IShares MSCI Germany ETF 0x 3M Co. Adidas AG Adobe Systems Inc. Aion ALCOA Inc. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Amazon.com Inc. American Express Co. Amsterdam Exchange Index (AEX Index) Aphria Inc. Apple Inc. Ardor Ark AT&T Inc. AUD/CAD AUD/CHF AUD/JPY AUD/NZD AUD/USD Augur Aurora Cannabis Baidu Inc. Banco Santander Chile Bank of America Corp. BASF SE Basic Attention Token Bayer AG Bayerische Motoren Werke AG BCH/BTC Binance Coin Bitcoin Bitcoin Cash Bitcoin Gold BitConnect BitShares Boeing Co. Brent Crude Oil BTC/Japan Yen (Bitcoin to Japanese Yen) BTC/Russian ruble BTG/BTC (Bitcoin Gold - BTC) BTG/ETH (Bitcoin Gold - Ethereum) Byteball Bytes Bytecoin Bytom CAD/CHF CAD/JPY Canopy Growth Corp. Cardano Caterpillar Inc. Celgene Chevron Corp. CHF/JPY CHF/SGD Chile Index (IGPA) China 50 (HSI) China A50 China Mobile Ltd. China Unicom Ltd. Cisco Systems Inc. Citigroup Inc. Copper Cotation Assistée en Continu Index (CAC 40) Cronos Group Crude Oil Daimler AG DASH Decred Dentacoin Deutsche Bank AG DigiByte Dogecoin Dow Jones Industrial Average (30) (DJIA 30) Dragonchain Dropbox Inc. DSH/BTC (Dash - Bitcoin) DSH/ETH (Dash - Ethereum) E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. eBay Inc. Electricite de France (EDF) Electroneum Enel S.p.A. Eni S.p.A. EOS EOS/ETH (EOS - Ethereum) EPAM Systems Inc. Estee Lauder ETC/ETH (Ethereum Classic - Ethereum) ETH/BTC Ethan Allen Interiors Ethereum Ethereum Classic EU Stocks 50 (FESX) EUR/AUD EUR/CAD EUR/CHF EUR/CNH EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/MXN EUR/NOK EUR/NZD EUR/RUB EUR/SEK EUR/SGD EUR/TRY EUR/USD Exxon Mobil Corp. Facebook Inc. Factom Ferrari Ford Motor Co. FTSE 100 Index FunFair Gas GBP/AUD GBP/CAD GBP/CHF GBP/JPY GBP/NZD GBP/SEK GBP/USD General Electrics Co. Germany 30 (FDAX) Gold Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Golem Google Inc. Harley-Davidson Inc. Heating Oil Henry Hub Natural Gas Hewlett-Packard Co. Home Depot Inc. HSBC Holdings PLC Hshare IBM Corp. ICON Inditex S.A. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Intel Corp. IOT/ETH (IOTA - Ethereum) IOTA iShares China Large-Cap ETF iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF iShares Latin America 40 ETF iShares MSCI Brazil ETF iShares MSCI Mexico ETF iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF Italy 40 Japan 225 (Nikkei 225) Johnson&Johnson JPMorgan Chase and Co. Juventus Football Club S.p.A. Komodo KuCoin Shares Kyber Network Lenovo Group LinkedIn Corp. Lisk Litecoin Loopring LTC/BTC LTC/ETH (Litecoin - Ethereum) Luxottica Group Spa LYFT Inc. MasterCard Inc. McDonald's Corp. Merck & Co. Inc. Michael Kors Holdings Ltd Microsoft Corp. Mobile TeleSystems OJSC MonaCoin Monero Nacional de Electricidad NASDAQ 100 (ND 100) NEM NEO NEO/BTC (Neo - Ethereum) NEO/ETH (Neo - Ethereum) Netflix, Inc. Nike Inc. Nintendo (JP) Co. Ltd. Nintendo (US) Co. Ltd. NOK/JPY Nordstrom Inc. Novatek, PJSC nVidia Corp. NZD/CAD NZD/CHF NZD/JPY NZD/USD OMG/ETH (OmiseGO - Ethereum) OmiseGo Oracle Corp. Palladium PepsiCo Inc. Petrobras S.A. petrochina co. Ltd. Pfizer Inc. Philip Morris International Inc. Pinterest PIVX Platinum Populous Procter & Gamble Co. PVH Corporation QASH QTM/ETH (QTUM - Ethereum) QTUM Ralph Lauren Corporation RChain Repsol S.A. Ripple Russell 2000 (RTY) Russia 50 Index Salesforce.com Inc. SALT SAP SE SGD/JPY Siacoin Siemens AG Silver Slack SmartCash Snap Inc. Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile Spain 35 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Spotify Technology Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Starbucks Corp. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. Status Steem Stellar Stratis SurveyMonkey Tel Aviv 35 Index (TA-35) Tencent Holdings Tesla Motors Inc. Tether The Coca-Cola Co. The Travelers Companies Inc. Tiffany & Co Tilray Inc. Total S.A. Toyota Motor Corp. TripAdvisor Inc. TRON Twitter Inc. Uber Technologies United Technologies Corp. United Health Group Inc. USD/CAD USD/CHF USD/CLP USD/CNH USD/DKK USD/HKD USD/JPY USD/MXN USD/NOK USD/RUB USD/SEK USD/SGD USD/TRY USD/ZAR V.F. Corporation Vale S.A. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF VeChain Verge Veritaseum Verizon Communications Inc. VimpelCom Ltd. Vinci S.A. Visa Inc. Vodafone Group PLC Volkswagen AG Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Walt Disney Co. Walton Waves WAX Wells Fargo Williams-Sonoma Inc. WTI Crude Oil XMR/BTC XMR/ETH (Monero - Ethereum) Yahoo! Inc. Yandex N.V. Zcash ZClassic ZEC/BTC ZEC/ETH (Zcash - Ethereum) Aeroflot Bashneft VTB Gazprom Dollar Index Cocoa Coffee Corn Lukoil Norilsk Nickel Wheat Rosneft Rostelecom Sugar Sberbank Severstal Soya Surgutneftegaz Transneft Uralkali
Major benchmark oil prices are under pressure as the US dollar strengthens across the global market and US shale companies continue to ramp up their rig count.
Oilfield services company Baker Hughes recorded an increase in the number of operating drilling rigs in the United States by 7 units, to 414 units, according to the results of the previous week.
The US dollar was marked by a large-scale growth along the entire currency market as the FRS representatives expressed doubts about the effectiveness of further continuation of the loose monetary policy.
Prices have been very volatile lately and this is not surprising. The market is not yet able to confidently trade with Brent prices above $50 per barrel. This requires strong fundamental prerequisites, but they are still lacking. On Thursday we saw good stock data. But already on Friday, the dollar began to strengthen along the entire currency market and on the comments of the Fed representatives, and this is always a negative for oil.
This week, prices are unlikely to receive additional support from any side. This is the last week before the Fed meeting, and the dollar will feel confident. At the same time, a significant drop in inventories, which was recorded last week, most likely was of a one-time nature. Still, for a steady decline now is not the season.
Accordingly, the fluctuation range of 47-52 dollars per barrel remains quite logical. If the dollar continues to actively strengthen, then Brent may drop to 45, but this will already be interesting for purchases.
In contact with
The "Opinions" section of the website of the Economic Information Agency "PRIME" publishes materials provided by analysts, traders and experts of Russian and foreign companies, banks, as well as the opinions of the Agency's own experts "PRIME". The opinions of the authors on a particular issue, reflected in the materials published by the Agency, may not coincide with the opinion of the editors of AEI "PRIME". More
The opinions presented are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material and are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice to perform any actions and/or transactions, including the purchase or sale of securities. For all questions about posting information in the "Opinions" section, you can contact the editorial office of the agency: .
Prices for oil of the main benchmark grades were marked by the most rapid growth in 2016 after the OPEC countries at the regular meeting in Vienna agreed to cut production. Valery Polkhovsky, an analyst at the FOREX CLUB Group of Companies, writes about this.
Contracts for European Brent crude with an expiration date in February on the ICE exchange in London on November 21 at 11:00 Moscow time added 0.9% to $51.90 per barrel. At the same time, the US benchmark WTI was up 0.9% to 49.40. A day earlier, both varieties added about 8% in price.
On November 30 in Vienna, the OPEC countries agreed to reduce oil production from January 2017 according to the agreements announced on September 28 in Algiers. Since the beginning of 2017, the cartel will reduce production by a total of 1.2 million barrels, and expects non-OPEC countries to reduce production by 600 thousand barrels per day. The reduction quotas do not apply to Nigeria and Libya, while Iran will freeze production at 3.7 million barrels per day.
OPEC was able to overcome all key differences, shaming the naysayers, and signaling that the cartel is much more alive than dead. His return to the market as a regulator signals the end of the “pump as much as you can” policy and will help quickly balance supply and demand. If we manage to achieve a reduction of 1.8 million barrels per day, taking into account the obligations of non-OPEC countries, this will help the market quickly get rid of excess stocks and raise the price to the level of 50-60 dollars.
It is also worth noting that OPEC's decision to cut will be valid until mid-2017. At first glance, this seems to be a weak point, but it is not so at all. By setting quotas for only 6 months, the cartel avoids rising prices at the far end of the forward curve, which will prevent high-cost miners from using long-term contracts to hedge risks. If necessary, the decision to reduce can be extended in June.
Skeptics will now turn their attention to the fact that non-OPEC countries may not cut production. However, it is worth noting that in countries such as Mexico and Azerbaijan, production will fall naturally due to the depletion of deposits. If it fails to achieve a reduction in production from Russia, which is expected to be about 300 thousand barrels, then in general this will not make any fundamental changes to the plan.
“We believe that the growth of OPEC creates a new higher fundamentally sound corridor for price fluctuations. According to our preliminary estimates, its central value will be in the area of $55 per barrel. Toward the end of 2017, it may move to the level of $60,” concluded Valery Polkhovsky.
Valery Polkhovsky, Senior Analyst at Forex Club Group, shares his opinion on how recent world events may affect the Belarusian ruble exchange rate.
The Russian Sberbank issued a forecast in which the Russian ruble is expected to fall further. Following, according to the compilers of the forecast, the Belarusian currency should also weaken.
Among the risk factors for the Russian and Belarusian currencies: the falling oil price due to the lifting of sanctions against Iran, the bursting of the stock bubble in China, the increase in the discount rate by the US Federal Reserve System.
Valery Polkhovsky, Senior Analyst at Forex Club Group of Companies, in his comment “About business.” assessed the level of possible influence of these factors on the Belarusian ruble.
Valery Polkhovsky
Lifting sanctions on Iran
Some believe that the lifting of sanctions on Iran will lead to an increase in the supply of oil. This will bring down prices for it and, consequently, the Russian ruble, and after it the Belarusian one.
Indeed, Iran has the third largest oil reserves in the world. But he was under sanctions for more than one year. The state of its oil industry is deplorable. Oil production is not just covering a well with polyethylene when it is not needed, and then lifting the film and starting pumping.
Iran will need investments in the industry: equipment upgrades to reach the pre-sanctions level. This will take two years.
In addition, I do not think that the sanctions will be lifted quickly. For example, a UN mission will go there in December to see how the country is fulfilling the agreements. And if something goes wrong, the sanctions will be returned.
Thomson Reuters polled professional oil traders a few weeks ago about their expectations of Iran's entry into the oil market. 80% of respondents believe that by the end of the year Iran will be able to offer a maximum of 500 thousand barrels per day. Many are sure that Iran is unlikely to be able to provide more than 250 thousand. For reference: the world economy consumes 93 million barrels per day. So it's a small amount.
In a year, US shale oil production will fall by at least 1 million barrels. The number of operating drilling rigs is already being reduced by 50%. So even if Iran covers this volume, globally nothing will change on the market. Prices are likely to fix at $50-70 per barrel for several years. The average annual price will be around $60, which corresponds to the USD/RUB rate of 55-60.
Fed discount rate
Many experts expect the dollar to strengthen due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve is going to raise the discount rate. This strengthening will automatically weaken the Russian and Belarusian currencies.
For many, this increase is perceived as the end of the world. But where is the stake now? At the level of 0.25%. The FRS stated that it would not raise it sharply (members of the Federal Committee on Operations of the US Federal Reserve believe that the optimal rate at the end of the year will be 0.625%). At best, it will be moved by 0.25% at each Fed meeting.
There are 8 meetings per year. This is a maximum of 2% for a full year. So this year the growth will be no more than 0.5-0.75%. Even if you imagine that you get 2.25%, this is still a very low rate.
Practice shows that the US economy begins to slow down when the discount rate reaches 4%. This level is still far away.
Despite the rate hike in the US, a number of world countries are softening interest rates: Japan, China, the Eurozone. So we will see some strengthening of the dollar, it may put pressure on the Russian ruble. But the pressure won't be strong.
The dollar may strengthen against the euro due to intra-European problems.
Bursting stock bubble in China
In the US, 80% of companies finance their needs through the stock markets. In Europe - 20%, in China about the same level. So the damage from the bursting bubble is not so massive. I would not say that it will lead to financial starvation.
In addition, the People's Bank of China is already running stimulus programs. Injects liquidity into the country's financial system.
Therefore, there is a problem, but it is not global.
What awaits the Belarusian ruble before the end of the year
Now the dependence between the Russian and Belarusian rubles is clearly visible. If the Russian ruble weakens, then the Belarusian one, most likely, will also.
I believe that the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian one at the level of 300 rubles is an equilibrium one. Businesses need to make sure that the RUB/BYR ratio is 270-300. If the corridor begins to change, this will indicate an impending imbalance.
As for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the US dollar, I believe that by the end of the year the national currency may weaken by 1,500 rubles. Volatility can be 500-700 rubles.
There are no prerequisites for a sharp fluctuation yet:
1. As I have already noted, oil prices have already stabilized at $55-65 per barrel. This corresponds to the rate at USD/RUB55-61. And he is already in this corridor.
2. Payments of Belarus on external debts, most likely, will take place with the help of loans from Russia.
As for the jumps in the exchange rate in recent days (the ruble has been strengthening over the past few days - approx. "About business."), then this can be explained by the actions of the National Bank. It expands the range of fluctuations to discourage speculators from playing against the national currency.
