03.03.2021

Putin's program for families without children. Putin proposed measures to improve the demographic situation. Matkapital is effective in all regions of the country


Children are the future of Russia. The assessors of the coordinating collegial council of the National Strategy were guided by this principle, developing and adopting new measures to support families with children in 2018. What measures will be taken to improve the demographic situation?

A few years ago, a national strategy, implemented through the maternity capital program, was aimed at encouraging people to expand their families and have second and third children. Today, for many young people who have just entered the labor force, the financial issue becomes a stumbling block in the desire to have a first child.

In Putin's speech, one of the main messages regarding support for families with children in 2018 is the need to expand the capabilities of the "young family" program.

Given the low material income and difficult demographic situation, since January 1, 2018, the state has been offering support to young families expecting their first child. The program includes parents whose earnings are below 1.5 times the minimum income required to ensure a decent standard of living.

The amount of the targeted allowance is equal to the minimum monthly amount necessary for life:

  • for 2018 - this is 10.5 thousand rubles;
  • in 2019 - 10.8 thousand rubles;
  • in 2020 - 11.1 thousand rubles.

The allowance is paid until the baby reaches the age of 1.5 years. It will be possible to send maternity capital from the moment the baby reaches 2 months of age to pay for the services of preschool education institutions.

Program for families with two and three children

The program for the payment of material assistance - maternity allowance, developed and implemented more than a dozen years ago, will continue for the next 3 years. Its validity has been extended until December 31, 2021.

In addition, in order to provide support for families with two children in 2018, the state is ready to pay from maternity capital targeted assistance to parents planning to give birth to a second and third baby. Social material assistance will be paid to families in need on a monthly basis based on the established minimum income level, which in 2018 is 10.5 thousand rubles. Payments stop when the baby reaches 1.5 years old.

Plus, the federal budget provides for financing of regions in which the birth rate is below average. It will go towards making payments of material assistance for the third child until he reaches the age of 3 years. In 2017, 60 regions reached this threshold.

Housing for large families

For many working people, housing is also a limiting factor in the decision to have children. As part of the family support program in 2018, Putin approved the decision to subsidize mortgage loans in excess of 6%. As the world practice shows, the absolute majority of families can handle such an interest rate. Thanks to this, many Russian families will finally be able to fulfill their cherished dream in the coming years - to acquire their own living space.

To make housing affordable, the state is ready to compensate for the difference between the current mortgage rate and the 6% mark. In the mortgage lending market, the weighted average rate is 10.05%. According to the program, the state is ready to take on more than 4% of the loan cost. The amounts will be compensated by federal funds.

Parents with two or three children are eligible for the program. It has a limited duration:

  • with two children - 3 years old;
  • with three children - 5 years old.

If, by December 31, 2022, a third baby appears in a family with two children by the end of the 3-year term of the program, the subsidy will be extended for another 5 years. In a situation where the third child is born after the end of the period for calculating the subsidy, but no later than the end of 2022, the program will re-enter into force from the day of his birth.

It is expected that such state support will contribute to the successful solution of two tasks at once: motivate people to have children and, at the same time, stimulate mortgage lending. Indeed, according to the estimates of the analytical center, today in Russia the number of working poor has reached a critical level of 12 million. At the same time, more than 20 million inhabitants of the country have crossed the poverty line long ago. With a well-planned national strategy, it will be possible to reduce this indicator only in 6-8 years.

Vladimir Putin, who has not yet announced his presidential nomination, has already promised gifts to the population. From 2018, new benefits will appear for families with children, a mortgage subsidy program and maternity capital will be extended. The price of gifts is more than 200 billion rubles. The money has already been included in the draft budget for 2018–2020. - in the presidential reserve.

The measures should stimulate the birth rate, Putin explained. After the baby boom in 2000, it began to decline: in January - September 2017, it practically did not grow in annual terms, and the natural population decline exceeded 100,000 people against the natural increase for the same period in 2016 by 18,000 people.

Firstborn money

Since 2018, those who give birth to the first-born of a family will receive a monthly subsistence minimum for a child until he turns one and a half years old. This minimum is different for each region, but on average in 2018–2020. will exceed 10,000 rubles. The aid will be targeted - only poor families will be able to count on the allowance. In total, the government will spend more than 144 billion rubles on this.

It is unclear who is considered poor, the federal official admits: without a system of a unified register of people and households, the real structure and level of poverty is unclear. It is possible to do without the register, argues the director of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting of the RANEPA Tatyana Maleva: we are talking about people who do not have enough money for current consumption. If the family's income is less than 1.5 times the subsistence level, it can get into the program, she says. In the first half of 2017, 14.4% of the total population had incomes below the subsistence level.

People are already receiving the allowance for caring for their first child up to one and a half years. But in the II quarter of 2017, it was slightly above 3000 rubles. The new allowance can become a serious measure of support, says Maleva: many people even receive a salary below the subsistence level, and families cannot decide not only for a second or third child, even the first. The number of families with two or three children is growing faster than families without them, she says. For a family on the brink of poverty in the region, this is a huge help, another federal official agrees.

Capital for a drink?

Another measure is the extension of the maternity capital program until the end of 2021 (earlier it was supposed to end at the end of 2018). The goals for which such money can be spent will also expand: families in special need will be able to receive monthly payments (the same amount as the new benefits for the first child) until the child turns one and a half years old. The capital can also be spent on nannies caring for children.

The measure can turn the program into a new allowance, the official is skeptical, only it will not be spent on children, but on drink. Now of the three possible goals - education of the child, improvement of housing conditions or replenishment of the funded part of the mother's pension - money is most often spent on housing. But not every family needs it and can afford it, argues Maleva: with the crisis, incomes fall and many do not even have enough money for food. "Individual families can really drink away capital, but do we have 146 million people - alcoholics?" She says, wondering why everyone should suffer because of troubled families. Many have asked for permission to spend money on a nursery for a long time, says Maleva, however, without the construction of new nurseries, the measure may not work, she warns.

Mortgage at 6%

Modernization for children

RUB 50 billion will be allocated for the reconstruction and re-equipment of children's clinics. The situation with hospitals is already almost critical: 31% of hospitals and polyclinics have no running water, 35.5% - sewerage, 40.5% - central heating, follows from the data of the Accounts Chamber. According to her calculations, in 13 years, without allocating money to upgrade more than 70% of medical equipment, it will be impossible to use

For wealthier families, the government will revive the mortgage subsidy program. For those of them who will have their second and third children from 2018, a program to subsidize the mortgage interest rate will be launched. When buying a home on the primary market or refinancing mortgage loans, they will be able to count on subsidizing rates in excess of 6% per annum for three years from the date of the loan at the birth of the second child and five years - the third. Now the average mortgage rate is 10.5%, it follows from the Central Bank data, thus the state will take over 4% of the loan cost. In 2018–2023 the program can reach over 500,000 families, Putin referred to the Ministry of Construction's assessment. The price of the program is 10 billion rubles, the official says.

In 2015-2016 there was already a subsidy program at 12% per annum (the state compensated the borrower for the difference between this value and the bank's rate). Anyone could use it, but only for an apartment in a new building. The share of loans issued with its help exceeded 35% in the banking system, recalls Vadim Pakhalenko, director of the mortgage lending department of TKB bank. But the new program will have a smaller audience, he believes, the number of loans to such families will not exceed 7-8%. Banks will be able to increase their client base, Pakhalenko hopes, but the main limitation on the use of subsidies is the cost of real estate.

The social block of the Russian government proposed a package of measures to stimulate the birth rate. Demographic experts told the site about what measures are actually worth taking to increase the birth rate in the country.

What measures have the government proposed?

To stimulate the birth rate in the country. The department proposes to continue the payment of maternity capital until 2023. This was stated by Minister Maxim Topilin.

It is noted that the program was launched in 2007 and will operate until the end of 2018. About 400 billion rubles a year are allocated for this state program, which is half of the state's expenditures for supporting motherhood.

Another idea of ​​the government's social bloc is to increase the childcare allowance for women who become mothers under 25. The Ministry of Labor said that such an idea will stimulate women not to postpone the birth of their first child.

However, the department noted that "there is a risk that a woman under 25 will not have time to get an education, to acquire a profession - and this will lead to women leaving the labor market."

The Ministry of Finance proposed other measures to stimulate the birth rate: to extend the payment of the matkap until 2019, and then reformat the program. The agency also put forward two conditions: to pay maternity capital only in regions where the birth rate is below the average for Russia, and also to pay maternity capital in regions with a natural migration decline in the population, and only to those families whose incomes after the birth of their second child fall below 2.5 subsistence level. minimum.

It is noted that the Ministry is ready to use the saved money for other measures to stimulate the birth rate, including new targeted payments and benefits.

"During the existence of maternity capital, Russia has come out almost to the first place in terms of fertility in the world."

According to Chairman of the Board of the NGO "Council for Public Health and Demography" Daria Khalturina, the measures proposed by the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Finance are not effective, since a few generations of the 90s become mothers.

"A much larger resource is made up of older women, and they need to be motivated no less than young mothers. Most likely, after 2023, they can limit the receipt of maternity capital, despite the fact that maternity capital has proved to be an effective measure that can be borrowed. other developed countries. During the existence of maternity capital, Russia came out almost to the first place in terms of fertility in the world, "- said Khalturina in an interview with the site.

She noted that the most effective measures to stimulate the birth rate are "cash payments" (cash that a young mother can immediately receive).

“It would also be advisable to increase the possibility of implementing a matkap. Tax deductions for parents should be lowered, since we have the largest contingent of the poor in our country. Another effective measure could be the availability of childcare services for children under three years of age. which no one says, some home kindergartens. You can also establish subsidies for nannies, make kindergartens more client-oriented - they should not close for the summer, but should work until seven in the evening, and not until six. There is also a practice of flexible hours for parents in the world If this is the profession of an air traffic controller, then we are not talking about flexible working hours. the practice was introduced by law, "explained the expert on demography.

"If new measures are not taken to support the birth rate and prevent mortality, the Russian population will decline to 140 million people by 2020"

She also added that there are dozens of studies on Russian demography. One of these reports was published in 2014, co-authored by Daria Khalturina. In the report of the Institute of Scientific and Public Expertise of the International Laboratory of Political Demography and Macrosociological Dynamics of the RANEPA it is said that the demographic situation in Russia has improved in recent years. According to preliminary data, the number of births in Russia in 2013 for the first time in the last 20 years exceeded the number of deaths, in connection with which natural population growth was achieved. These are the results of a successful government policy to support fertility, reduce harmful alcohol consumption, and develop a health care system.

Experts have carried out calculations of several scenarios of the demographic development of Russia until 2050.

"If new measures are not taken to support the birth rate and prevent mortality, the Russian population will decline to 140 million by 2020 and to 113 million by 2050," RANEPA experts concluded.

The experts also noted that the potential for demographic growth in Russia is higher than in European countries, and measures to support families with children can give better results at lower costs than in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - website).

“In adherence to traditional family values, Russia has higher indicators than in most European countries, including countries with higher fertility. two or three years) of a rise in the birth rate, "the document says.

According to Rosstat, in the first quarter of 2017, the birth rate in Russia fell by 10.1 percent. In the capital in 2016, the birth rate increased by two percent compared to the previous year.

"There is no family approach and interaction with the family. More than 30 percent of children in Russia are brought up without fathers."

Scientific Director of the Independent Institute of Family and Demography Igor Beloborodov told in an interview with the site that it is necessary to stimulate the birth of children not only young mothers, but also fathers, and in general to comprehensively influence the family.

“The problem is that in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Labor there is not a single person with a demographic education, there are functionaries who look at everything through the outdated Soviet prism. when young mothers are stimulated. But I do not see stimulation of young fathers. There is no family approach and interaction with the family. More than 30 percent of children in Russia are brought up without fathers. It is impossible to build a demographic policy on matriarchal grounds, "the expert explained.

He also named a number of measures that, in his opinion, will be able to raise the birth rate in Russia.

“It is necessary to add a family-oriented approach, work not only for the mother, but for the whole family, as well as work with the target group - large families. To improve the demographic situation in Russia, 20 percent of large families with five or six children will be enough. This is a completely feasible task that does not require special funds, "Beloborodov said.

He stressed that Russia is already on the verge of a demographic hole. The scientific director made such conclusions based on the statistics of marriages for 2016.

“In 2016, there were 200 thousand fewer marriages than in previous years. This (demographic crisis - site) is already taking place, which only confirms my conclusions that it is necessary to work with those who are ready to give birth. (for large families - site) to show that their social status will grow in proportion to the number of children in the family, "Beloborodov concluded.

Previously, the Minister of Labor and Social Protection of Russia for the system of monthly payments.

In his opinion, monthly payments will cost the state much more. In addition, matkap is a system for stimulating the birth of children, not a support for families.

Vladimir Putin called the aggravation of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation a predictable trend. “I mean the recession during the Great Patriotic War, and about the same recession in the mid-90s due to the huge problems that arose in the economy, and, in fact, the collapse in the social sphere,” the president explained.

During the Coordinating Council for the Implementation of the National Strategy for Action in the Interests of Children, the Russian leader called on "to take a set of measures that will stabilize and prevent a decline in the population of Russia in the coming decade" - in fact, to reset the demographic policy.

In the foreground, according to the president, comes the support of large families, as well as families with modest incomes, the creation of additional incentives for the birth of a second and third child. Putin urged to pay special attention to young families.

Thus, the president proposes to introduce, starting in 2018, monthly payments to young families at the birth of their first child before they reach one and a half years. The amount will be calculated based on the size of the child's subsistence minimum established in the region.

Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation: “On average, it will amount to 10,523 rubles in 2018, 10,836 rubles in 19, and 11,143 rubles in 20. In this case, the payment will be targeted. I think it is fair to first of all support those who really need it. "

In addition, in Russia, the maternity capital program can be extended until December 31, 2021, as well as the scope of its application can be expanded. Matkapital can also be used to pay for preschool education services - for caring for and looking after a child from two months of age. Families in special need can start receiving monthly payments from the mother capital account, Putin stressed.

Putin announced the preparation of a special mortgage program for families with a second or third child - they will be able to count on state subsidies of interest rates in excess of 6% per annum. The possibilities of such a program can be used by families in which a second or third child is born from January 1, 2018.

Also, the Russian leader demanded that the queues in the nursery for children from 2 months to 3 years be eliminated by analogy with the measures taken in relation to kindergartens. “Now applications have been received from parents of over 326 thousand children. The same number of nursery places is planned to be created in the next two years, ”said the President of the Russian Federation.

Separately, the President noted the problem with the quality of children's medical care. He noted that in recent years there has been a "good breakthrough" in the creation of perinatal centers in the regions, but the state of most children's polyclinics leaves much to be desired. And he demanded to work out this issue. The federal budget in the next three years will annually allocate 10 billion rubles to the regions of the Russian Federation for the reconstruction and equipping of children's clinics, the Russian leader said.

According to the head of state, the implementation of the measures he proposed to improve the birth rate in the country will yield results.

Vladimir Putin: “We are talking about the future of the country, about the birth of as many children as possible in Russia, and about the improvement of their living conditions and health care.”

Stimulating fertility and supporting families with children in modern Russia

V. Elizarov
(Published in the book: Fertility and Family Planning in Russia: History and Prospects. Collection of articles / Ed. Troitskoy I.A., Avdeeva A.A. - M., 2011. - ("Demographic Research", issue 18). with.)

An increasing number of countries with low fertility are beginning to think about the consequences of depopulation, considering this process as a problem of national security, and given the scale of replacement migration, as a problem of preserving national identity.

A growing number of countries assess the birth rate as too low: from 16 in 1976 to 48 in 2007, as well as countries that consider it necessary to stimulate an increase in the birth rate: from 13 in 1976 to 39 in 2007. From countries, governments who estimated the prevailing birth rate in 2007 as too low, 80% considered it necessary to pursue a policy of increasing it.

Table 1. Government fertility estimates and policies

Assessments and policies

Countries

Share,
%

Countries

Share,
%

Countries

Share,
%

Countries

Share,
%

The birth rate is considered:

too low

satisfactory

too high

It is considered necessary to influence fertility in order to:

increase

no impact planned

Source: WPP2007. United Nations, 2008: 42, 44.

In developed countries, the total fertility rate dropped in 2000-2005 to the level of 1.6 births per woman on average. Therefore, if in 1976 less than 21% of developed countries considered the current birth rate too low, in 2007 it was already more than 60%. Out of 49 developed countries, 30 (including 27 European ones) estimated the birth rate in their countries as low in 2007 (19 in 1996, 9 in 1986). At the same time, 26 countries, including 24 European ones, considered it necessary to influence the birth rate in order to increase it.

Russia has also long been one of the countries with low fertility, which does not provide population reproduction in the future. In combination with a higher mortality rate than in other developed countries, low fertility has led to a steady depopulation observed since 1992, the scale of which is determined both by fluctuations in fertility and mortality rates, and by the size of migration growth, replacing part of the natural population decline.

The maximum population of Russia was reached by the beginning of 1993 and amounted to 148.6 million people, the estimate at the beginning of 2010 was about 141.9 million people. Since 1992, the number of deaths has steadily exceeded the number of births. For 19 years (1992-2010) the difference between the number of births and deaths in Russia amounted to more than 13 million people. This decrease was by 6.4 million (or 48%) offset by the increase in migration. During this period, the absolute population decline amounted to more than 6.6 million people.

The demographic development of Russia is in many respects similar to the general European trends (low fertility, changing family structure, aging of the population, etc.). At the same time, the accelerated growth of crisis phenomena was determined by the special conditions and difficulties of the so-called transition period (falling real incomes, growing poverty, growing inequality, high unemployment, reduced social guarantees and free services in health care and education, etc.) ...

The collapse of the USSR (1991) raised the question of developing in Russia a concept of its own demographic policy, taking into account new economic, social and political conditions.

As the legal successor of the USSR, Russia has kept in operation the basic legal norms and directions of the demographic policy inherited from the USSR, and has preserved many measures of socio-economic and legal support for motherhood and childhood.

The transition to a market economy, the formation of new approaches to social policy required a significant reassessment of the existing system of views on the role and place of national demographic policy, family policy, social protection of mothers and children. They discussed both the principles of development and the issues of implementation, resource provision and regionalization, taking into account the specifics of the demographic, economic and socio-cultural development of the regions of Russia.

The Constitution adopted in 1993 stated that in the Russian Federation "State support for family, motherhood, fatherhood and childhood is provided, ... benefits and other guarantees of social protection are established"(Constitution of the Russian Federation, 1993, Art. 7, p. 2).

In the conditions of a transitional economy, price liberalization and high inflation, a policy of social protection of families with children was pursued. It included compensatory payments and benefits designed to mitigate the impact of the crisis experienced by Russia on the living standards of families with children, to resist a further drop in the birth rate (among them were quarterly benefits for baby clothes, and even bread benefits). There were also natural aid measures: coupons and cards for scarce goods, distribution of humanitarian aid to large families.

1993 was declared the International Year of the Family by the United Nations. This served as the impetus for the development of a new document in the field of family policy - Family policy concepts, approved on May 12, 1993 by the National Council for the preparation and holding of the International Year of the Family in Russia.

The first official report was timed to coincide with the International Year of the Family "On the situation of families in the Russian Federation"(1994), in which a special section "State family policy" was highlighted. The exchange of views and research results in the field of family and family policy was facilitated by the publication since 1994 of the journal "Family in Russia", highlighted in the content of the special heading "Family Policy".

The decline in inflation by the mid-1990s made it possible to raise the question of streamlining the complex, chaotic and inconsistent system of compensations and benefits that existed at that time.

The new system of benefits introduced by Federal Law No. 81-FZ "On State Benefits to Citizens with Children" dated May 19, 1995. (with subsequent changes) included:

  • Maternity allowance in the amount of the average earnings at the place of work, paid for the period 70 days before childbirth and 70 (in case of complicated childbirth - 86, with the birth of two or more children - 110) days after childbirth. At the same time, the leave was calculated in total, and the benefit was provided in full, regardless of the number of days spent on prenatal leave.
  • Lump-sum allowance for women registered with medical institutions in the early stages of pregnancy, i.e. up to 12 weeks (50% of the minimum wage, later - 100%).
  • Lump sum at the birth of a child (10 minimum wages, later - 15).
  • Monthly allowance for the period of parental leave until the child reaches the age of one and a half years (in the amount of 100% of the minimum wage, later - 200%).

Monthly allowance for children (70% of the minimum wage), increased benefits for single mothers and some other categories of families.

Was developed and adopted for implementation "National Action Plan for Children" (approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 942 of September 14, 1995). The action plan contained section 3.2. "Supporting the family as a natural living environment for children."

An important step in ensuring legal regulation and support for the development of the family was the adoption of a new "Family Code of the Russian Federation", which entered into force on March 1, 1996. In many respects, it differed significantly from the old Code of Laws on Marriage and Family of the RSFSR, which had been in force since 1969. New concepts were introduced such as the marriage contract (Art. 40-44) and the adoptive family (Art. 151-154); a number of changes and additions have been made to the procedure for collecting alimony (Art. 80-120); facilitated the establishment of paternity in a judicial proceeding in relation to children born out of a registered marriage (art. 49); amended the rules governing marriage and divorce.

A more fundamental document was prepared based on the Concept of Family Policy "The main directions of state family policy" (approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 712 of May 14, 1996). It provided for “... further development of the family allowance system, which includes support for all families with children; a gradual increase in the share of spending on family benefits, including benefits for pregnancy and childbirth and childcare under the age of one and a half years, in the gross domestic product to 2.2 percent ”?

In accordance with the recommendations of UNICEF (United Nations Children's Fund), these costs should be at least 2.5-3.5% of GDP (in depending on the share of the child population and the level of child poverty). According to UNICEF estimates in the mid-1990s, Russia needed to increase government spending on child benefits by at least 2 percentage points of GDP. In 1991, this indicator - the share of spending on family benefits - in the Russian Federation was about 2%, in 1994 - about 1% of GDP.

Support coverage principle of all families with children was somewhat violated by the adoption in 1998 of the Federal Law (No. 134-FZ of July 29) "On Amendments and Addenda to the Federal Law" On State Benefits to Citizens with Children ". In accordance with this law, the right to a monthly child benefit was established in families with an average per capita income not exceeding 200% of the subsistence level in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Most of the families met this criterion.

In 1999, the transition to a new model for the appointment and payment of benefits began. on a targeted basis - only for children in low-income families. The Federal Law of July 17, 1999 No. 171-FZ "On Amending Article 16 of the Federal Law" On State Benefits to Citizens with Children "was adopted. According to this law, since August 1999, the right to a monthly child allowance was established only for families with an average per capita income not exceeding 100% of the subsistence minimum in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. According to the legislators, such a measure was supposed to ensure the redistribution of limited financial resources in the interests of the poorest families with children.

To ensure the targeted provision of monthly child benefits, the Government of the Russian Federation was first developed and approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated September 29, 1999, No. 1096 "Procedure for calculating the average per capita income", which gives the right to receive monthly child benefits.

Despite the measures taken, on the whole, in Russia during the second half of the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s, there was a clear weakening of state support for the family. From 1995 to 2000, maternal and family benefits were set as a percentage of the minimum wage (minimum wage), which, in theory, was supposed to compensate for the rise in prices (inflation). Since 2001, benefits have been established at a fixed rate. The amount of benefits was periodically revised upwards.

The level of expenditures on measures to support families (the share of expenditures on family, maternity and child benefits in% of GDP) also decreased in 2003-2006. was 8-10 times less than the level of these costs in European countries, where they average from 2 to 2.5%. In France, for example, they are about 4%.

The decline in Russia's population, which has continued since 1992, prompted the authorities to develop a comprehensive strategy. In February 2001, the Russian government reviewed the draft “Concept of demographic policy for the period up to 2015”. However, by the fall, the document had slightly changed its name. By order of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 1270-r dated September 24, 2001, the developed by the Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation was approved

"Concept of the demographic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015", in which the long-term goal of demographic policy was set: stabilization of the population of Russia and the creation of prerequisites for population growth. The Concept formulated the main directions and priorities of the policy in the field of fertility and family strengthening, in the field of reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy, in the field of migration. It was envisaged that specific action plans and programs for the implementation of this concept would be developed, in particular, measures to stimulate the birth rate (benefits, tax benefits, housing subsidies for young families, etc.).

The priorities in the area of ​​fertility stimulation included:

  • increasing the material well-being of the family and creating socio-economic conditions favorable for the birth, maintenance and upbringing of several children;
  • work with decent wages, as well as the ability to provide a family with appropriate housing conditions;
  • providing workers with children, conditions conducive to the combination of work and family responsibilities.

This assumed:

  • improving the system of paying benefits to citizens with children, including increasing the amount of benefits and ensuring their targeting;
  • a differentiated approach to determining the amount of benefits and tax deductions, taking into account the material conditions of the family and its social status;
  • improving the living conditions of young families in the event of a child's birth, allocating gratuitous subsidies at the regional level and using the mechanism of concessional lending depending on the number of children in the family.

Unfortunately, the declarative nature of the Concept was not supplemented by real plans of measures for its implementation. At the same time, the implementation mechanism involved the development of regional concepts. And this work was done in many regions, which, however, did not allow to seriously affect the improvement of the demographic situation.

Until 2001, monthly child benefits were paid from regional and local budgets. The result was disastrous. In the late 1990s, the indebtedness for the payment of benefits began to grow, which by mid-1999 exceeded 30 billion rubles (an amount comparable to the arrears of wages). Only in three regions - Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Samara region - there was no debt. In some areas, benefits have not been paid for 2-3 years!

Starting in 2001, funds for the current payment of benefits began to be allocated to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for a targeted purpose (in the form of subventions). They were included in the Compensation Fund, financed from the federal budget. Subventions from the federal budget allocated to the regions for the payment of monthly allowances in 2001 were to amount to 22.8 billion rubles.

Debts began to decline and reached 15 billion rubles by April 2002. The rapid reduction in debt was facilitated by a more than 1.5-fold decrease in the number of recipients due to the transition to targeted allocation of benefits (not for all children, but only for children in families with incomes below the subsistence level). At the end of 2004, the indebtedness for benefits amounted to only about 2 billion rubles.

After the entry into force of Federal Law No. 122-FZ of August 22, 2004 in 2005, the main activities, responsibility and financing of social support for the overwhelming majority of families were transferred to the regions.

In accordance with FZ-122, Article 16 of the Federal Law "On State Benefits to Citizens with Children" in the new edition sounds like this: "The amount, procedure for the appointment and payment of monthly child benefits are established by laws and other regulatory legal acts of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation."

Since January 1, 2005, each constituent entity of the Russian Federation pays benefits in the amount and on conditions determined by its own legal norms. This situation predetermines significant differences between regions in the level of support for families with children. In most regions (including Moscow), in 2005, the same amount of benefit remained - 70 rubles a month (plus the regional coefficient where it exists). Since 2006, the allowance in Moscow has been increased to 150 rubles. In about a third of the RF subjects, the allowances were increased up to 80-100 rubles by the normative acts adopted for 2005. Regional budgets, for the most part, find it difficult to fully finance the costs of paying a monthly child benefit, all the more to ensure the growth of their purchasing power.

The federal budget for 2005 provided subsidies to the regions (to whom more, to whom less) for the implementation of the law on child benefits in the amount of more than 4 billion rubles. But this is less than 1/4 of the 2004 benefit expenditure. Not all regions were able to painlessly cope with such a significant financial burden on their budgets, and arrears on child benefits in a number of regions remained, albeit on a much smaller scale.

The most expensive traditionally was the monthly child allowance. So in 1995, 85% of all expenses for family benefits were paid for it (see Vol. abl. 2). By 2003, its share decreased to about 1/2, by 2006 - to 1/3, by 2007-2008. - up to 1/5. Since 2007, the most costly benefit has been the childcare benefit for up to 1.5 years old, in 2008 it accounted for 45% of all expenses, and the second place was taken by the maternity benefit (26% of all expenses).

Table 2. Expenses for payment of family and maternity benefits

the years

Expenses for family and maternity benefits - total, million rubles. (1995 - billion rubles)

of them:

for pregnancy and childbirth 1)

at the birth of a child 1)

for caring for a child up to 1.5 years 1)

monthly child allowance 2)

for the care of children with disabilities 1)

other family and maternity benefits

Share of family and maternity benefits,%:

to the volume of money income of the population

Arrears in payment of monthly child support, 2) in% of the total amount of paid child benefits

1) According to the data of the Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation.
2) According to the data of the Ministry of Health and Social Development of Russia.
Source: Russian Statistical Yearbook. 2010. M., 2010

The turning point in relation to demographic policy in general and to measures to support families with children in particular occurred after the 2006 Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly.

One of the main provisions of the Address-2006: "No migration will help solve demographic problems if we do not create conditions for the birth rate in our country, we do not develop our own family support programs."

The 2006 Address proposed a program "Stimulating the birth rate, namely: measures to support young families, support women who decide to give birth and raise a child on their feet." Attention was focused on the fact that "Today we must stimulate the birth of at least a second child." And it was the right decision.

If we make it so that there are more families with two and three children than there are now, this will give a chance to keep the birth rate from declining, to maintain the achieved level (the total fertility rate in 2009-2010 exceeded 1.5 births per woman). And in the long term, with a more active and effective policy, one should strive for the level of the countries of Northern and Western Europe (1.7-1.9 births per woman).

The 2006 Address named the reasons that hinder making a free decision on the birth of a second and third child. The economic ones were also mentioned - low income and lack of normal living conditions, and psychological factors - doubts about their own ability to provide the future child with a decent level of medical services, quality education, and sometimes doubts about whether they will be able to feed the children.

The 2006 Address also proposed specific measures to support young families and women, designed to stimulate the birth of at least a second child:

    an increase in the size of the allowance for caring for a child up to 1.5 years,

    introduction of compensation for the costs of preschool education,

    increase in the cost of birth certificates, maternity capital.

By the end of 2006, all the laws necessary to legalize the new policy measures were passed.

Implemented in 2007-2009 additional measures to support women-mothers and families with children, as well as measures within the framework of the National Project "Health" were designed to stop the growth of the demographic crisis, create the preconditions for the transition to a more active demographic policy, create better conditions for families for the birth and upbringing of children, preservation and strengthening their health.

IN 2007 year allowances for childcare up to 1.5 years of age were significantly increased (from 700 rubles to 1500-6000 rubles), childcare benefits for unemployed women were introduced for the first time (1500 rubles at the birth of their first child, 3000 rubles at birth second and following). For the first time, the allowance for working women became wage-tied - 40% of the salary at the time of going on maternity leave, but not lower than that of non-working mothers. The maximum amount of the allowance was also set - no more than 6,000 rubles.

The size of the “generic certificate”, which was first introduced in 2006, slightly increased - from 7 to 10 thousand rubles; at the same time, in addition to stimulating antenatal clinics (3 thousand) and maternity hospitals (6 thousand), stimulation of postnatal monitoring of the child's health in the children's polyclinic was introduced (1 thousand rubles).

Part of the additional funds was spent on incentives (salaries) for medical personnel (35-55% of funds, depending on the volume and quality of medical services), part - for the purchase of new equipment, part of the funds - for providing pregnant women with medicines, as well as vitamins and microelements.

Since 2007, applicants have been registered to receive (more precisely, to use!) Since 2010 a new measure of state support - the 250 thousandth maternity (family) capital.

In 2007, small compensation payments to parents for children attending preschool institutions were introduced, differentiated according to the order of birth of the child (20% of the payment for the first child, 50% for the second and 70% for the third and subsequent). The costs associated with the provision of compensation are financed by the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, while co-financing is provided through the provision of subsidies to the constituent entities from the budget of the Russian Federation. The introduction of compensation in the presence of a huge shortage of places puts families in unequal conditions in which children (there are about 5 million of them) attend preschool institutions, and families that are in line for a place in a kindergarten (more than 1.5 million children at the end of 2008) and may not wait for their turn because the children will grow up and go to school. The first ones were lucky - in these families, parents can work and bring income to the family, and they will also receive compensation (albeit small). The latter are either deprived of maternal income, or must pay for nanny services (these are additional and considerable expenses), and, of course, they will be able to exercise their right to compensation only after waiting for a place in a preschool institution.

From January 1 2008 r. the maximum amount of the maternity allowance was increased. In 2007, the Constitutional Court challenged the constitutionality of such a restriction. However, when the FSS budget for 2008 was approved, the maximum was nevertheless retained, but increased from 16 125 rubles to 23 400 rubles. This is approximately 1/12 of 280 thousand rubles - the size of the wage fund, which is subject to the maximum rate of the unified social tax in 2008. In 2007, only 7% of mothers receiving childcare benefits had a salary of 15,000 rubles or more at the time of going on maternity leave. In 2008, more than 11% of mothers with such a salary increased.

In order to prevent a decrease in the real purchasing power of social benefits and payments as a result of inflation, a mechanism for their indexation has been introduced since 2008. A law was passed establishing the indexation procedure. Previously, these benefits were indexed on a case-by-case basis, excluding inflation. Maternity capital was also indexed. Initially, it was decided to increase from January 1, 2008, all basic benefits and maternity capital by 8.5% (ie, for planned inflation, not actual). Thus, the amount of capital was increased from 250 to 271.25 thousand rubles.

In June 2008, a decision was made to re-index the benefits. So, from July 1, 2008, the increase in benefits was no longer 8.5% compared to 2007, but increased by another 1.85%. The maternity capital was also re-indexed - from 8.5 to 10.5%.

In 2008, by 1 thousand rubles. (from 10 to 11 thousand) the size of the "generic certificate" increased. The cost of coupon No. 3, intended to stimulate postnatal monitoring of the child's health in the children's clinic, was doubled. Both parts of coupon 3 (A and B) - for the first and second half of the first year of the child's life - increased in value from 500 rubles. up to 1 thousand rubles.

The crisis that began in 2008 prompted the government to include in anti-crisis programs and measures to support families. So it was allowed to use maternity capital in 2009, without waiting for 2010, to pay off mortgage loans and loans already taken for the construction or purchase of housing. In addition, it was allowed already in 2009 to use 12 thousand rubles from maternity (family) capital for current needs.

At the beginning 2009 r. it was also decided on further indexing benefits. Thus, from January 1, 2009, the increase in benefits amounted to the same 8.5% to the rates in effect at the end of 2008. At the same time, inflation in 2008 amounted to more than 13% (for families with children, whose incomes, as a rule, are below average , inflation is even higher - at least 15%). However, already from April 1, 2009, all basic benefits and maternity capital were increased by 13% (but not by pre-indexation, but recalculation from April 1, 2009 with an additional payment for January-March).

From January 1, 2009, the maximum amount of maternity benefits was increased again - from 23,400 rubles. up to RUB 25,390 per month (i.e. by 8.5%).

The system of benefits is complemented by tax deductions - standard and social. For each child supported by taxpayers who are parents, it is provided standard tax deduction(in relation to income taxed at a tax rate of 13%). In 2002-2004. the amount of the deduction was 300 rubles. for each month of the tax period, since January 1, 2005, it has been doubled - up to 600 rubles.

In 2006-2008. the amount and conditions of the deduction did not change, and only from January 1, 2009 the amount of the deduction was increased to 1000 rubles. At the same time, not only he has grown, but also the maximum amount, upon reaching which the right to deduction disappears - immediately from 40 to 280 thousand rubles. This means that employees with wages close to the average, and even slightly higher (up to 23.3 thousand rubles), could benefit from the benefit in 2009 in full within 12 months, and not 4-5 months, as before.

IN 2010 r. the procedure for determining the maximum allowance for caring for a child under 1.5 years old was changed. The average earnings, from which the monthly childcare allowance is calculated, cannot exceed the amount calculated by dividing by 12 the limit value of the base for calculating insurance contributions to the FSS (Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation) on the day of the insured event. Therefore, in 2010, the maximum allowable amount of childcare benefits increased significantly and amounted to 13,833 rubles. (415,000 rubles / 12 * 40%), while in 2009 the maximum amount was 7,492.4 rubles for a full calendar month. At the same time, the regional coefficient is now applied only to the minimum amounts of childcare benefits. As for the maximum of 13,833 rubles, it is the same for the entire territory of the Russian Federation and is not subject to an increase by the size of the regional coefficient.

From January 1, 2010, the maximum amount of maternity allowance was significantly increased - from 25,390 rubles to 34,583 rubles per month (immediately by 36.2%) - due to the fact that this maximum was determined as 1/12 not from 280 thousand, and from 415 thousand rubles.

The size of the indexation of all benefits for 2010 was set at 10%. The maternity (family) capital was also indexed in the same amount, as a result of which it grew from 312,162 rubles to 343,378 rubles.

As a continuation of the anti-crisis measures of 2009, those families where children were born from October 1 to December 31, 2009, were allowed to use part of the maternity capital (12 thousand rubles) until March 31, 2010. Later, a decision was made on the extension of the right to this payment and for the whole of 2010.

As for the monthly allowances for children, since 2005, they have been established directly in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, their size and conditions of appointment are regulated by local legislation. Benefits are assigned only to children in families with incomes below the subsistence level in the region. Benefits are small. So, in 2009-2010. in most regions, the allowance was 100-300 rubles. (minimum - 70 rubles, maximum - 1000 rubles), and only in 7 regions - 300 or more rubles. At the same time, the average size of the subsistence minimum for children was 5423 rubles in the second quarter of 2010, i.e. in most regions, the allowance covered only 2-7% of the living wage of children. At the end of 2008, parents received this allowance for 10.8 million children, in mid-2010 - for 10.2 million children, or 40% of the total number of children.

The dynamics of the size of basic benefits and other measures of demographic policy is presented below (Table 3).

Despite a significant increase in benefits over the past three years, their size remains relatively small. So, if the benefits were in accordance with the 1996 standards, they would be in 2010 (with the minimum wage 4330 rubles) would be:

Table 3. Sizes of benefits for families with children and other measures of demographic policy

Type of benefit or payment

Benefit amount in 2007

Benefit amount in 2008

Benefit amount in 2009

Benefit amount in 2010

Maternity allowance

no more than calculation RUB 16125

no more than calculation 23450 RUB

no more than calculation RUB 25,390

no more than calculation RUB 34,583

One-time childbirth allowance

from 1.01.2008
8680 RUB from 1.07.2008 RUB 8840.58

from 1.01.2009 RUB 9,592.03, from 1.04.2008 RUB 9,989.86

from 1.01.2010 RUB 10,988.85

Lump-sum allowance for women registered with honey. institutions in the early stages of pregnancy (up to 12 weeks)

from 1.01.2008 RUB 325.5
from 1.07.2008

from 1.01.2009 RUB 359.70
from 1.04.2009

from 1.01.2010 RUB 412.08,

Monthly allowance to mothers for caring for a child until the age of one and a half years (or persons replacing them):

non-working mothers who have given birth to their first child

from 1.01.2008 RUB 1,627.5, from 1.07.2008 RUB 1 657.61

from 1.01.2009 RUB 1798.5, from 1.04.2009 RUB 1,873.1

from 1.01.2010 RUB 2060.41

non-working mothers who have given birth to a second or next child

from 1.01.2008 RUB 3,255 from 1.07.2008 RUB 3,315.22

from 1.01.2009 RUB 3,597, from 1.04.2009 RUB 3,746.2

from 1.01.2010 RUB 4,120.82

working mothers (40% of the salary at the time of going on leave for
pregnancy and childbirth, not less than the unemployed benefit and not more than the maximum

maximum RUB 6,000

maximum from 1.01.2008 6510 rub.,
from 1.07.2008
6630,44 rub.

maximum from 1.01.2009 7194 RUB
from 1.04.2009

maximum from 1.01.2010

RUB13,833.33

Maternal (family) capital

from 1.01.2008 RUB 271 250 from 1.07.2008 RUB 276 250

from 1.01.2009 RUB 299,731.25
from 1.04.2009 RUB 312,162.5

from 1.01.2010 RUB 343378.8

Generic certificate

10 thousand rubles (3 + 6 + 0.5 + 0.5)

11 thousand rubles (3 + 6 + 1 + 1)

11 thousand rubles (3 + 6 + 1 + 1)

11 thousand rubles (3 + 6 + 1 + 1)

Activation of demographic policy in 2007-2010 posed a complex methodological problem to researchers: what existing and new methods and indicators to assess the effectiveness of the measures taken, how to ensure the correctness of these estimates, how to assess the effect of the new measures themselves, separating it from the influence of changing socio-economic conditions, which also affect the family's standard of living and demographic behavior. According to officials, the growth in the number of births by 19% (from 1,480,000 in 2006 to 1,762,000 in 2009) is due to the success of demographic policy, first of all, “maternity capital” and “birth certificates”.

In our opinion, childcare benefits for children under 1.5 years old could also play a big role, especially for unemployed or low-paid women. In addition, part of the increase is due to a favorable age structure as a result of the high birth rate in the mid-1980s. In the last decade, there has been an increase in the number of young people aged 20-29. The potential number of grooms and brides grew, this created a favorable background for the creation of new families and marriages, as well as for an increase in the birth of the first, and in the future, the second children.

And one more important, in our opinion, factor explaining the increase in the number of births, first of all, second and third: in recent years, representatives of the generation of the 80s have become young parents, in which more than half of the children grew up in two children, and some of them in large families. families. This generation seems to find it easier to respond to measures to stimulate the birth rate (a hypothesis that has yet to be tested).

Despite the apparent scale of the adopted in 2007-2010. measures, in our opinion, they are clearly not enough to enable young families to make more free and responsible decisions about the birth of children. The analysis shows that even the doubling of expenditures on family support in 2007 in relation to 2006 and their indexation in 2008-2010. leaves this indicator (in% of GDP) at a level 1.5-2 times lower than it was in Russia in 1995, and 4-5 times lower than in 1990-1991. The contribution of benefits to family income is still insignificant.

The assistance that is currently provided to families with children is clearly not enough both for a more complete implementation of the existing attitudes towards the birth of a second and subsequent children, and for stimulating the birth rate, changing the value system, and increasing the prestige of a family with several children.

Families with minor children have an increased risk of poverty as a result of low wages and low maternal and child benefits. The birth of a child for most young families means a sharp decline in living standards. The number of children has become one of the main drivers of poverty.

The more children a family has, the lower its average per capita income; the higher the birth rate, the greater the proportion of poor families with incomes below the subsistence level. Families in which the mother receives childcare benefits for a child up to one and a half years of age are in a particularly difficult situation, as well as families with preschool children with one employee. Due to the huge shortage of places in preschool institutions and the inability to provide high-quality and affordable childcare, many mothers cannot start work after the end of parental leave for up to one and a half years. The accumulated deficit (more than 1.9 million places) is so great that it is impossible to overcome it in the coming years.

In recent years, the birth rate has slightly increased and the population decline has noticeably decreased, but so far there is no reason to believe that it will be possible to quickly overcome the crisis and stabilize the population. It will be difficult also because the age and sex structure of the population is severely deformed, which affects and will affect further on the reproduction of the population.

In a few years, the structural factors that gave us a small rise in the birth rate will exhaust themselves, and the next phase of the decline in the birth rate (a decrease in the annual number of births) will inevitably begin. Developing and improving demographic policy at the federal and regional levels, we need to have time to prepare in 3-4 years for a qualitative improvement in policy beyond 2012-2014, not limited to the indexation of benefits. If we do not do this, we will face another decline in fertility, deeper than in the late 1990s.

The persistence of the current trends in population reproduction (relatively low fertility and high mortality with a migration increase of 200-300 thousand people per year) may lead to the fact that the population of Russia by the beginning of 2025 may decrease to 135-139 million people.

The renowned American demographer and specialist in Russia Murray Feshbach believes that overcoming the demographic crisis in Russia “Will require huge efforts and investments from the state. What it is completely unprepared for .... There are many intelligent demographers in Russia, people who represent what the country will face. They must reach out to the authorities and convince them of the urgent need to take decisive action in many areas. "

With an active demographic policy and an improvement in the socio-economic situation of the country, one can expect a smaller decline, the scale of which will depend on the volume of replacement migration.

The concept of Russia's demographic policy for the period up to 2025 provides that at the third stage (2016-2025) “in due to a significant decrease by the beginning of the third stage in the number of women of reproductive age, it will be necessary to take additional measures to stimulate the birth of a second and third child in families ”.

The Russian authorities and the Russian society have realized the depth of the demographic crisis in which the country is now. Since 2006, the demographic problem (according to Solzhenitsin - a problem people saving) seen as the most important and acute problem of modern Russia.

Demographic statistics for 2006-10 talk about an increase in the number of births and life expectancy, as well as a decrease in mortality and natural population decline. But the fundamental assessment of the situation does not change: relatively favorable dynamics may persist for several more years, and then, according to most versions of forecasts made in recent years by Russian and international experts, the decline is likely to begin to increase.

In July 2010, online media reported on the forecast of a well-known American research organization Population Reference Bureau(PRB), which predicts a further decline in the population of Russia.

Deputy Prime Minister A.D. Zhukov on July 29, 2010, at a meeting of the Presidential Council for the Implementation of Priority National Projects and Demographic Policy, commented on these figures as follows: “Today I read a message that some American company, a fund, conducted a study that supposedly our population is expected to decline to 133 by 2025, and to 117 million in 2050. These are absolutely not based predictions. According to our strategy and the actions that are being taken, primarily within the framework of the national project, we must stabilize and begin to slowly increase our population. "

If you are not too lazy and look at the PRB website, then in the annually updated table of basic demographic data for all countries of the world in the row Russia in 2010 we will see completely different numbers: the population forecast for 2025 is 140.8 million, and for 2050 - 127.6 million. Moreover, we are far from the only ones who will face a population decline - here are Germany, Japan, and almost all Eastern European countries.

Where did the figures so outraged by the Deputy Prime Minister come from? In the previous, outdated version of the forecast (Table-2009), we actually find: for 2025 -133.3 million, and for 2050 - 116.9 million. Even more fear could be caught up with the 2008 version. There the forecast for 2025 is 129.3 million, and for 2050 - 110.1 million.

We see, comparing the versions of 2008, 2009 and 2010, that PRB specialists adjust their forecasts taking into account the latest trends in the growth of the birth rate, the decrease in mortality and the decline in the population of Russia. So they can and should be treated with great respect. Journalists are forgiven, but government analysts could provide more recent, high-quality and reliable information for the Deputy Prime Minister's report.

Similar forecasts were presented by our colleagues from a small and, alas, declining group of experts-demographers. Figures in projections for 2020, 2025 and 2030 different, but the conclusions and assessments are close.

The latest official forecast of Rosstat - the average, the most probable option - also assumes, albeit small, but a decrease in the population (2025 -140.9 million, almost like the PRB forecast -!). At the same time, the low option (forecast-warning) is based on the possibility of reducing the population to 132.7 million in 2025. Recall that the "Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025", adopted in October 2007, plans to increase the population up to 145 million people.

Regularly updated UN forecasts also do not give grounds for great optimism, although the latest versions of most of the forecasts have been adjusted towards some reduction in losses. Reduction of attrition, but, alas, not population growth.

So does our government understand the scale and threats of demographic changes? In words, yes. Her actions so far confirm this only to an insignificant extent. Additional measures were taken to stimulate the birth rate, the aforementioned concept was approved, but with targets that are more like a demographic dream.

Meanwhile, the number of births in the country is changing in waves (Fig. 1). There may be years when the increase in the number of births took place without any measures of demographic policy, and years of recession, when, no matter what we do, a decrease in the number of births cannot be avoided.

Drawing. 1. The number of births in Russia, 1946-2010

Understanding of these patterns on the upper echelons of power is far from always visible. For example, Deputy Prime Minister A.D. Zhukov recently promised By 2013 year, by compared with 2009, a decrease in mortality by 16.2% and an increase in the birth rate by 9.5% ”. It is not clear what this confidence is based on. Desire and political will is not enough for this.

After all, what is really going on? Now women are giving birth to children from multiple generations, born in the 1980s. Under the influence of new measures to stimulate the birth rate, the number of births of second and third children has also increased. The authorities consider this as an absolute proof of the victory of demographic policy and the result of effective investments in health care. It turns out that the optimist-politicians have put the skeptics-demographers to shame ?! After all, the birth rate has really grown, and the natural decline has decreased by more than 3 times.

But let's see how the birth rate has grown in recent years. The number of births in 2007 (the first year of implementation of the new measures) increased immediately by 8.8%, in 2008 - by 6.4%, in 2009 - by only 2.8%, and in 2010 ( preliminary data) - by 1.6%. It can be seen with the naked eye that the growth in the birth rate is "fizzling out." In a few years, an inevitable decrease in the number of births awaits us, by 2020-2025. - a demographic “hole” with a possible number of births of less than 1.2 million, since few generations born in the 1990s and early 2000s will have children.

What could be an adequate response of the state to demographic challenges? First of all, in our opinion, we need a clearly formulated system of state social guarantees, especially for young families. It is still possible to give birth to children, to receive a more or less normal allowance for a year and a half, and then what?

Now the state supports families with children very modestly. The more children there are in the family, the more poverty is, and this is, alas, an obvious fact for our society. "Maternal capital" does not fulfill its tasks, since there are still few opportunities to use it. He pushes for birth, but practically does not improve living conditions.

The national projects in the field of health care and the construction of affordable housing, adopted for implementation since 2006, have contributed to the creation of conditions for alleviating the demographic crisis, but the measures laid down in them are inadequate to the acuteness of the aggravating demographic problems.

Improving the demographic situation is impossible without a significant redistribution of resources in favor of the social sphere, without serious programs in the field of demographic policy, without large-scale costs for its implementation.

In the annual Address to the Federal Assembly, read out on November 30, 2010, the President of Russia said: “We tackled the demographic problem seriously and for a long time, but we must understand that in the next 15 years the consequences of the demographic decline of the 90s will affect, and the number of women of the so-called reproductive age will significantly decrease. And this is a serious threat, this is a challenge for our entire nation. " Let us illustrate this with the data of the average version of the forecast of Rosstat.

Table 4. Prospective number of women of reproductive age in Russia according to the forecast of Rosstat (medium variant; thousand)

Number of women aged (years)

Years

In fig. 2, this forecast appears more clearly:

Figure 2. Dynamics of the number of women of main reproductive ages

In general, the number of women aged 20-29 with the highest birth rate - about 90 births per 1000 women per year - will decline until 2023-24. (by 5.4 million people, or 55% of the 2010 population).

This will predetermine the inevitable and significant reduction in the number of births, since this age group in recent years accounts for about 64-65% of births. If now there are more than 1 million births at the age of 20-29, then by 2023 this number will decrease by about half a million (!) - while maintaining the current levels of age-specific fertility. And the age group 30-34 years old (its number will grow until 2018) will not compensate for this decline.

The answer to this challenge should be a comprehensive policy aimed at supporting families with children, especially young people and large families, to stimulate the birth rate. The measures outlined by the government include increasing the availability and quality of medical care for mothers and children, developing a birth certificate program, increasing funding for infertility treatment, including with the use of in vitro fertilization technologies, modernizing children's clinics and hospitals, etc.

According to the President, "The main way to overcome the demographic crisis is a radical increase in the number of families with three or more children." For this, the most favored nation treatment should be created for large families. The government has been instructed, together with the regions, to work out the procedure for providing free land plots for the construction of a residential house or summer cottage at the birth of a third and subsequent children. The leaders of all constituent entities of the Federation were asked to think about the regional "maternity capital", about other forms of support for large families. The tax deduction will be increased to 3 thousand rubles per month for each child, starting with the third. The government has been instructed to prepare measures to increase tax deductions for all families with children.

A very painful issue for young families was also raised - “About kindergartens, about places in kindergartens. Wherever I go, wherever I am, almost always during meetings with people I am asked this question. At the beginning of 2010, there were 1 million 684 thousand children in the queue for kindergartens. In this queue, people are often signed up, in fact, even before the birth of the child. "

According to the President, “Precisely because of the lack of kindergartens, young families often postpone the birth of children or are limited to one child.” In all regions, "To implement programs for the reconstruction of old and construction of new kindergartens, ... develop a system of non-state childcare institutions and family kindergartens, ... for children who do not attend kindergartens, it is necessary to create preschool groups in general education schools."

It is appropriate to recall that 4 years ago Dmitry Medvedev spoke about the need to increase the availability of preschool education: “In the 90s, unfortunately, in a number of regions we, in fact, squandered this fund. In many places it was either destroyed or sold to the side, and, of course, now our joint common task is to restore the capacity of preschool institutions. " Nevertheless, in the last 4 years, the number of preschool institutions continued to decline with an increase in the number of children and the load on working kindergartens (Table 5).

Table 5. Preschool educational institutions

Years

The number of preschool educational institutions - total, thous.

The number of children in preschool educational institutions - total, thousand people


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