World population Population size Population reproduction First type of reproduction Second type of reproduction Composition of the population Gender composition Age composition, labor resources Ethnic composition Religious composition Level of education Population distribution and migration Population distribution and density Population migration Urban and rural population Urbanization Levels and rates Urban population Rural population Population and environment
Dynamics of the world population since the beginning of our era
World population Population population Demographic policy Population reproduction First type of reproduction Second type of reproduction Population composition Gender composition Age composition, labor resources Ethnic composition Religious composition Education level Population distribution and migration Population distribution and density Population migration Urban and rural population Urbanization Levels and rates Urban population Rural population population Population and environment Demographic policy Demographic policy Demographic policy
The demographic policy in the countries of the first type of reproduction is aimed at increasing the birth rate. Examples of countries pursuing an active demographic policy are France or Japan, which have developed such stimulating economic measures as: a) one-time loans to newlyweds; b) benefits for the birth of each child; c) monthly allowances for children, d) paid holidays, etc.
Example 1: In India: a) a national family planning program has been adopted; b) the age of marriage has been raised: men - 21 years old, women - 18 years old; c) mass voluntary sterilization of the population is carried out; d) the political motto: "We are two - we are two." Example 2: In China: a) a birth planning committee has been set up; b) a late age for marriage has been established: men - 22 years old, women - 20 years old; c) for one child in the family, the state pays extra monthly; d) political motto: "One family - one child" Demographic policy in countries of the second type of reproduction is aimed at reducing the birth rate.
Reproduction of the population is a constant renewal of the size and structure of the population in the process of changing generations of people, through births and deaths.
The set of parameters that determine this process is called the mode of population reproduction.
In an extremely generalized form, the above set of parameters includes the size and structure of the population as a characteristic of its state, as well as births and deaths as events that determine their (numbers and structure) changes over time. In other words, the parameters that determine the reproduction of the population are the birth rate and death rate, presented in the form of their meters.
In terms of its content, the population reproduction regime is determined by the socio-economic conditions of its life, the social structure, and the peculiarities of the demographic development of individual regions. Due to the uneven economic and social development not only of individual countries, but also of their regions, there are significant differences in the formation of types of reproduction not only between countries, but also within them.
For example, in the USSR there were three types of population reproduction. The first was characterized by a low mortality of the population, a deliberately limited birth rate, an orientation towards a small family, and a high intensity of migration processes. This type of reproduction, with a completed transition to a one-child family as a modal one, was typical for 79.7% of the total population of the country, in particular for the RSFSR, the Ukrainian SSR, the Byelorussian SSR, the Georgian SSR and the Baltic republics.
The second type was distinguished by a low mortality rate, a high consciously unlimited birth rate, traditions of having many children, and low intensity of migration processes from the village to the city and beyond the borders of the republic. This type of reproduction covered the population of the republics of Central Asia.
The third type of reproduction was transitional and inherent in the population of Moldova, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and covered approximately 10.6% of the country's population. Reproduction was characterized by low mortality, combined with rapid, but not the same in the Union republics, the rate of decline in the birth rate, and the increasing migration mobility of the population. Another feature is the transition from large families to medium-sized and one-child families.
After the separation of the Russian Federation into an independent state, the development and deepening of the first type of reproduction continued in it. Over the past decade, it has been accompanied by:
§ the continuing decline in the birth rate, the final transition to a one-child family;
§ an increase in the mortality of the population, and above all, in working age;
§ reduction in the average life expectancy of the population at birth;
§ an almost universal natural decline in the population that began in 1991, an increase in this phenomenon by the middle of the period;
§ the growth of external migration - the exchange of population with the countries of the far, and especially the near abroad, the CIS and the Baltic countries;
§ increased internal migration in all directions;
§ the formation of narrowed reproduction of the population in some regions, simple - in other regions, in rare cases - expanded reproduction.
Narrowed reproduction means that the living population does not reproduce a replacement for itself, the absolute number of outgoing generations exceeds the number of new generations. Such a population is threatened with depopulation, its age structure has a regressive type. With simple reproduction, the outgoing generations and those entering into life are equal in their absolute numbers. In such a population, a permanent sex and age structure (stationary type) is formed. The total population is not increasing; under certain unfavorable conditions, there is a high probability of a transition to narrowed reproduction and a regressive age structure.
Expanded reproduction is characterized by an increase in each new generation entering into life compared to the number of outgoing generations. A progressive type of sex and age structure of the population is formed, its absolute number is growing.
Constricted, simple and extended reproduction can be viewed from the standpoint of:
1) what kind of change did the outgoing cohort of men and women of a certain year of birth leave behind for the entire fertile (fertile for women) period of their lives (change of generations by cohorts); what kind of succession each outgoing group of contemporaries left behind at the critical moment of the population census taking into account the level of mortality of generations entering into life.
Usually, the reproduction of the population is considered not as a whole, but in relation to any one sex, most often female. A "same-sex" consideration of population reproduction is possible, since there is practically no exchange between the sexes at any statistically significant level, and the secondary sex ratio can be considered constant. The choice of the female population, in general, is arbitrary, but the motives for such a choice are quite understandable. First, the reproductive period in women is shorter than in men. Secondly, (and this is perhaps the main thing) the main parameters of female reproduction (the number of children born to a woman, her age at birth, etc.) are much more accessible than similar characteristics for men, especially with regard to out-of-wedlock births. . Cases of analysis, so to speak, of "male fertility", due to the lack of the necessary statistical base, are extremely rare. One of the successful exceptions is the book by V.N. Arkhangelsky "Reproduction of the population of Russia", which provides data on the total fertility rate of men and the average age of the father at the birth of a child.
The role of age as a universal independent variable in demographic analysis and its constant change (every person inevitably either dies or gets older, i.e., more strictly speaking, moves to another age group) determine that much attention is paid to age in the analysis of population reproduction , the study of this process in the context of age groups.
It follows from the definition of population reproduction that, speaking of it, we tacitly mean that its indicators do not refer to a year or some other period of time, but to a real or hypothetical cohort (generation), i.e. are, in fact, not periodic, but cohort.
However, some periodic indicators can be used as simple and approximate measures of reproduction.
Among them is the coefficient of natural increase, i.e. the difference between the total birth and death rates. Another such measure is the vitality index proposed by the American biologist and demographer R. Pearl. The vitality index is equal to the ratio of the annual number of births (or total fertility rate) to the annual number of deaths (or total mortality rate). Both of these indicators indicate the extent to which the population changes (increases or decreases) under the influence of actual birth and death rates. However, both the coefficient of natural increase and the vitality index, as well as its components (fertility and mortality), strongly depend on the age structure, fluctuations of which can distort data on population dynamics. Therefore, all these measures are inadequate for determining long-term trends in population reproduction. That is why, in particular, it is necessary to use population reproduction indicators based on the cohort approach and independent of the age structure.
If certain sex- and age-differentiated birth and death rates are given, as well as a secondary sex ratio, which is a universal biological constant and equals approximately 105-106 live births of boys per 100 live births of girls, then this completely determines the reproduction of the population and its age and sex structure. The totality of precisely these parameters is what is meant when speaking about the mode of population reproduction in the usual sense of the word.
Since the reproduction of the female population is usually studied, the whole question comes down to considering the age-specific mortality of women and the frequency of the birth of girls in women of different ages.
Mortality, as a rule, is measured using the function of survival to the age of x years, i.e. using the function. In practice, they use the values of the numbers of those living to the age of x years from the complete tables of mortality of the female population. The generalizing characteristic of female mortality, as you remember, is the average life expectancy of a newborn, i.e.
population reproduction- constant renewal of the population as a result of the processes of fertility and mortality, and for some regions - migration. In a narrower sense, it is the renewal of generations of people as a result of births and deaths. The population is characterized by its size and structure. Changes in the population are determined by the appearance of some people, the departure of others, the transition from one structural part of the population to another, which lead to the fact that the population continues to exist, maintaining or changing its size and structure.
Population reproduction mode- a set of parameters that determine the course of the process of population reproduction.
The population of a limited territory is a part of the population of a larger territory, with other parts of which an exchange of population can take place. Excluding this exchange, one speaks of closed population the total number of which can only change through births and deaths. In this case, those born immediately find themselves in some of the divisions. For an extremely aggregated population, there is its total number as a characteristic of its state, birth and death. The parameters that determine its reproduction are the general birth and death rates.
In a more detailed study of the population represented by a number of structural divisions, the course of its reproduction is determined by the parameters of each division. Thus, birth and death rates are differentiated by department. In addition, parameters are found that determine the exchange of population between these units. On the one hand, there are divisions, the exchange between which is impossible. These are groups by gender, place and date of birth, eye color, genetic characteristics, etc.
On the other hand, there are divisions in which the transition from one to another is mandatory and inevitable. These are age groups.
Most allocate two types of reproduction. I type- simple reproduction, if during the change of generations the population does not increase, or narrowed, when more people die than are born. II type- expanded reproduction, when the number of the next generation is greater than the previous one. The first type of population reproduction characterized by low birth rates, death rates, and natural increase. It is typical for the countries of Europe (including Russia), North America, Australia and Oceania. In a number of countries, simple reproduction is maintained, for which it is necessary that half of all families have 2 children, and half - 3 (2 children, as it were, replace parents, and the third "covers the loss" from accidents, diseases, "compensates" for the lack of offspring in the childless). The second type of population reproduction characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low mortality rates. This type is most characteristic of the developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The problem for these countries is the need to reduce the birth rate, overcome the population explosion through the implementation of family planning programs.
67. The concept of the regime of natural reproduction of the population, its indicators.
Reproduction of the population is the constant renewal of the size and structure of the population in the process of changing generations of people through births and deaths. The set of parameters that determine this process is called the mode of population reproduction. The parameters that determine the reproduction of the population are the birth rate and the death rate.
Usually, the reproduction of the population is considered in relation most often to the female sex. The choice of the female population: firstly, the reproductive period for women is shorter than for men. Secondly, the main parameters of female reproduction (the number of children born to a woman, her age at birth, etc.) are much more accessible than similar characteristics for men, especially with regard to out-of-wedlock births. Indicators: gross reproduction rate of the population - the number of girls that each woman will give birth to on average during the entire reproductive period. When calculating the gross coefficient, it is assumed that there is no mortality of women until the end of reproductive age (equal to the total fertility rate multiplied by this proportion of girls among newborns). An indicator that also takes into account mortality is the net reproduction rate of the population. Otherwise, it is called the net reproduction rate of the population. It is equal to the average number of girls born in a woman's lifetime and surviving to the end of the reproductive period, given birth and death rates.
Theme ""The number and reproduction of the world's population"".Complex didactic goal:
To reveal the reasons for the reproduction of the world's population, population dynamics,
Features of population reproduction (2 types) and demographic policy in economically developed and developing states.
Integrating goal:
Upon completion, students should:
Explain the causes of reproduction and population dynamics,
Determine the type of population reproduction by age and sex pyramids,
To name according to statistical data, maps the population of the countries of the world, countries
I and II types of reproduction.
Tasks:
to give schoolchildren knowledge about the world population, natural movement, the demographic "explosion", "crisis" and demographic policy.
Introduce new concepts - ""quality of life"", ""fertility"".
Show the features of population reproduction and demographic policy in countries of different types of economic development.
Improve the ability to work on statistical data and cartographic materials
To form general educational skills to highlight the main thing, solve problems, compare, generalize, listen.
To develop the thinking of students by involving them in the analysis of tables, summarizing the material and formulating conclusions.
Strengthen group work skills.
Country- USA, Zar.Europe, Russia Lat.America, Asia,
Africa
Level of economic development–Developed Developing
And what will the trend in the development of numbers according to types I and II of reproduction lead to?
""aging of the nation"" ""rejuvenation of the nation""
In many countries, a demographic policy is being pursued by the state, in countries with type I reproduction it is aimed at increasing the birth rate, and in countries with type II it is aimed at lowering the birth rate.
Within 10 minutes you will have to find out the reasons that affect reproduction and under what conditions 1, 2, 3 scenarios will be implemented, working in groups. Group 1 works on scenario 1, group 2 on scenario 2, group 3 on scenario 3.
The purpose of the lesson : To form an idea about the types of population reproduction, about the demographic policy of states with different types of population reproduction.
Educational tasks : to identify patterns in the dynamics of the world population, to consolidate the concept of "natural population movement" and an idea of the features of its dynamics, the concept of "demographic policy", to improve skills in working with statistical materials.
Improving the ability to work with additional materials on the topic of the lesson, the ability to analyze problems, establish cause-and-effect relationships:
Development of detailed oral response skills, the ability to clearly express one's thoughts;
didactic - the formation of knowledge about the features of population change in the modern period and the processes that affect the natural movement of the population;
psychological - development of methods of independent oral activity;
educational - the formation of a natural-scientific worldview, a culture of family relations among students.
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Number and reproduction of the world population
(geography lesson in grade 10)
The purpose of the lesson : To form an idea about the types of population reproduction, about the demographic policy of states with different types of population reproduction.
Educational tasks: to identify patterns in the dynamics of the world population, to consolidate the concept of "natural population movement" and an idea of the features of its dynamics, the concept of "demographic policy", to improve skills in working with statistical materials.
Improving the ability to work with additional materials on the topic of the lesson, the ability to analyze problems, establish cause-and-effect relationships:
Development of detailed oral response skills, the ability to clearly express one's thoughts;
didactic - the formation of knowledge about the features of population change in the modern period and the processes that affect the natural movement of the population;
psychological - development of methods of independent oral activity;
educational - the formation of a natural-scientific worldview, a culture of family relations among students.
Means of education: political map of the world, atlases, multimedia installation
During the classes
Lesson theme motivation
We are studying the course "Social and economic geography of the world." What does the word “social” mean in this title?
Why is it impossible to do without getting to know the population when studying the economy?
Why is the population studied even before the economy?
Place the boards on the board in the correct order."nature", "economy", "population".Explain the sequence you suggested.
From all of the above, we can conclude that getting to know the population in the lessons of economic geography is simply necessary! Just do not forget that geography does not study the population, but only the patterns of its distribution. Therefore, in the lessons on this topic, we will use the knowledge of other sciences. Remember these sciences.
Remember what demography studies?
What does ethnography study?
So, where to start? How does acquaintance with the population of a country, region, world usually begin? Of course, with the number and processes that affect it. This is the topic of our lesson, let's study it Information.
The question of how many people live in the world and now someone may seem idle, insignificant. Is it any wonder that the first attempts to answer it refer only to XVII I century and belong to the English economist William Petit . He suggested that320 million people live on Earth. Human. According to modern scientists, he made a big mistake, since at that time the population was twice as large. And no wonder, because his assumption was based on conjecture. What is being done now to clarify the population? (Population census.)
Slide 3. The first censuses took place only inthe end of the 18th century in Scandinavia, Austria-Hungary, the USA, in the 19th century - in England, Russia, Latin America; in Asia - after World War II; in Africa - in the late 50s of the XX century. In many developing countries, these censuses were the first and last, so absolutely accurate data on their population is not available.
For example: in Nigeria in 1973, 79 million people lived. According to forecasts, by 1985 the population was to increase to 95 million people. In reality, in 1991, only 86 million people lived in the country. It is known about the population of Bangladesh that its number is from 120 to 140 million people. The error of 20 million is very large, which does not allow us to accurately determine the place of this country in the top ten giant countries in terms of population.
From all this it follows that the population of the Earth is known only approximately, and according to calculationsUN in 2004, it amounted to 6.4 billion. Human. We take this number for granted. And to understand it, it is necessary to compare with something. But with what? In the solar system, only our planet is inhabited, which means that the population of the Earth can only be compared with the population of the Earth, who only lived here in another historical time. Scientists believe that in the entire history of human habitation on Earth, 89 billion people , so in England they say about a dead person:"He joined the majority."But never before has so many people lived on Earth at the same time! And never before has it increased so rapidly!
"An ominous meaning is fraught with the curve of the population of the globe tending to the vertical." What is the "ominous" population growth? (We listen to the answers, summarize). No doubt you are right. People need to breathe. Is there enough clean air for everyone?
Gotta drink. Is there enough fresh water for everyone?
Gotta eat. Is there enough arable land to grow food?
You have to live in houses, dress, travel by transport. Are there enough resources?
And finally, is there enough living space for everyone?
To these questions, as well as to the global question: “How many people will the Earth withstand?” - the answers began to appear already in the 60s, when the population explosion began. True, different schools and scientific currents put forward a variety of hypotheses. Some believe that the Earth will withstand more than 10 billion people, others - 12 billion. Still others, which is generally an unlimited number. Fourth, that population growth will stabilize at around 7 billion people. There is also such a point of view: a person is a biological product of nature; if she created him, then she will do everything possible to feed him, or she will “take measures” to adjust his numbers in the direction she needs. Maybe this is already happening today: devastating catastrophes, natural disasters that claim hundreds of thousands of lives (during the tsunami in the Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004, more than 160 thousand people died), never-before-seen diseases for which humanity cannot find a cure, etc. d.?
And one more answer to the question: “Will it be enough…?” - not enough today! Therefore, in recent years, the term “golden billion” has appeared - this is the population of the planet, which today has enough of everything (raw materials, energy, money). Where does this billion live? This is the total population of the USA (280 million), Western Europe (600 million) and Japan (126 million). Energy they consume 50% of world production and create 75% of the total mass of waste. The rest of the world's population is already out of this well-being today. They already lack something today (jobs, food, housing, resources, etc.).
Today, 650 million people in the world are starving, and 35 thousand people die of hunger every day, 12 million people annually. At the same time, the population of the Earth is increasing annually by 96 million people. Schiller's famous saying"Love and hunger rule the world"has now become a biological law. Famine holds back population growth. What does love lead to?
The birth rate leads to the continuous reproduction of the population.
Working with atlases
So, list and show on the map: countries - leaders in population, leaders - in reproduction
Information.
In the economy of any state, a person acts as the main producer of goods and their main consumer. Therefore, the population is one of the main factors in the development of the country. The population of a country depends on the nature of its reproduction.
Reproduction (natural movement) of the population is a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensure the continuous renewal and change of human generations.
Epr \u003d P - C
Epr - natural population growth (calculated per 1000 people);
P - birth rate;
C - mortality.
If P>C, Epr is positive;
If R
If P=C, Epr is zero.
On the Population Reproduction map, countries with minimum and maximum population replacement rates are highlighted in color.
What region of the world has the lowest rates of natural population growth?
Which region of the world has the highest rates of natural population growth?
Natural population growth
Very tall (over 30/1000) | High (20/1000) | Average (10/1000) | Short (2-10/1000) | Very low (less than 2/1000) |
Kenya Zimbabwe Nigeria Libya Tajikistan Egypt | Mongolia Philippines Bangladesh Pakistan Ethiopia Mexico | China India Turkey Cuba Brazil Argentina | Poland Sweden France Great Britain USA Canada | Russia Hungary Germany Bulgaria Austria Italy |
Answer the questions according to the table:
Countries with what level of economic development have very high natural population growth?
What is the rate of natural population growth in countries with a high level of economic development?
As can be seen from the formula, the natural increase in population depends on the processes: What are they called? (birth and death rates).
Let us consider in more detail the first process - fertility.
Every year about 140 million people are born in the world (almost the population of Russia). every second 3 people are born, every minute - 175 people, every hour - 10400, every day - 250 thousand new earthlings.
SLIDE Scientists identify three historical types of population reproduction The transition from one type of reproduction to another is called the demographic revolution or demographic transition.
Factors affecting the low birth rate: LIST THEM
High level of urbanization (> 75%);
High quality of life;
High level of education and a long period of study;
Increase in child support costs;
Changing the status of a woman;
Increasing the proportion of older people;
Consequences of wars and conflicts;
Increasing the age of marriage.
Factors affecting the high birth rate: LIST THEM
Low standard of living;
The predominance of a rural lifestyle;
Religious customs that encourage large families;
Traditions of having many children;
Servitude of women, early marriages;
The growth of the level of medicine.
IDENTIFY THE STATES WITH THE LOWEST AND HIGHEST FERTILITY RATES
Mortality: factors affecting the mortality rate:
Nutrition;
Working and living conditions of the population;
The level of development and accessibility of health care;
Political upheavals.
IDENTIFY THE STATES WITH THE LOWEST AND HIGHEST MORTALITY RATES
b) Information.
Where, according to the scheme of reproduction, of the population is the present humanity? The American scientist Frank Notestein tried to answer this question, who developed the theory of demographic transition back in 1945. Based on it, most of the world's population is at the stage of the second demographic transition, i.e. transition from traditional to modern reproduction. The transition takes place in three phases
Depending on various indicators of fertility and mortality, and hence the rate of natural population growth, countries are conditionally divided into two large groups, i.e. countries with type I and type II reproduction
Characteristics of types of reproduction)
Birth rate:
Mortality rate:
Natural growth rate:
Typical type of countries (developed/developing):
The share of children in the population of the country:
Proportion of the elderly in the population of the country:
Based on these indicators, a characteristic of I and II types of population reproduction is given.
To regulate the population, the state pursues a demographic policy.
Definition of Population Policy).
Demographic policy is a system of various measures taken by the state in order to influence the natural movement of the population, to solve the problems of the population specific to a given country.
GOING ACQUAINTANCE WITH DEM. POLICY OF DIFFERENT STATES.
Testing is carried out to consolidate the material covered.
ADDITIONALLY
When studying the population of the world, we must not forget that we live in Russia. What demographic processes are typical for our country? (We listen to students' answers, summarize, add).
Russia's leadership in population:
I place in the world in the number of abortions;
II - by the number of divorces;
II - by the number of murders (per 1000 people);
II - by the number of prisoners (per 1000 people);
100th place - in terms of life expectancy.
We have the lowest natural increase, the largest population decline, the highest infant mortality among developed countries. A new demographic concept “Russian cross” has appeared
Fig.5. "Russian Cross"
Do we have a future? Certainly. You are our future! future parents. And how many children would you like to have in your future families?
Tell the attendants the number of “little men”, how many children you want to have. We will place them on the “Future 10-B class” stand and count them.
And when you make that decision as an adult, I hope you remember today's lesson and make the right choice. So, it’s not in vain that we study this topic!
