish today in speeches in the General Assembly and the UN Security Council).
Also allocate parliamentary diplomacy, which is the regular meetings of an international body, such as the UN, which has permanent representatives of member states, as well as informal meetings and discussions of special envoys of heads of state. In its turn, direct diplomacy These are high-level meetings, as well as communication of top officials through electronic communication channels. Unilateral diplomacy- these are direct contacts of heads of state or their representatives. If their communication begins to be carried out through the largest international organizations, such as the UN or UNESCO, then this is already multilateral diplomacy. Finally, one of the most common forms of diplomacy in recent years is shuttle diplomacy- visits by the first eggs of the states or their special representatives of their allies, as well as discussions of a third party with the participants in the conflict directly in the zone of its existence.
Main trends in the development of diplomacy are as follows: larger states are increasingly seeking to conduct business not so much through embassies as through special envoys; the proportion of mixed, parliamentary, direct and shuttle (moreover, as a rule, with the participation of "top officials") diplomacy is increasing; strengthening the role and status negotiations, turning into an independent means of interaction between international actors.
At the same time, there is an increasing development unconventional diplomacy. "When one thinks of diplomacy," writes J. Ross, "they imagine Talleyrand, Metternich or Kissinger, who make big bets in a game whose price is human lives." Indeed, as J. Ross notes, in the logic of the Westphalian system, it is the states that control the means of violence, therefore the role of diplomats is only to promote the national interests of their countries using persuasion or threats. The dominant position in the regional hierarchies, in particular in Europe, provided ample opportunities for both diplomatic pressure and for forceful actions in the event of the failure of the first. However, the end of the Cold War, American hegemony in matters
security, globalization is fundamentally changing the role of diplomacy. Today it is expressed in terms of cost-benefit, and its fate is decided in Washington, because it is there that the decision is ultimately made to destroy someone financially without risking shocks to the world market as a whole (see: Ross. 2000).
The "commercialization" of diplomacy - shifting the focus from military security and alliance politics to international activities, the main meaning of which is the conquest of markets and attraction of investments - increases the role of new international actors. Central bankers, finance ministers and trade ministers, who previously hid in the shadow of foreign ministers, are coming to the forefront of international life. Non-state actors such as the media, multinational firms, investment firms, foreign exchange operators, private bankers, policy think tanks play at least the same role as governments. At the same time, within the framework of neoliberal ideology, this "commercialization" is often accompanied by assertions that the content of these processes is the dissemination of the principles of maintaining peace, democracy, human rights and the universal achievements of civilization. The position on the role of force as a means for international actors to achieve their goals and defend and promote their interests has become one of the most discussed in international political science. Clarification of the position on the role of force involves consideration of the content of the very concept of "force" and its interpretations by representatives of different theoretical trends.
strategies confrontation, then there is a conflict" (8). A close understanding of international conflict is also characteristic of other authors (9). Differences in the interpretation of the content of the concept of "international conflict" are also reflected in approaches to analyzing it as a phenomenon of international life. As already noted, one of the most traditional among them is the approach from the standpoint of " strategic research".
strategies its application, and finally, approaches to the creation of anti-missile systems. Fifty years later, having created about 25 thousand only strategic nuclear warheads, the nuclear powers came to the inevitable conclusion that the use of nuclear weapons means not only the destruction of the enemy, but also guaranteed suicide. Moreover, the prospect of nuclear escalation has sharply limited the possibility of using
strategies foreign policy behavior based on military force, or will there arise some system that is different both from the bipolar one and from the one that preceded it, where military force will acquire in many respects new dimensions and functions? These issues have become the subject of scientific analysis and heated political discussions in Russia and around the world. At the same time, academic developments often turned out to be closely related.
strategies development. The decisive factors for the vast majority of Southeast Asian countries were education, the training of a skilled workforce, and, in a broad sense, the entire social sphere. Without solving these problems, they will not be able to move on to a new stage of scientific and technological revolution, to maintain the achievements of past years. Therefore, the new generation of Asian leaders is linking the future of their countries with the further reorganization of the system
strategies and joint programs aimed at achieving a common goal for all - ensuring environmentally sustainable balanced development. A special role in solving global problems belongs to international organizations. Their history goes back hundreds of years. But the real breakthrough in this area of international relations occurred after the Second World War, when the UN and its
strategy economic and political rapprochement of the member countries is aimed at turning the organization into an influential regional pole of the system of international relations. In 1992 A decision was made to form an ASEAN Free Trade Area within a 15-year period. In 1995, within the framework of ASEAN, the Treaty on the Establishment of a Nuclear-Free Zone in Southeast Asia was signed. A characteristic feature of ASEAN is
strategies, influence on public opinion, as well as the organization of human and material resources that could contribute to the resolution of the conflict. He, based on the works of his predecessors, also formulated the tasks of this direction, namely: - the formation of working relations between representatives of the warring parties on a personal level; - increasing the adequacy
strategies The United States in the 1990s was influenced both by the already noted ideological and theoretical approaches, and by changes in the domestic and international situation. And while the Clinton administration is often criticized for the lack of a coherent “big strategies, main contours of the new strategies have already been clearly identified not only at the doctrinal, but also at the political level. Based on official foreign policy
strategic resources seek to play the role of a "flywheel of stability", in the words of Assistant to the President for National Security S. Berger. “No other country,” Berger notes, “has the military muscle, diplomatic skill, and self-confidence needed to mediate disputes, persuade opposing sides to negotiate, and help
strategies to the new situation and the development of new relations with the countries that were part of the Warsaw Pact. Initiation of the policy adaptation process and strategies NATO was laid down by the London session of the NATO High Level Council (July 1990). At the same time, the alliance responded to a number of major challenges faced by the organization. 1. Change in the military-political situation, disappearance of the danger of a sudden
There are different ideas about the role of the state in the conditions of market development of the economy. There is a point of view about the minimum possible state intervention in economic processes. Market mechanisms regulate all trends in the development of the economy. This is seen as a positive role of the market, and it is believed that the state, by its intervention, can only violate its regulatory processes.
But there is another point of view. The state cannot be in absolute isolation from the economy, being objectively one of the elements of the country's economic system. And the question lies not so much in the problem of interference, but in the nature and form of the state's participation in economic life, in the functions of the state that contribute to the sustainable and anti-crisis development of the economy. At the same time, the participation of the state is determined by the concrete reality of the processes of economic development, the size, scale, features, and the state of the economy.
The participation of the state in the economic life of the country is manifested mainly in its function of regulation, which characterizes one of the main functions of management. But regulation is not the full management of all its functions, it is the provision and maintenance of certain conditions for economic development, which are carried out taking into account market mechanisms, but do not negate their actions. On the contrary, the regulatory role of the state can be expressed in supporting the operation of market mechanisms.
Based on this, it can be stated that there is an objective possibility and necessity for state regulation of the processes of anti-crisis development of the economy.
The opportunity is expressed in the fact that government bodies through their legislative activities create a legal field for the functioning of the economy. In addition, the state has large economic resources, which, if necessary, can be used to support the banking system or individual economic entities.
The need for state regulation is manifested in the need to maintain the potential for economic development in the context of escalating crisis situations. The state must prevent the destruction of the economic system. This is its purpose and role.
The regulatory activity of the state has certain boundaries and is manifested in the following factors
- 1. Motivating the development of innovative transformation programs aimed at positive changes in economic development trends. These can be transformations in the field of personnel management, forms of organization and conditions of competition, in the assessment of the most important lifestyle factors, in the sphere of material consumption. Such transformations cannot but influence the organization of production and its financial activity, the relations between industry and banks, the relations between money, credit and accumulation. This is not a complete list of problems that contain the regulatory activities of the state to motivate the development of innovations.
- 2. Determining the conditions for the use and dissemination of innovations. After all, innovations can be not only useful, but also useless, and also premature, when the conditions for them at the micro or macro level have not yet matured, when organizations are not yet ready to accept them. Therefore, the question of the factors that determine the perception and dissemination of innovations in the conditions of the danger of a crisis is very important.
- 3. Definition of differences between local and global innovative transformations. A distinction should be made between incremental innovations within an existing innovation system and the transformations that drive its transformation. The new can be superimposed on the old, it is possible to make a transition from one method of regulation to another in the process of generational change, and this applies not only to personnel management, but also to the use of buildings, structures, and equipment.
- 4. Establishing system compatibility of simultaneous transformations. After all, the ongoing transformations may either not lead to the goal, or cause unpredictable consequences. Therefore, in anti-crisis management, it is necessary to assess how consistent and effective the transformations will be in relation to the goals of socio-economic development, how situations of disequilibrium in microeconomics are resolved, what determines the combination of partial compromises or new institutions, how they affect the regulatory system as a whole, whether they are compatible with each other mechanisms for the distribution of capital, labor, money, loans.
- 5. The state is also carrying out organizational and structural transformations, which are manifested in the strengthening of the administrative mechanism of anti-crisis management. The direct contact of the population with the state occurs when public services are provided to the population. For most citizens, this is the only opportunity for direct contact with the state. The population judges the effectiveness of crisis management by the extent to which its consequences are reflected in their daily lives.
When carrying out socio-economic transformations, there is often a desire to transfer to the country the principles of economic development that are common in completely different geographical and historical boundaries. Whereas there are well-known examples of the practice of socio-economic development, indicating that the systems of functioning of the economy differ in time and space. An example is the various options for economic development in Germany, the USA, Sweden, France, and Japan.
The market economy is not an end in itself, but a means of economic development. Therefore, the efforts of the state should be focused on finding ways to maximize the use of the existing scientific, technical and production potential, the preservation and development of human capital, and the provision of broad social support for all socio-economic transformations.
In accordance with this, the state should pursue an active policy of industrial and social development of the country. Particular attention should be paid to the problem of forming the composition of the necessary institutions, without which the market economy cannot function normally. Compliance with this provision is very important for Russia. The market is seen as a self-regulating economic system. But this does not mean that market mechanisms are absolutely independent of the state, which should determine the conditions for their effectiveness, help to clean up from corruption and mafia formations.
It is very interesting and significant that in many capitalist countries the main factors that enabled mass production and consumption after the Second World War are now working in the opposite direction - exacerbating the structural crisis. This is especially noticeable in many European countries.
Unraveling the mechanism for implementing development and subsequent decline is one of the most urgent tasks today. The works of many prominent scientists of the world are devoted to it. And for Russia, understanding this phenomenon, as well as the entire modern theory of economic development regulation, is of enduring importance.
The main problem is the interaction between the government and the market. This is not a question of whether or not the state should intervene in the affairs of the economy. World experience confirms that the market of competing sellers is still the best way to effectively organize the production and distribution of goods and services. However, the market cannot develop in a vacuum; it needs a legal and regulatory framework.
It is the state that forms such a basis for development, protecting and protecting property rights, creating legal and other regulatory systems, promoting effective entrepreneurial activity of citizens and preserving the environment. The market is diverse in its typological features and forms. The state takes this into account, using various approaches and methods for regulation.
The activity of the state should not necessarily be expressed only in the form of regulation of private activity, take the form of financial support or transfers of goods and services. Other manifestations of his activity are possible.
The relationship between the state and the market manifests itself in four aspects: human development, domestic economy, international economy and macroeconomic policy. These areas of activity are closely interrelated. If the domestic economy is not excessively skewed, it contributes to the formation of human capital. At the same time, education makes the domestic economy more productive because trained professionals enhance the ability to absorb new technologies in production.
A stable macroeconomy influences the price system and reduces the pain of inflation. The effectiveness of microeconomics determines the ability to keep inflation low. Enterprises have less need for subsidies that exacerbate the public sector deficit.
The relationships between these aspects should be sufficiently reliable and consistent. This is one of the most important problems of state regulation of market relations in the economy.
In the processes of economic development, fundamental changes must occur both in the duties of the state, and in the duties of both the enterprise and the citizen. In market conditions, enterprises and organizations themselves ensure the efficiency and profitability of production. People themselves are responsible for finding work and realizing their potential. The state is called upon to monitor the relationship between the scale and speed of transformations and the emergence of dangerous trends that threaten the social stability and security of the country.
When a crisis occurs, the way out of it, and then the path of economic growth, is determined not by the power and sovereignty of the state, but by its ability to encourage transformations that meet changing needs and conditions. A crisis always leads to a revision of outdated ideas. It is important to discern in it the sprouts of the new, around which changes in the economic and social space should take place.
This function of the state reflects the democratic foundations of power, which is interested in the socially oriented nature of transformations and is able to implement policies in the interests of society as a whole, and not of any groups, clans and elites. Power should be a kind of effectively operating mechanism for the development of the economy and society, ensuring the activities of administrations in accordance with the will of the voters, protecting society from the monopolization of power. This status of power largely depends on the presence of state and public control over the actions of power.
To implement such control, a number of conditions must be met. First of all, this is the development of the legislative framework and effective mechanisms for the implementation of all and all laws. In a society in which a state-legal system has not been created that guarantees the prevention of destructive conflicts by the force of law, the shadow economy is growing. The people employed in it, as you know, do not inform the statistical authorities about their economic turnover. Therefore, a direct, statistically complete and reliable assessment of the scale of the shadow economy is impossible. This affects the efficiency of economic management.
An important condition for state regulation of economic development is the formation of mechanisms that ensure the resolution of social contradictions, the maintenance of economic security, political stability and orientation towards the legal protection of the individual, the socialization of economic activity.
The strategy of any transformations should provide for a preliminary assessment of the social consequences of decisions made, their adjustment and a system of measures to mitigate and compensate for negative consequences. All this necessitates a new approach to the management of socio-economic processes, which takes into account the uncertainty of the results of economic decisions, as well as risk factors.
The use of the concept of risk in the regulatory activities of the state involves the prediction of possible critical situations, the assessment of probable losses for the population with the identification of their qualitative and quantitative nature, depending on the scale and reality of their compensation.
The state itself is interested in the development and implementation of such a concept. It has huge highly liquid tangible assets at its disposal. As an owner, the state should be extremely interested in the expanded reproduction of its industrial and financial capital. Increasing the profitability of state property directly depends on the management of this property.
The state implements its administrative functions in several areas.
First, these are enterprises of federal subordination.
According to the Civil Code of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Civil Code of the Russian Federation), federal property is transferred to enterprises on the basis of the right of economic management of business, to institutions - on the basis of the right of operational management. This is necessary to control the use of state property, assess the effectiveness of the functioning of enterprises, in relation to institutions - to assess the purpose of their activities.
The state monitors the financial condition and determines the prospects for the development of enterprises and organizations, ways and forms of restructuring production, if necessary, its diversification, and determines strategic directions for development.
Secondly, these are enterprises with a state share in the authorized capital. These enterprises are also objects of state influence. It is carried out by including representatives of the state in the management bodies of these enterprises. At the same time, it should be noted that officials do not always defend the interests of the state in them, although they receive wages from it. Therefore, in the conditions of a gap between the incomes of state representatives and company managers, it is possible for civil servants to become materially dependent on managers and vote at a general meeting of shareholders and on the board of directors in their interests.
Thirdly, the state owns real estate. This is the golden fund of state property, which is always valuable and must constantly function effectively. One of the directions in this area of state activity is the sale of real estate to replenish the state budget.
Fourthly, land relations are closely connected with the activities of the state. The issue of land is not only a matter of ensuring a stable income for the state budget, but also of preserving Russia as a stable independent geopolitical unit. Its solution to a large extent depends on whether the citizens of the country will realize their involvement in a single social whole, not only in the state-political aspect, but, more importantly, as a single territorial, economic, cultural-historical and spiritual-value space. For effective participation in economic life, a society must be the owner of those resources on which the life of all its members is based - land, water and other natural resources, including minerals, airspace and landscape and recreational areas.
Finally, in the field of state regulation are property relations in the regions where the interests of the employee, enterprise and the state are realized. In practice, federal enterprises are often transferred into the ownership of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to pay off the state's debt to their budgets. After all, an enterprise is a property that has a certain value. However, it should be understood that the enterprise is the main structure-forming element of the economy. In the process of its functioning, labor, material and financial resources are combined, it is a source of satisfaction of society's needs for goods and services and a place of application of labor and efforts of the majority of the country's able-bodied population. This circumstance plays a decisive role in the state regulation of socio-economic development.
All acts of state regulation of economic development contain two questions: why does the state do it and how does it do it?
The issue of the first question has already been discussed above. The answer to the second question is usually associated with regulatory and legislative activities, financial regulation, activities in the sphere of production and redistribution of income.
The normative-legislative activity of the state finds expression mainly in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, which is rightly called the "economic construction". This figurative expression very accurately and succinctly characterizes the significance of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation for regulating the country's economy. Its norms in accordance with Part 1 of Art. 76 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation have direct effect on the entire territory of the Russian Federation.
Competition as a necessary element of a market economy implies not only a certain dynamism of economic development, but also the possibility of stagnation. Legal acts regulating restrictions on competition and commonly referred to as antimonopoly law occupy, along with legal acts on combating unfair competition, a significant place in anti-crisis legislation.
The dynamically developing relations of the participants in civil turnover inevitably push for the improvement of domestic legislation. Federal Law No. 127-FZ of October 26, 2002 "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" takes into account the accumulated negative experience of bankruptcy procedures and builds a system of "checks and balances" for creditors' property claims, which includes:
- - a more complicated procedure for initiating bankruptcy cases and establishing the amount of creditors' claims in an arbitration court;
- – a procedure for selecting an arbitration manager, in which creditors do not choose a specific person, but only determine professional requirements, which should facilitate the appointment of an administrator who is initially independent of creditors;
- - clear regulation of actions with the debtor's property;
- - granting the owner-debtor rights that enable them to actively participate in bankruptcy proceedings and, if necessary, protect their legitimate interests.
This Law sets out in sufficient detail the procedure for satisfying by the owner or founder of all the claims of creditors recorded in the register, or providing the debtor with funds in the required amount. It is important that, in accordance with the Law, the role of the owner in bankruptcy proceedings is changing: instead of a passive contemplator, he becomes an active participant in the procedure, playing the role of an effective counterbalance in the event of unfounded claims of creditors to the debtor's property.
At the same time, the Law does not solve all the problems associated with the activities of enterprises, since almost each of them is a complex socio-economic and technical system that integrates a variety of resources and factors. The features of an enterprise or organization are not limited to its presentation either as a property complex, or as a legal entity, or as a commodity producer or social unit of society. Each of these views reflects only one of the aspects of the enterprise, but does not reflect it as a whole.
In this regard, the diverse activities of enterprises are currently regulated by many regulatory legal acts, such as the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, the Labor Code of the Russian Federation, the Federal Law of December 26, 2005 No. 208-FZ "On Joint Stock Companies", the Law of the Russian Federation of February 7, 1992 No. 2300-1 "On Protection of Consumer Rights", the already mentioned Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)", etc.
However, each of them focuses on one of the aspects of activity and does not fully take into account the rest. At the same time, each of the regulations allows for a certain variability in the choice of managerial and organizational decisions, but the formally legal choice of combinations of these options sometimes creates opportunities for such dishonest actions as seizure of property through bankruptcy, deception of partners, violations of the rights of employees and shareholders. Under these conditions, not a single systemic problem of enterprises can be solved by making changes to each of the acts separately.
In times of crisis, state normative regulation in the sphere of social values is of particular importance. The importance of the regulatory activities of the state stems from the objective need to maintain economic efficiency and justice in extreme situations, to provide consumers with the necessary and reliable information in connection with the occurrence of circumstances dangerous to human health and life. Therefore, the state is tightening the regime of control over compliance with regulatory legal acts regulating, for example, the production and sale of alcoholic beverages, food, medicines, and complex electrical household appliances.
The role of the state in regulating such aspects of social life as employment, labor relations, and household development is exceptionally great. It is carried out with the help of a wide arsenal of legislative and administrative-legal measures, price and tariff policies, taxes, social transfers, and environmental regulations.
An analysis of economic development trends over the past years shows that a way out of the crisis and its successful development are impossible without comprehensive humanization, i.e. a decisive turn to the needs and requirements of a person, the development of his abilities and creative potential. The normative-legal activity of the state should contribute as much as possible to the combination of social incentives for the development of social production with its natural purpose - to serve the needs of people.
One of the types of state regulation of economic development is financial regulation, which covers several specialized areas:
- public finance is a specific area in which federal, regional and local authorities and their representatives, as well as public organizations, in the course of their activities, operate with large amounts coming from various sources, distributing them in accordance with accepted budgeting procedures. These bodies have the right to issue certain securities, involving investors in socially significant programs.
At the same time, the goals of public organizations differ from the goals of private commercial organizations. They are usually focused on solving certain socio-political problems, rather than making a profit;
- - institutional finance plays a special role and deals with huge money, which is explained by the presence in the economy of any country of banks, stock exchanges, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds and other types of financial institutions. They stimulate savings, accumulate money into funds sufficient for investment, lend, insure, guarantee, in a word, provide specific financial services;
- - international finance is a field of finance that deals with problems that arise as soon as cash flows cross national borders: currency conversion, features of commercial and tax laws, taxation of foreign citizens, foreign trade balance, differences in price structure, etc.;
- - analysis of financial instruments and investments - an area that develops and improves the methods of financial analysis necessary to assess the risk and profitability when investing money in stocks, bonds and other securities, as well as when conducting certain financial transactions in conditions of incomplete or inaccurate information;
- - financial management - a specific activity related to the study of financial problems, the search for sources of cheap funds and opportunities for the profitable use of money, and the management of financial flows.
In a generalized view, financial regulation is a function of managing the totality of funds at the disposal of a household, enterprise or state, as well as sources of income, items of expenditure, the procedure for their formation and use. In the country, financial resources are accumulated by the budget system, which ensures their redistribution in accordance with the accepted criteria and conditions.
Budget policy must take into account a number of specific factors, and above all the danger of economic and financial crises. It cannot be carried out according to typical scenarios of a market economy, i.e. as a typical case characteristic of a developed market economy. Its tasks and goals reflect the characteristics of the period of development experienced, namely:
- the use of budgetary policy as a means of realizing the common tasks and goals of economic reforms;
- ensuring manageability of economic processes and the economy as a whole in a crisis;
- resolution or mitigation of acute social contradictions arising in crisis situations;
- development of new relations of budgetary federalism.
To a certain extent, budgetary policy also implements the general goals that face any budgetary system. This is the concentration and centralization of financial resources, the impact on economic growth and employment, ensuring the economic and political functions of the state.
The depth and duration of the crisis in the country can be generated, firstly, by miscalculations in the choice of the system and mechanisms of urgent reforms; secondly, the lack of a clear target orientation and, thirdly, ignoring the world experience in economic regulation.
In the course of budget execution, programs that the state is obliged to finance often undergo the most significant cuts. The consequence of this is a decrease in the level of wages and delays in their payment, the decline of health care and education, and other vital sectors.
The government covers the budget deficit through operations with securities and obtaining foreign loans. In the regions, the tension of the financial situation is reduced through the sale of real estate, construction in progress, blocks of shares, and long-term lease rights for land plots. But these resources are finite. Renewable resources are needed, i.e. production income. This can be achieved in our conditions only by stimulating accumulations.
The situation with accumulation in our country is explained, firstly, by the lack of clear guidelines for investing funds and, secondly, by the poor performance of the mechanism for lending to the development of the economy.
The Swedish economist Knut Wicksell, studying the problems of economic growth, came to the conclusion that the accumulation of capital, or investment, is a function of the ratio of the real and natural rates of interest. The first is the actual rate of interest, a simple thing. This is, in fact, the price of money borrowed, or the interest rate for a loan. The natural rate of interest is a more complicated thing. It is understood as the "anticipated profit as a result of the use of the loan", or, in other words, the expected rate of return on newly created capital. This norm is not real, it is just the expectation of the entrepreneur to receive a certain stream of income in the future.
K. Wicksell expressed the idea, later confirmed by numerous operations to regulate ups and downs in the development of the economy by the interest rate of the central bank of any country - capital accumulation occurs at the moment when the natural rate of interest, i.e. the expected performance of real capital is higher than the loan fee. When the ratio changes in favor of the actual rate, the accumulation of real capital stops.
Economic growth is always associated with the accumulation of real capital. In order for capital to accumulate, there must be a balanced ratio of the real and natural rates of interest. This is what needs to be managed, and it is also important because money in our market is quite expensive.
The high price of loans in the Russian market is due to the fact that commercial banks do not have enough assets to conduct vigorous lending activities. This problem can be solved by strengthening the capital base with insurance and pension savings of citizens and net capital - papers for the ownership of land, mineral resources, real estate, shares of companies, etc. But in our country, neither citizens nor the state yet possess capital sufficient to saturate these institutions with it. The ability of banks to accept as collateral papers confirming ownership of housing, land, and mineral resources is also limited.
Therefore, one of the important tasks of the state is to promote that banks provide a wide range of high quality services, everywhere and at affordable prices. In recent years, domestic banks have become more like standard financial intermediaries than ever before and have come close to the goal of forming a normal commercial business. However, they still face the challenge of reaching a sustainable development trajectory.
The optimal state for the banking system is when the profit provides no less capital growth rates than the asset growth rates. In this case, banks are able to pay dividends to shareholders without jeopardizing long-term development prospects. When banks turn into commercially efficient enterprises, the preconditions for a qualitative change in the nature of the relationship between banks and shareholders, including the formation of a market for banking shares, and a decrease in the dependence of banks on shareholders, are emerging.
The mechanism for adjusting cash processes is complex. Many parameters that determine the state of the monetary sphere, such as the demand for money, the speed of their circulation, are beyond the control of state bodies. Therefore, the main emphasis in modern money management programs is on changing their supply, i.e. on accelerating or slowing down the rate of money emission. Control over emission processes is not direct, but indirect.
There are several ways out of a crisis situation. The first is to gradually restore lost savings. The second is to stimulate the attraction of new savings of citizens to banks and non-banking financial institutions. The third one is attraction of direct and portfolio foreign capital and external borrowings. The fourth is the use of the practice of accounting and rediscounting bills, which is widespread in the West.
These control methods have both advantages and disadvantages. The first way does not lead to inflation, but contributes to the growth of public debt. In addition, it practically does not increase financial capital, since the restoration of the population's savings occurs mainly through borrowing money from it. The second method also does not threaten inflation, but stretches out the process of growth of financial capital for a long time. This gives rise to the problem of non-payments, the lack of sources of financing for investments in fixed and working capital. The third way can mitigate the problem, but it makes the financing of the economy dependent on world market conditions. The fourth method is practically not used in our country.
It is possible to get out of the financial crisis only on the basis of overcoming the situation of the growing loss of confidence of the majority of the population in the reforms being carried out in the country. The main thing is to get away from the desocialization of financial policy. Only sustainable economic growth can suppress the sources of tension and reduce the severity of the country's debt crisis.
The basis for economic growth is the opportunity to invest. But foreign capital does not go to Russia due to doubts about the existence of normal conditions for economic activity.
One of the ways to form financial reserves for economic recovery is the development of energy conservation. In our country, the energy intensity of the gross domestic product has recently been growing, while the economic energy efficiency has been falling, although it should be the other way around. We spend one and a half times more fuel per unit of electricity produced than in Western countries. A modern Danish, German or English CHPP has an efficiency of more than 50%, while a Russian one has 36%.
Tax reforms are of great importance for the implementation of anti-crisis measures in the financial sector. The need to reduce the tax burden is dictated not only by considerations of stimulating economic growth, but also by the need to form a key characteristic of a market economy - equality of external conditions for all participants in economic relations. Historically, large business, which was formed in the early 1990s. and heavily supported by state assets, from the very beginning made extensive use of its administrative and financial resources to minimize tax deductions. With the help of numerous offshore schemes, large businesses have the opportunity, on completely legal grounds, to withdraw significant amounts from taxation.
The development of the public debt market will make it possible in the future to finance cyclical budget deficits without significant losses in the form of a sharp increase in the cost of servicing. In addition, the development of the debt market can serve as the basis for the development of the financial market as a whole, i. contribute to the creation of an effective channel for the transformation of savings into investments. Finally, a mature debt market allows the real sector to determine the level of return in the economy with minimal risk and objectively evaluate the cost of investment projects, while the financial sector gets the opportunity to form optimal portfolios.
The success of anti-crisis management largely depends on the state of the material basis for improving the living standards of the country's population. The main factor in this increase is labor productivity, which largely depends on scientific and technological progress. And the latter, in turn, is influenced by history, culture, education, institutional factors and politics. Productivity is linked to investment in human capital and environmental quality.
All these problems should be solved by entrepreneurs. But we need an environment that motivates business to vigorously modernize. However, in many of its features, the Russian economy today does not have the properties of a single national economic complex; it exhibits features of fragmentation.
This fragmentation of the economy is the main obstacle to economic growth. It clearly shows that in market conditions the true measure of economic growth is not so much the rate of growth of gross domestic product as the degree of consolidation of the economy. Sustainable economic growth, as opposed to economic recession, is the privilege of holistic and balanced systems.
The development of the economy is not sufficiently stable when unfavorable changes in external conditions in one or another of its sectors cannot be compensated for by the resources of other sectors. Domestic supply and demand, which form the backbone of the economy, are not oriented towards each other, are not coordinated and develop along different trajectories. The fragmentation of the economy localizes competition and provokes inflation, as producers begin to focus on the maximum demand price. In such an economy, there is a low efficiency in the use of all types of resources, since fragmentation prevents their movement to the point of highest demand.
Only the state can provide a solution to this problem. No other institution is able to achieve the necessary optimization of the structure of the national economy, the introduction of the achievements of scientific and technological progress into production, and the overcoming of the raw material orientation of exports. "In today's social conditions, the responsibility for the economy - and therefore for the economic fate of all people operating in it - lies with the state. The entrepreneur is responsible for his enterprise, and this is not a little" - these are the words of the reformer of the post-war German economy, Ludwig Erhard, uttered many years ago are still relevant to us today.
State regulation in this area is reduced to an active industrial policy, which is a set of tools and mechanisms for influencing economic development, i.e. the system of public procurement, direct public lending, tax regimes, etc.
The government needs to determine a state economic policy that is understandable to all: how to develop energy, industry, agriculture as a food base, use natural resources, and transform housing and communal services. It is necessary to clearly formulate the guidelines for social development, to show our role in the development of science, education, culture, mobilization of Russia's competitive advantages, and above all the huge domestic market and significant technological and cultural potential.
The use of capital deserves special attention. Capital is not only money and the combined power of businessmen and corporations, it is also specific people who implement financial policy and make decisions that directly affect each of us. Capital has such characteristics as development, life, history.
An analysis of the history of capital shows that it goes through certain stages in its development. Therefore, our capital must, like once, for example, American or British capital, master not only the extraction, but also the primary processing of raw materials, form an industrial infrastructure with a sufficient supply of fuel, structural materials, transport routes, technologies and industries for a subsequent rapid breakthrough in high, intelligent and advanced technologies.
Such development requires a significant concentration of production and the availability of large working capital. Profit-making, market risk mitigation, efficient technology, a visible market structure, and technology change sequencing depend on these factors. It is in this vein that big business operates, shaping industrial policy at its own discretion and for its own benefit.
In this area, the state should not only be a business partner, but also have its own long-term strategy that would form incentives for the economic activity of each individual economic entity and which would be based on the following principles:
- ensuring that the interests of all participants in its implementation are taken into account;
- socio-economic orientation;
- a combination of state regulation measures and market mechanisms;
- creation of favorable conditions for reducing the negative consequences in the course of structural transformations, and then for improving the living standards of the population;
- the targeted nature of the events and the high responsibility of the participants for the final results of their implementation;
- a system of contractual relations and a competitive basis for participants in the process of transformation in industry;
- reasonable centralization of resources in order to ensure the development of production and prevent negative trends in the use of scientific, industrial and intellectual potential;
- widespread use of rent, leasing and investment competitions for the sale of state property;
- development and promotion of the general motivation of demand in the markets of labor, capital, goods and services, technology, etc.
N. D. Kondratiev, the author of the well-known wave theory of economic development, argued that the transition from the downward stage of the economic cycle to the upward one is associated with a deep modernization of the economy based on the emergence of fundamentally new technologies. The transition from steam to electricity, from manufactory to industry, underlay the industrial upsurge of European countries, especially England and France, in the 18th century. The well-being of America is largely due to the fact that during the Great Depression, new infrastructure solutions were laid, "embroidering" the consumption crisis.
Modern Russia is in a similar situation. Now it is important to determine what infrastructure and technological solutions will form the basis of a long-term social upsurge and dynamic economic growth. Overcoming the technological challenge of our time depends on these decisions. In practical terms, this primarily means the need to move away from unilateral inclusion in the global economy through energy exports and short-term speculative investments and more balanced participation in world economic processes by integrating domestic scientific and technological potential, exporting science-intensive products and services, connecting to strategic technological alliances .
Insufficient visibility in the current Russian conditions of the internal technology market leads to the fact that at the time of choosing a modernization strategy, many entrepreneurs simply do not have objective information about the possible range of technological innovations. The communication system does not always allow market participants to form a common vision, within which only successful individual innovative strategies are possible. It is no coincidence that the budgets of high-tech companies in Silicon Valley include decent money for the exchange of experience between employees of various private and public organizations. This is how the "mainstream" is formed, the deviation from which often promises the collapse of the company.
The development of industrial production, including its structural reorganization and re-profiling, becomes impossible without attracting serious financial resources on a long-term basis. Considering their limitations, it is possible to separate the main types of commodity production (primarily science-intensive products) for two or three years and reform the enterprises involved in this process along the entire technological chain of production of the final product. This task becomes interregional and requires coordination and mutual assistance of the territories within the framework of the general state policy of economic development.
A prerequisite for the implementation of industrial policy is the coordinated actions of all authorities, banks and enterprises. This requires the political will of the authorities in terms of selecting enterprises and directions for their development, as well as the desire and ability of bankers to provide long-term loans. The second condition for its implementation is the participation of a non-governmental body that unites industrialists and entrepreneurs, ready by its actions to promote and convince commodity producers and government structures of the need for structural and other reforms at specific industrial enterprises.
Generalization and understanding of specific models of behavior of enterprises in crisis conditions allows us to note the following trends:
- falling into a crisis phase inevitably forces managers to apply anti-crisis management measures;
- the anti-crisis behavior of enterprises is often the opposite of those actions that are effective in conditions of economic growth or economic stabilization;
- in industry, various anti-crisis models of enterprise activity are spontaneously formed;
- the enterprise should rely primarily on its internal reserves and capabilities.
An analysis of the existing practice of the work of executive authorities and public formations, scientists and specialists in anti-crisis management allows us to identify the main stages in the design of regional anti-crisis programs:
- 1) development and justification of the concept of socio-economic and scientific and technical development of the region for a certain period;
- 2) formulation and ranking of problems identified during the development of a program for the implementation of the adopted concept;
- 3) determination of anti-crisis goals and tasks that need to be addressed;
- 4) development of anti-crisis measures in priority areas of development of the region;
- 5) conducting a feasibility study of anti-crisis measures and investment projects;
- 6) economic justification and balance linking action plans and projects with the needs and resources of the region, possible state assistance in attracting loans and providing other support.
At the same time, it should be taken into account that each region has its own specifics in approaches to the formation of management concepts, the development of anti-crisis programs and the mechanisms for their implementation.
A socio-economic crisis is usually accompanied by a massive and inefficient allocation of labor and capital, a decline in production in the public sector of the economy. But the main part of revenues comes from this sector to the state budget, in the same sector government spending is slowly decreasing. As a result, the state reduces spending on social purposes when the need for social protection, on the contrary, increases sharply.
In such circumstances, the strategy of the state's social policy should provide for the regulation of market forces.
It allows you to solve problems associated with the failure of the market and the organization of the process of redistribution of income. In this activity, the main thing is the prevention of absolute poverty. The fight against poverty is the basis for maintaining the standard of living of the population and includes social insurance and income equalization. The aim of the fight against poverty is to ensure that no citizen or family falls below a certain minimum level of income or consumption. The purpose of social insurance is to protect each person from a sudden and unacceptably strong decline in the standard of living. The purpose of income equalization is to ensure that each person is able to actually redistribute their own income.
If there is a prolonged fiscal crisis, the task of fighting poverty takes precedence over other functions provided by cash transfers, such as insurance and income equalization. An improvement in the state budget will serve as a reason to activate other functions of cash benefits. If the state eliminates family allowances, it will exacerbate the impact of the crisis on families. These benefits stabilize consumption during difficult times for their recipients.
If there is no effective income equalization policy, irreversible consequences may arise at the personal level, negative trends in the formation of human capital may appear.
The need for public funding of health care is dictated by the need, on the one hand, for the production of public goods and, on the other hand, for ensuring wide access of the population to health services: public health activities, such as vaccination and health education programs, require budgetary funds; the elderly and other economically inactive segments of the poor also need subsidies, the consumption of medicines, in particular those produced in limited quantities, is also subsidized; financing of measures to protect the health of the population is carried out mainly by the state.
But often the activity of the state in the economy does not correspond to the goals of the development of the social sphere.
- Civil Code of the Russian Federation: part one dated November 30, 1994 No. 51-FZ; part two dated January 26, 1996 No. 14-FZ; part three of November 26, 2001 No. 146-FZ; part four of December 18, 2006 No. 230-Φ3. When independently studying the normative legal acts mentioned in the textbook, it is necessary to take into account the changes and additions that have been made to them since they came into force. The official texts of the documents can be found on the Official Internet Portal of Legal Information (pravo.gov.ru). In addition, you can refer to such reference systems as "ConsultantPlus", "Garant", etc.
- The Constitution of the Russian Federation, adopted by popular vote on December 12, 1993 (subject to amendments made by the Laws of the Russian Federation on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation of December 30, 2008 No. 6-FKZ and 7-FKZ).
