POPULATION AND DYNAMICS
Demography(from Greek demos- people and grapho- I write) - the science of the patterns of population reproduction, which studies its size, natural growth, age and sex composition, etc.
The scientific theory of population considers the population participating in labor as the main productive force of society, the basis of all social production. Constantly interacting with nature (the geographical environment), the population plays an active role in its transformation. At the same time, the population also acts as the main consumer of all created material goods. That is why the population is one of the important factors in the development of each country, and of all mankind.
Table 1. Population of the planet since 1000
Table 2. Growth of world population in 1950-2001
| Year | Total, million people |
Annual growth, million people |
Year | Total, million people |
Annual growth, million people |
| 1950 | 2527 | 37 | 1981 | 4533 | 80 |
| 1955 | 2779 | 53 | 1982 | 4614 | 81 |
| 1960 | 3060 | 41 | 1983 | 4695 | 80 |
| 1965 | 3345 | 70 | 1984 | 4775 | 81 |
| 1966 | 3414 | 69 | 1985 | 4856 | 83 |
| 1967 | 3484 | 71 | 1986 | 4941 | 86 |
| 1968 | 3355 | 74 | 1987 | 5029 | 87 |
| 1969 | 3629 | 75 | 1988 | 5117 | 86 |
| 1970 | 3724 | 78 | 1989 | 5205 | 87 |
| 1971 | 3782 | 77 | 1990 | 5295 | 88 |
| 1972 | 3859 | 77 | 1991 | 5381 | 83 |
| 1973 | 3962 | 76 | 1992 | 5469 | 81 |
| 1974 | 4012 | 74 | 1993 | 5556 | 80 |
| 1975 | 4086 | 72 | 1994 | 5644 | 80 |
| 1976 | 4159 | 73 | 1995 | 5734 | 78 |
| 1977 | 4131 | 72 | 1996 | 5811 | 77 |
| 1978 | 4301 | 75 | 1997 | 5881 | 71 |
| 1979 | 4380 | 76 | 1998 | 5952 | 71 |
| 1980 | 4457 | 76 | 1999 | 6020 | 68 |
| 2000 | 6091 | 71 |
In 1987, the world population reached 5 million people, and already in 1999, on October 12, it exceeded 6 million people.
Table 3. World population by country groups.
Table 4. The share of certain groups of countries in the world population, world GDP and world exports of goods and services in 2000, in %
| world population | World GDP * | World export | |
| industrialized countries | 15,4 | 57,1 | 75,7 |
| G7 countries | 11,5 | 45,4 | 47,7 |
| EU | 6,2 | 20 | 36 |
| Developing countries | 77,9 | 37 | 20 |
| Africa | 12,3 | 3,2 | 2,1 |
| Asia | 57,1 | 25,5 | 13,4 |
| Latin America | 8,5 | 8,3 | 4,5 |
| Countries with economies in transition | 6,7 | 5,9 | 4,3 |
| CIS | 4,8 | 3,6 | 2,2 |
| CEE | 1,9 | 2,3 | 2,1 |
| Reference: | 6100 million people | 44550 billion dollars | $7650 billion |
| *According to purchasing power parity of currencies | |||
Table 5. Population of the largest countries of the world (million people).
| Countries | Number of inhabitants in 1990, million people |
Countries | Number of inhabitants in 2000, million people |
| China | 1120 | China | 1284 |
| India | 830 | India | 1010 |
| Soviet Union | 289 | USA | 281 |
| USA | 250 | Indonesia | 212 |
| Indonesia | 180 | Brazil | 170 |
| Brazil | 150 | Pakistan | 238,4 |
| Japan | 124 | Russia | 230,3 |
| Pakistan | 112 | Bangladesh | 196,1 |
| Bangladesh | 112 | Japan | 138,5 |
| Nigeria | 90 | Nigeria | 121,6 |
| Mexico | 86 | Mexico | 121,6 |
| Germany | 80 | Germany | 121,6 |
| Vietnam | 68 | Vietnam | 121,6 |
| Philippines | 60 | Philippines | 121,6 |
| Türkiye | 59 | Iran | 121,6 |
| Italy | 58 | Egypt | 121,6 |
| Thailand | 58 | Türkiye | 121,6 |
| Great Britain | 57 | Ethiopia | 121,6 |
| France | 56 | Thailand | 121,6 |
| Ukraine | 52 | France | 121,6 |
| Commentary to Table 21. At the beginning of the 21st century, Russia's population decreased to 144.1 million people. (data as of 10/01/2001), as a result of which she let Pakistan go ahead. | |||
Table 6. Forecast of the population of the Earth for 2025
| The whole world, regions |
Population size, million people |
The whole world, regions |
Population size, million people |
| The whole world | 7825 | Africa | 1300 |
| Economically developed countries |
1215 | North America | 365 |
| developing | 6610 | Latin America | 695 |
| CIS | 290 | Australia | 40 |
| Foreign Europe | 505 | ||
| Overseas Asia | 4630 |
Table 7. Forecast of the number of inhabitants in the twenty largest countries by population in the world for 2025
| Countries | Population size, million people |
Countries | Population size, million people |
| China | 1490 | Japan | 120 |
| India | 1330 | Ethiopia | 115 |
| USA | 325 | Vietnam | 110 |
| Indonesia | 275 | Philippines | 110 |
| Pakistan | 265 | Congo | 105 |
| Brazil | 220 | Iran | 95 |
| Nigeria | 185 | Egypt | 95 |
| Bangladesh | 180 | Türkiye | 88 |
| Russia | 138 | Germany | 80 |
| Mexico | 130 | Thailand | 73 |
GROWTH RATES
Population growth rate shows by what percentage the population has increased in the current year compared to some earlier period (most often the previous year, called the base year).
doubling time is the time it takes for the population to double.
Table 8. Growth rate (in %) and doubling time (in years) of the population.
| Period | World | Africa | Latin. America |
Sev. America |
Asia | Europe | Oceania | Former USSR |
| 1965-1970 | 2,06 | 2,64 | 2,6 | 1,13 | 2,44 | 0,66 | 1,97 | 1,00 |
| 1980-1995 | 1,74 | 2,99 | 2,06 | 0,82 | 1,87 | 0,25 | 1,48 | 0,78 |
| 2020-2025 | 0,99 | 1,90 | 1,12 | 0,34 | 0,89 | 0,05 | 0,76 | 0,47 |
| Time doubling |
71 | 27 | 38 | 63 | 50 | 253 | 63 | 99 |
Minimum doubling time: Brunei (11), Qatar (13), UAE (13).
Maximum doubling time: Bulgaria, Ireland, Hungary (1000 each),
Belgium, Poland, Falkland Islands, Puerto Rico (693 each).
As can be seen from the table, in different regions of the world, the population today is growing differently: in some more slowly, in others - faster, and in others - very quickly. This is due to the different nature of its reproduction.
POPULATION REPRODUCTION
Reproduction (natural movement) of the population- a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensures the continuous renewal and change of human generations. Or: the reproduction of the population is the process of generational change as a result of natural (growth) movement.
Key demographics
Absolute indicators:
- natural increase- the difference between the number of births and deaths;
- mechanical gain- the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants.
Relative:
- fertility rate- the ratio of the total number of births in the country per year to the total population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e. the number of births per thousand inhabitants;
- death rate- the ratio of the total number of deaths in the country for the year to the population of the country, measured in thousands (ie, the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants);
- rate of natural increase is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate.
These ratios are measured in ppm (‰), but can be measured as percentages (%), i.e. calculations in this case are carried out per 100 inhabitants.
"Formula" of reproduction- type of record of relative demographic indicators: birth rate - death rate = rate of natural increase.
Table 9. Demographic indicators of reproduction at the beginning of the 90s (in ‰).
Birth rate, mortality, natural population growth are basically biological processes. But, nevertheless, the socio-economic conditions of people's lives, as well as the relationships between them in society and in the family, have a decisive influence on them.
The mortality rate depends, first of all, on the material conditions of people's lives: nutrition, sanitary and hygienic conditions of work and life, on the development of healthcare.
The birth rate also depends on the socio-economic structure of society, on the living conditions of people. But this dependence is much more complex and controversial, causing a lot of controversy in science. Most scientists attribute the decline in the birth rate to the growth of cities and the spread of the urban lifestyle, which leads to an increasing involvement of women in industrial and social activities, an increase in the duration of children's education and a general increase in the "price of a child". Developed pension provision also leads to a decrease in the birth rate, because. the role of the child as a "walking pension" is reduced to nothing. On the contrary, the rural way of life contributes to a high birth rate, because. in rural areas, a child already from 9-10 years old is extra labor hands. In poor countries, where the social sphere is poorly developed, the child is the main breadwinner for elderly parents. A high birth rate is also characteristic of Muslim countries, where the traditions of large families are supported by religion.
A very large negative impact on the reproduction of the population is exerted by wars, primarily world wars, which lead to huge human losses, both as a result of direct hostilities, and as a result of the spread of hunger and disease, and the breaking of family ties.
The growth of such adverse phenomena as crime, industrial injuries, natural and man-made disasters, accidents, environmental degradation leads to an increase in mortality.
TYPES OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION
In the most simplified form, we can speak of two types of population reproduction.
The first type of population reproduction. demographic crisis. The first type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic "winter", modern or rational type of reproduction) is characterized by low birth rates, death rates and, accordingly, natural increase. It has become widespread primarily in economically developed countries, where the proportion of elderly and old people is growing all the time; this in itself lowers the birth rate and increases the death rate.
The decline in the birth rate in industrialized countries is usually associated with the spread of an urban lifestyle, in which children are a "burden" for parents. In industrial production, the service sector requires highly qualified personnel. The consequence of this is the need for long-term studies, lasting up to 21-23 years. The decision to give birth to a second or third child is strongly influenced by a woman's high involvement in the labor process, her desire to make a career, to be financially independent.
But even among the countries of the first type of population reproduction, three subgroups can be distinguished.
First, these are countries with an average annual natural population growth of 0.5-1% (or 5-10 people per 1000 inhabitants, or 5-10‰). In such countries, examples of which are the United States, Canada, Australia, a fairly significant increase in population is ensured.
This requires that approximately half of all families have two children, and half - three. Two children eventually "replace" their parents, and the third not only covers the loss from illnesses, accidents, etc. and "compensates" for the absence of offspring in the childless, but also provides a sufficient overall increase.
Secondly, these are countries with "zero" or close to it natural growth. Such an increase (for example, in Italy, Great Britain, Poland) no longer ensures an expanded reproduction of the population, which usually stabilizes at the achieved level.
Table 10 . European countries with negative natural population growth in 2000
|
Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
|
Spain |
Sweden |
||
|
Switzerland |
Romania |
||
|
Greece |
Hungary |
||
|
Austria |
Estonia |
||
|
Italy |
Latvia |
||
|
Czech |
Belarus |
||
|
Slovenia |
Russia |
||
|
Lithuania |
Bulgaria |
||
|
Germany |
Ukraine |
Thirdly, these are countries with a negative natural increase, i.e., those where the death rate exceeds the birth rate. As a result, the number of their inhabitants not only does not grow, but even decreases. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation(or demographic crisis).
It is most typical for Europe, where already a dozen countries (Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany, etc.) have a negative natural increase. Recently, Russia has become one of these countries.
The transition from a large family characteristic of old Russia to a small family took place in our country during the period of the existence of the Soviet Union. But in the 90s. First of all, with the emergence of a deep socio-economic crisis, a real "collapse" of indicators of natural population growth began.
In the 90s. as a result of a sharp decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, the population of Russia should have decreased by several million people. And only thanks to the massive influx of migrants from other CIS countries and the Baltic countries, which more than compensated for this decline by more than 1/3, the population decline turned out to be not so large. The birth rate in Russia (less than 9 people per 1000 inhabitants) and in the late 90s. remains one of the lowest in the world.
So, in general, the economically developed countries of the world (the average rate of their natural increase is 0.4‰) are characterized by the so-called "rational" or "modern" type of population reproduction, which basically corresponds to the urban image and high standard of living of their population. But this does not exclude the possibility that a number of European countries are experiencing a demographic crisis that has a negative effect or may affect their development.
The second type of population reproduction. "Population explosion". The second type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic "winter") is characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low mortality rates. It is typical primarily for developing countries.
Table 11. Developing countries with the highest natural population growth in 1995-2000
|
Countries |
Natural growth,%O |
Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
|
Yemen |
Benin |
||
|
Somalia |
Ghana |
||
|
Niger |
Liberia |
||
|
Mali |
Mauritania |
||
|
DR Congo |
Pakistan |
Tasks: 9 Tests: 1 |
Federal Agency for Education
GOU VPO
ALL-RUSSIAN CORRESPONDENCE
FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
Department of Finance, Budget and Insurance
TEST
Discipline:
"Economical geography"
Topic name:
"Population and labor resources of Russia"
Is done by a student:
Averyanova N.V.
Group No.
Student ID No.
Checked:
Krasnodar 2013
Control work plan
1. Introduction
2. Population value:
1.1. Population as the most important factor in the territorial organization of the economy
1.2. Influence of the population on the production specialization of the economy of the regions
1.3. Influence of the population on the location of branches of the economic complex
3. Change in the population of Russia:
1.4. Birth rate in Russia
1.5. Mortality in Russia
1.6. Natural increase in Russia
1.7. Causes of Vital Movement in Major Economic Regions
1.8. Characteristics of the modern structure of the population of the Russian Federation as a whole
4. The national composition of the population of Russia:
1.9. Placement of individual nations and nationalities on the territory of the Russian Federation
1.10. Modern problems of interethnic relations
5. Population density of the Russian Federation:
1.11. Factors affecting population density
1.12. Population density by federal districts
1.13. Modern migration processes of the population and their causes
6. Labor resources of the Russian Federation:
1.14. a brief description of
1.15. Placement of labor resources on the territory of the Russian Federation
1.16. The structure of employment of labor resources by industry
1.17. Formation of the labor market
1.18. Rising unemployment in the country and in certain regions
7. Conclusion
8. List of used literature
Introduction
The population is a set of generations of people who carry out their livelihoods in specific historical conditions in a certain territory. The most important feature of the population is its ability to both quantitative and qualitative reproduction. The population is able to preserve, develop and reproduce its various potentials: cultural, educational, working capacity, health, vitality, etc., as well as produce resources to support them.
The purpose of this work is to reveal the concept of the population, labor resources and the solution of problems associated with them. To achieve our goals, we will perform the following tasks:
1. give a description, give quantitative and qualitative indicators of the population of Russia;
2. consider the concept of "labor resources";
3. characterize the features of the reproduction of the population and resources for labor;
4. we will give indicators characterizing the use of labor resources;
5. Consider the assessment of the possibility of labor potential in the economy.
Population value
Despite the fact that today considerable attention in the economic sphere of Russia is paid to natural resources, the main factor in the development of production in any country is its population.
The number, structure and distribution of the population, considered in the process of social reproduction and interaction with the natural environment, studies the geography of the population. Recently, two directions can be traced in the geography of the population: geodemographic and geographical.
Geodemography is a science that studies the relationship between people living in a compact geographical area and the presence of certain similar demographic characteristics that distinguish them from those living in other places. The geographical direction explores the general geographical picture of the distribution of the population in the world, individual regions and countries.
The population is a complex set of people living within certain territories and operating in existing historical conditions. It affects the territorial organization of the economy, the production specialization of the economy of the regions and the location of the branches of the economic complex.
The territorial organization of the population studies the factors that determine the spatially and organizationally designed habitat, on which, under the influence of the territorial division of labor, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the life and reproduction of the population are concentrated.
Territorial organization should be understood as a system for managing the creation of necessary and sufficient conditions for the life of the population, ensuring sustainable rates of population reproduction, economic growth and intellectual potential in the territorial (regional) subsystems of the country, considered as parts of a single macroeconomic system.
The territorial organization as a subject of study cannot be considered in the abstract. It should always be "tied" both to a specific object located in a given territory, and to the integral territorial structure of the country.
The specialization of agriculture is influenced by the ratio between the urban and rural population. In addition, the population ensures the reproduction of labor resources for the industry.
Depending on the availability of labor resources (taking into account the labor skills of the population), one or another branch of agricultural production develops.
The most labor-intensive are the production of vegetables, potatoes, sugar beet and other industrial crops, and some branches of animal husbandry. The use of qualified specialists contributes to the growth of labor productivity, reducing labor costs for the production of these products.
Increased population migration in a number of regions currently limits the production of labor-intensive products. An important factor in the territorial organization of agricultural production is also the interests and needs of the local population, which in the past were not sufficiently taken into account.
2.3. Influence of the population on the location of branches of the economic complex
Population change in Russia
Under the reproduction of the population is understood the process of constant renewal of generations of people due to the interaction of fertility and mortality. There are three types of population reproduction: extended, when the number of births exceeds the number of deaths; idle, when there is no population growth; narrowed, when the death rate exceeds the birth rate, that is, there is an absolute reduction in the population.
Population reproduction has demographic, economic and social aspects. It determines the formation of labor resources, the development of territories, the state of productive forces, the development of social infrastructure, etc.
To characterize the reproduction of the population, indicators of fertility, mortality and natural increase are used. Birth and death rates are calculated per 1,000 people (in ppm) and are measured using the coefficients: N gender, N mind.
K p \u003d H cf 1000 and K c \u003d H cf 1000,
where K p and K c are the birth and death rates, respectively;
N clan - the number of births per year; Ch mind - the number of deaths per year;
H cf is the average annual population.
A significant contribution to the study of population problems was made by foreign researchers: the Italian economist A. Peccei, the Finnish scientist P. Kuusi, the American scientist J. Simon, and others; domestic scientists S.G. Strumilin, A.Ya. Boyarsky, B.Ts. Urlanis, D.I. Valentey and others. They showed that the development of the population is manifested in continuous quantitative and qualitative changes, that the population is a set rich in relationships that determine the existence of a system of laws of population, laws of varying degrees of generality that are interconnected with each other. At each stage of human development, both general and specific laws of population operate.
The size of the population, the direction and pace of its changes in themselves show little if it is not connected with the historical and socio-economic development of the country. It is impossible, for example, to assert that a high rate of population growth in all cases is good, and its fall is evil. It is necessary to analyze the level of social development, the socio-economic conditions of the life of the people and other phenomena and processes. Uncontrolled growth in the number of people in conditions of limited natural resources and the resulting effect of the economic law of diminishing returns is fraught with a drop in the standard of living of the population. Population decline - depopulation due to unfavorable political and socio-economic conditions - leads to a deterioration in opportunities for economic growth. Scientific and technological progress contributes to an increase in the production of material goods, an increase in labor productivity and limits the operation of the law of diminishing returns. Achievements in the field of medicine and public health objectively provide a reduction in mortality and an increase in life expectancy. The study of population and the changes taking place in it must be concrete and historical.
The growth rate of world population has steadily increased since the 18th century, reaching its peak of 2.1% per year in the 1960s. Then the growth rate began to decline, and by the mid-1980s. they averaged 1.7% per year, in 2000 - 1.4% with an absolute increase of 80-87 million people per year. Population growth in the world at the beginning of the XXI century. amounted to about 1.5% per year. According to the data given by academician SP. Kapitsa, every second 21 people are born and 18 people die in the world every second, almost the entire increase is in developing countries. More than 6 billion people currently live on Earth.
Modern Russia is going through a period of formation and development of market relations. The rejection of the administrative-volitional system of management, the quickly implemented, but insufficiently thought out, denationalization and privatization of property led to an excessive differentiation of incomes between the so-called oligarchs, bankers, top managers, some layers of officials and the main part of the population, whose standard of living has deteriorated. All this was reflected in the nature of changes in the size and composition of the population.
Over the past 20 years, the population of Russia has decreased by 3.7 million people, or 4.2%. In the same years, the ratio of the number of urban and rural populations stabilized, the former of which is 73%.
In proportion to the overall decline in the population, the number of men and women is declining, while the number of men is less than the number of women: there are 1,140 women per 1,000 men. The predominance of the female part of the population over the male is formed at the expense of the population of older ages. Under the age of 34, the male population predominates, albeit slightly. After the age of 35, the share of the female population begins to increase, it grows especially noticeably for women in the older age groups, and after 70 years, the number of women exceeds the number of men by more than 2.5 times. The disproportion in the number of sexes is due to the high mortality of men of working age, as well as the large losses of the male population during the Great Patriotic War and in subsequent wars. All this is reflected in the average age of men and women. The average age for women in 2000 was 39.6 and for men 34.7. The average life expectancy of men in Russia is less than that of women. Thus, the average life expectancy at birth in Russia in 2008 was 66.8 years, including 60.4 years for men and 73.2 years for women.
Demography - the science of population. The population of the world is the totality of people living on Earth. At present, the world population exceeds 7 billion people.
The population is constantly growing. Over the past 1000 years, the population on Earth has increased 20 times. At the time of Columbus, the population was only 500 million people. Currently, about every 24 seconds, one child is born and every 56 seconds, one person dies.
The study of population is carried out by demography - the science of the patterns of population reproduction, as well as the dependence of its character on socio-economic, natural conditions, migrations. Demography, along with the geography of the population, studies the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population, their changes, the causes and consequences of these changes, and gives recommendations for their improvement. Under the reproduction (natural movement) of the population is understood the continuous renewal of human generations as a result of the processes of fertility and mortality. The geographical features of the natural movement of the population are manifested in unequal rates of population growth in different regions and countries.
Modern demographic trends expressed in the rapid growth of the world population as a whole. At the same time, the rate of population growth is now slowing down. Particularly rapid population growth was noted in the second half of the 20th century, when its number increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 6 billion by 2000 (Fig. 27). happened demographicexplosion- rapid accelerated population growth in a relatively short period of time, especially in the second half of the 20th century. This happened as a result of a decrease in mortality at a too high birth rate. So, over the past 1000 years, the population on Earth has increased 20 times. Scientists suggest that population growth is slowing down and by 2050 the population will increase to only 9.5 billion people.
Population growth rates vary widely across major regions of the world. In regions dominated by economically developed countries (Europe, North America, Australia), the population is growing slowly, and in some European countries it is even declining.
It is assumed that the population of Germany will decrease from 82 million people in 2010 to 70.1 million in 2090, and will decrease from 125 million to 91 million people, or by 27.2%, over 100 years. The reason for this decline is the low birth rate.
In the regions of developing countries (Africa, Asia, Latin America), relatively rapid population growth is observed. High population growth rates in developing countries cause a number of problems: food shortages, low levels of medical care and literacy, land degradation due to their irrational use, etc.
The essence of demographic problems lies not so much in the high growth of the world's population as in the disproportion in the dynamics of growth in developed and developing countries.
Modern demographic processes are so acute that they require intervention in their development. Therefore, in a number of countries of the world, demographicwhat policy- a system of various measures taken by the state with the aim of influencing the natural movement of the population, and primarily on the birth rate, stimulating growth or reducing its number.
Demographic policy in China, India is aimed at reducing the birth rate and population growth. In the developed countries of Europe, on the contrary, they stimulate an increase in the birth rate of the population.
To solve the problem of population decline in Belarus, the state is taking measures aimed at increasing the birth rate in the country (material support for families raising two or more children, construction of affordable housing, etc.).
The concept of " quality of life of the population» - the degree of satisfaction of the material, spiritual and social needs of a person. The quality of life of the population is characterized by such indicators as average life expectancy, health status, level of education, cash income, housing, etc. In developed countries, the average life expectancy of people is increasing (about 80 years). This leads to an increase in the number of pensioners and an aging population.
The life expectancy of the world's population is 72 years for women and 68 years for men. The leaders are Japan and France, where life expectancy is over 80 years. In Belarus it is 72 years, in African countries (Zambia, Angola, Swaziland) - 45-50 years.
The age structure of the population, which affects the level of economic development, is closely related to life expectancy. The middle-aged population is the most able-bodied, it is responsible for the material support of the country, for providing the elderly with all the necessary benefits of life. (How is the labor supply problem being tackled in the European Union?) The elderly population has more than doubled in the last 50 years. Differences in the quality of life of the population exacerbate the instability of relations between countries and within them.
A significant part of the population of African countries, South, Southeast and East Asia, Central America suffers from hunger and malnutrition. Two-thirds of the world's population lives in areas where people are constantly short of food. Hence the high level of infant mortality, low life expectancy.
Differences in the quality of life of the population in different regions of the Earth today are one of the reasons for the migration of the population. The movement of people from one country to another, often in large groups and over long distances, occurs for economic, religious, national reasons, as well as as a result of wars, natural and environmental disasters. In search of work, people move mainly from developing countries to developed countries in Europe and North America (labor migration). In economically developed countries, such as Germany, Great Britain, France, etc., migration significantly replenishes the working-age population.
Recently, there has been an increase in illegal migration to countries with more favorable socio-economic conditions, an increase in forced migration due to armed conflicts and aggravation of interethnic relations, the departure of people with a high level of education to the United States, France, and Sweden.
The main modern migration flows are directed from the countries of North Africa, Eastern Europe to Western Europe, from the countries of Latin America and Southeast Asia - to the USA, from the countries of Central Asia - to Russia.
The main current demographic trends are the accelerated growth of the world population at the expense of less developed countries; differences in the quality of life of the population between developed and developing countries; influx of immigrants to developed countries. The essence of modern demographic problems lies in the territorial disproportion in the dynamics of population growth between the highly developed and developing countries of the world.
>>Geography: Population size and reproduction
Population size and reproduction
1. World population: very fast growth!
Geographers and demographers make extensive use of population census data in their work. Ever since the beginning of the 19th century. there were more than 2,000 such censuses in the world, which today in most developed countries are carried out every five or ten years. .
According to estimates by demographic statisticians, more than 100 billion people have been born on Earth in the entire history of mankind. But throughout most of this history population growth was slow, and acceleration came only in the period of modern and especially modern times. So, over the past millennium, the first doubling of the population took 600 years, for the second 250, for the third about 100, and for the fourth a little more than 40 years. This means that never before has the world population increased as rapidly as in the middle and second half of the 20th century! In 1950, it reached 2.5 billion, in 1980, 4.4 billion, and in 2006, 6.5 billion people. .
Example. If at the beginning of the twentieth century the absolute annual increase in the population of the Earth was 10 - 15 million, and in the middle of the century 40-50 million, then in the 80-90s of the twentieth century. it reached 80-85 million people, which exceeds the number of inhabitants in any European state, except Russia.
1 Ethnology ( ethnography, from Greek. ethpos tribe, people) is the science of the origin of peoples (ethnic groups), their characteristic features and the relationship between them, which are determined by ethnic processes.
2 Demography(from the Greek detos people and ggapho I write) the science of the patterns of population reproduction, studying its size, natural increase, age and sex composition, etc.
However, in different regions of the world, the population today is growing differently: in some slowly, in others faster, and in others very quickly. This is due to the different nature of its reproduction. (Exercise 1.)
2. The concept of population reproduction.
The scientific theory of population considers the population involved in labor like g the main productive force of society, the basis of all social production. Constantly interacting with nature (the geographical environment), the population plays an active role in its transformation. At the same time, the population, and each of you feels it for yourself, also acts as the main consumer of all created material goods. That's why number population is one of the important factors in the development of each country, and of all mankind.
In turn, population growth depends on the nature of its reproduction.
Under the reproduction (natural movement) of the population is understood the totality of the processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensure the continuous renewal and change of human generations.
Fertility, mortality, natural population growth are basically biological processes. But nevertheless, the socio-economic conditions of people's lives, as well as the relationship between them in society and in the family, have a decisive influence on them. .
The mortality rate depends primarily on the material conditions of people's lives: nutrition, sanitary and hygienic conditions of work and life, on the development health care. The birth rate also depends on the socio-economic structure of society, on the living conditions of people. But this dependence is much more complex and controversial, causing a lot of controversy in science. As a rule, as well-being and culture grow, women become more and more involved in industrial and social activities, the duration of children's education increases, and the “price of a child” generally increases, the birth rate decreases. But the growth of incomes can also serve as an incentive to increase it.
A very large negative impact on the reproduction of the population is exerted by wars, primarily world wars, which lead to huge human losses both as a result of direct military operations, and as a result of the spread of hunger and disease, and the breaking of family ties.
In the most simplified, generalized form, we can talk about two types of population reproduction.
3. The first type of population reproduction: the demographic crisis.
The first type of population reproduction is characterized by low birth rates, death rates and, accordingly, natural growth. It has become widespread primarily in economically developed countries, where the proportion of elderly and old people is constantly growing; this in itself reduces the birth rate and increases the death rate of the population.
However, in addition to the demographic factor, socio-economic reasons also play an important role, causing increased mortality from diseases, disorder in life, military conflicts, an increase in crime, industrial injuries, various natural and man-made disasters, accidents, as well as from deterioration in the quality of the environment. environment. But even among the countries of the first type of reproduction, three subgroups can be distinguished. First, these are countries with an average annual natural population growth of approximately 0.5% (or 5 people per 1,000 inhabitants, or 5%0). In such countries, examples of which are the United States, Canada, Australia, a fairly significant increase in population is ensured.
This requires that approximately half of all families have two children, and half three. Two children over time "replace" their parents, and the third not only covers the loss from illnesses, accidents, etc., and compensates for the lack of offspring among the childless. but also provides a sufficient overall increase.
Secondly, these are countries with zero natural growth or close to it. Such an increase no longer ensures an expanded reproduction of the population, which usually stabilizes at the achieved level.
Example. All countries of the second subgroup are in Europe. These are Belgium, Denmark, Portugal, Poland. Sweden. The population in these countries is no longer growing.
Thirdly, these are countries with a negative natural increase, i.e., those where the death rate exceeds the birth rate.
As a result, the number of their inhabitants not only does not grow, but even decreases. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation 1(or demographic crisis). It is most typical for Europe.
Example. At the beginning of the XXI century. In Europe, there were already 15 countries with negative natural population growth. Of the CIS countries, they include Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, in which the socio-economic crisis that occurred in the 90s affected the indicators of natural population growth. 20th century (see table 12 in "Appendices").
1 D e pop u l i qi i(from the French depopulatiop) a decrease in the population of a country, region as a result of narrowed reproduction, leading to its absolute loss.
The transition from a large family characteristic of old Russia to a small family took place in our country during the period of the existence of the Soviet Union. But in the 90s. 20th century First of all, with the emergence of a deep socio-economic crisis, a real “collapse)) of natural population growth began. The birth rate in Russia (10.4 people per 1000 inhabitants) and at the beginning of the XXI century. remains very low.
Until relatively recently, the type of population reproduction that has developed in economically developed countries was often called rational. However, in the first half of the 90s of the twentieth century. its indicator dropped to 2% 0, and at the beginning of the XXI century. actually became zero. At the same time, many European countries have already entered the demographic crisis which adversely affects or may affect their entire development in the future.
4. The second type of population reproduction: population explosion.
For in topogo type of reproduction The population is characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low mortality rates. It is typical primarily for developing countries.
After gaining independence, these countries were able to make wider use of the achievements of modern medicine, sanitation and hygiene, primarily to combat epidemic diseases. This led to a rather sharp reduction in mortality. The birth rate, for the most part, remained at a high level.
Of course, this is largely due to the persistence of millennial traditions of early marriages and large families. . The average family size is now 6 people; as a rule, this is a three-generation family (parents, their children and grandchildren). In addition, it remains the main means of maintaining a living wage, and children continue to serve as the main support of parents in old age. Yes, and infant mortality in these countries is still significant. Factors such as the predominance of the rural population, the insufficient level of education, and the weak involvement of women in production continue to affect.
At the beginning of the XXI century. the average annual rate of natural growth in developing countries was 1.6%, that is, it was 16 times higher than in economically developed countries!
But even against this background, the least developed countries stand out, where 800 million people live, or more than 1/10 of the world's population. They are distinguished by the highest birth rates and natural growth (2.4%); that is why it is among them that one should look for “world record holders”.
You will find “record holders” in terms of average annual population growth among the countries of Tropical Africa and Southwest Asia. . (Task 2.)
Such a phenomenon of rapid population growth in countries of the second type of reproduction in the middle of the twentieth century. received a figurative name in the literature population explosion. Today, these countries (together with China) account for more than 4/5 of the total population of the planet and more than 95% of its annual growth. This means that out of 130 million children born each year, 124 million are born in developing countries. Including the population of Asia annually increases by about 40 million people, Africa by almost 30 million, Latin America by more than 9 million.
If in 1900 of the 15 largest countries in the world by number of inhabitants seven were in Europe, five in Asia and three in America, then in 2005 only two European countries (Germany and Russia) remained on this list, but there were eight Asian ones (China, India , Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines), as well as three American (USA, Brazil, Mexico), two African (Nigeria, Egypt) (see table 14 in the "Appendices").
Along with this, it is impossible not to pay attention to the fact that in some more "advanced" developing countries, a rather noticeable decrease in the rate of natural population growth has already begun. Examples of this kind are Brazil, India, Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia. And China, Argentina, Chile, Sri Lanka, Thailand have actually moved into the group of countries of the first type of reproduction.
Nevertheless, developing countries have and will continue to have a decisive influence on the size and reproduction of the population, primarily determining the demographic situation throughout the world.(Creative task 3.)
5. Demographic policy management of population reproduction.
Nowadays, most countries of the world seek to manage the reproduction of the population by conducting a state demographic policy.
Demographic policy is a system of administrative, economic, propaganda and other measures by which the state influences the natural movement of the population (primarily the birth rate) in the desired direction. It is clear that the direction of demographic policy depends primarily on the demographic situation in a particular country.
In countries of the first type of population reproduction, demographic policy is predominant, aimed at increasing the birth rate and natural population growth. It is carried out mainly with the help of various stimulating economic measures, such as one-time loans to newlyweds, benefits for the birth of each child, monthly allowances for children, paid holidays, etc. France, Japan, and Russia can serve as examples of countries pursuing an active demographic policy.
Most of the countries of the second type of reproduction in recent decades began to implement a demographic policy aimed at reducing the birth rate and natural population growth. Perhaps the greatest efforts in this regard are being made by the two largest countries in the world, China and India.
Example 1 The Chinese Constitution states that spouses must carry out planned childbearing. A committee on planned childbearing has been created, and permission from local authorities must be obtained for the birth of a child. A later age for marriage has been established. During the period of study at the institute, marriages, as a rule, are not allowed. The main motto of the demographic policy of the People's Republic of China is: "One family - one child." The implementation of this policy has already yielded results.
Example 2 India was the first developing country to adopt a national family planning program as an official government policy back in 1951. The age of marriage was significantly raised, mass voluntary sterilization of the population is carried out, a family of four is promoted under the motto: "We are two - we are two." As a result of these measures, the birth rate and natural increase decreased somewhat, but nevertheless, almost 1/5 of all newborns in the world are children born in India.
However, many difficulties arise in the way of implementing demographic policy, not only financial and economic, but also moral and ethical. In the 90s of the twentieth century. Especially great discussions were caused by the question of the right of a woman to terminate a pregnancy, which the Catholic Church sharply opposed. . Many Muslim Arab countries, especially in Southwest Asia, for reasons of religious morality generally reject any "family planning" measures. No demographic policy is pursued by most of the least developed countries of Tropical Africa.
6. Theory of demographic transition.
An important scientific basis for conducting demographic policy is the theory demographic transition, which explains the sequence of changes in demographic processes. The scheme of such a transition itself includes four successive stages.
For first stage, which covered almost the entire history of mankind, were characterized by very high birth and death rates and, accordingly, very low natural increase; now it is almost never seen.
Second phase characterized by a sharp reduction in mortality (thanks primarily to the successes of medicine) while maintaining the traditional high birth rate. This "fork" between the first and second indicators became the initial cause of the population explosion.
The third stage is characterized by the persistence of low mortality rates (and sometimes even their slight increase associated with the “aging” of the population). The birth rate is also declining, but usually still slightly exceeds the death rate, ensuring a moderate expanded reproduction and population growth.
When moving to fourth stage birth and death rates are the same. This means a transition to population stabilization. (Task 4.)
7. The quality of the population as a new complex concept.
Recently, in science and practice, indicators that characterize not only the quantity but also the quality of the population have become increasingly important. This is a complex, complex concept that takes into account economic (employment, per capita income, caloric intake), social (level of health care, security of citizens, development of democratic institutions), cultural (literacy level, provision of cultural institutions, printed products), environmental (environmental state) and other living conditions.
Recently, the UN and other international organizations, when determining the quality of a country's population, have focused on the state of its health, which, in turn, largely depends on the level of health care and the general standard of living. In the second half of the twentieth century. notable progress has been made in this respect, including in developing countries. However, many problems still remain unresolved.
Example. The world average infant mortality rate is 55 children per 1,000 live births. In economically developed countries, it is only 8 children, while in developing countries it is 60, and in the least developed 100. Moreover, in Africa and Asia there are still countries where this figure reaches 150-160 (Liberia, Niger, Sierra Leone, Afghanistan ).
Another important generalizing criterion for the state of health of a nation is the indicator life expectancy 1 . At the beginning of the XXI century. it averages 66 years for the whole world (64 years for men AND 68 years for women). The corresponding figures for economically developed countries are 72 and 80, for developing countries 62 and 66, including 51 and 53 for the least developed countries.
Example 1 The highest average life expectancy in the world in Japan is 82 years (men 79, women 86). Sweden, Iceland, Spain, Canada have almost the same figures (see Table 15 of the Appendix).
Example 2 The lowest average life expectancy in the world is in the African countries of Zambia and Sierra Leone (32-34 years). Similar indicators are slightly higher for some other countries of Tropical Africa (see table 15 of the "Appendices").
1 Average life expectancy - life expectancy of the population, which is determined using calculations based on the theory of probability. It depends both on biological, hereditary characteristics, and on the conditions of nutrition, work, life. Measured in years.
Average life expectancy in Russia in the 90s. decreased under the influence of the socio-economic crisis, amounting to about 65.3 years in 2005 (59 years for men and 72 years for women). By the way, there is no such a huge gap between the indicators of both sexes in any other country in the world.
Another important indicator of the quality of the population is the level of literacy. In economically developed countries, illiteracy has actually been completely or almost completely eliminated. But in the developing countries, in spite of the recent progress, the level of education in general is still quite low, especially among the rural inhabitants.
Example. In Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, more than 80% of all residents are illiterate, in Somalia more than 70%, in Senegal, Liberia, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Bangladesh more than 50%.
According to the UN, in 1990 about 960 million people could neither read nor write. Since then, with the ongoing population explosion, the total number of illiterates has fallen by 150 million. The absolute number of illiterate people is particularly high in South and East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In South Asia, illiterates make up about half of the total population.
The state and development of society are largely determined by the size and composition of the population. The population is characterized both as an element of the productive forces and as the bearer of production relations. It also has self-reproduction.
Population- this is a naturally historically formed and continuously renewed in the process of production and reproduction of life, a set of people living in a certain territory - in a village, city, district, region, country.
Human Resources- this is the able-bodied part of the population, which, having physical and intellectual capabilities, is able to produce material goods or provide services.
From this definition it follows that labor resources include, on the one hand, people engaged in economic activity (in various industries), and on the other hand, not employed, but who can work. Thus, the labor force consists of actual and potential workers.
The necessary physical and intellectual abilities depend on age: in the early period of a person’s life and at the time of maturity, they are formed and multiplied, and lost by old age. Age acts as a kind of criterion that makes it possible to single out the actual labor resources from the entire population.
The population is all people, regardless of their characteristics, that is, this is the broadest concept for referring to human resources. Often in the same sense in the socio-economic literature, the concept of "population" is used.
At the same time, the population is the source, the “material” from which all other groupings of people are obtained (for example, those that are designated in labor economics as the economically active population, labor resources). Therefore, the study of the size, composition and dynamics of the population (this is the subject of study of the science of demography) is also extremely important for labor economics. Economists consider the population as a source of resources for labor, as a carrier of certain economic relations, and, very importantly, as a consumer who creates demand.
The population of Ukraine is constantly declining (by about 0.4 million annually since 1994). This reduction is caused, on the one hand, by a decrease in the number of births and an increase in the number of deaths (the annual natural decrease in the population has exceeded 300 thousand people in recent years, and on the other hand, by a negative balance of external migration (almost 100 thousand people annually). These two reasons have led to a strong decrease in the population of Ukraine over the past decade An alarming indicator in the dynamics of the population is an increase in the number of people of retirement age and a corresponding decrease in the number of young people, which shows the aging of the population and reduces the source of resources for work.
Migration, social and economic movements of the population are interdependent and interconnected. Together, they determine the size and qualitative characteristics of the population.
In the natural movement of the population, there are types of reproduction: traditional (extensive) and modern (intensive).
Traditional type of reproduction It is characterized by a high unregulated birth rate and high mortality (due to the underdevelopment of medicine, low living standards, wars, epidemics). As a result of the interaction of these factors, the overall population growth rate is low, and the share of young people prevails in the structure. This type is characteristic of the early stages of the development of human society.
Modern type of reproduction due to socio-economic development, rising living standards, advances in medicine, the emancipation and involvement of women in economic activity, and other reasons, as a result of which the birth rate has sharply decreased, life expectancy has significantly increased, the death rate has decreased, and the number of older people in the population structure has increased .
Distinguish three playback modes population: extended, simple, narrowed.
Extended reproduction characterized by a predominance of births over deaths (both in absolute terms and per 1,000 people) and, accordingly, natural population growth.
Simple reproduction means a constant population as a result of approximately the same birth and death rates.
Constricted reproduction, or depopulation, is typical for countries in which death rates exceed birth rates, resulting in an absolute decrease in the number of population, which is what we are seeing now in Ukraine.
Features of the historical development of Ukraine have strongly influenced the dynamics of the entire population, and in particular the labor force. In the 20th century, the life of all generations and almost every person was alarmed and worsened by severe dramatic events (World War I and II and civil wars, industrialization, collectivization, famines, mass repressions, participation in military conflicts (in particular, in Afghanistan), the Chernobyl tragedy, deep crisis of the 1990s). As a result, not only thousands and even millions of young healthy people died or became disabled, but the birth rate sharply decreased, and the sex and age structure of the population was deformed. Therefore, the reproduction of the population and labor resources for work in Ukraine did not occur evenly, but “wave-like”: certain rises are changed by deep falls.
Reproduction of labor resources- This is a process of constant and uninterrupted renewal of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the economically active population.
Since labor resources are part of the population, the reproduction of labor resources also reflects the state and nature of the reproduction of the population as part of the whole. The dynamics of the total population determines the dynamics of the economically active population, but this dependence is not simple. That is, an increase (decrease) in the population leads to an increase (decrease) in the number of the working population only under otherwise identical conditions, and in real life, under the influence of various reasons, these changes do not occur simultaneously and on the same scale.
For example, the birth of children increases the population immediately, and the number of labor resources - only after 15-20 years, and then on the condition that these people become economically active. The death rate of disabled people reduces the population, but does not change the resources for labor. With a constant population, labor resources can significantly increase (decrease) due to an increase (decrease) in the labor activity of the population, for example, due to changes in living standards.
In the reproduction of labor resources, as in the reproduction of the entire population, there are types of movement, types and modes.
The natural, migration and economic movement of the population affect the quantitative characteristics of labor resources, while the social movement affects the qualitative ones. Each type of movement is determined by the action of many different causes, and their interaction and interdependence determine the number of economically active population, which is a fundamental indicator for any society or state. Therefore, it is important to analyze the impact on the dynamics of the economically active (labor-active) population of any of these factors separately.
The types of reproduction of labor resources compared with the types of reproduction of the population have different semantic meanings. An extensive type of reproduction is associated with a change in the quality of human resources: an increase in the educational level, qualifications, improved health, mental abilities, etc., which means an increase in labor potential.
Thus, population reproduction has not only demographic, but also economic and social aspects. It determines the formation of labor resources, the development of territories, the state of productive forces, the development of social infrastructure, etc.
The population and labor resources have quantitative and qualitative parameters necessary for the analysis and evaluation of demographic processes, the development of a strategy in the field of labor resources management. To characterize the reproduction of the population, indicators of fertility, mortality and natural increase are used.
The difference between the number of births and deaths with a positive result is called natural population growth.
The average annual population is determined for the middle of the year as the arithmetic average of the population at the beginning and end of the year, or by adding half of its growth to the initial population.
The size and composition of the population in all countries of the world are determined using censuses. The last census in our country took place in 2001. Its main data were published and became the basis for obtaining demographic data in the subsequent period. Censuses provide the most accurate population data.
Population forecasting is very important. Forecast calculations make it possible to identify expected changes in the population, assess the demographic situation that is developing both in individual regions and in the country as a whole, determine the number of labor resources, changes in their educational and vocational level, and trace the impact of other socio-economic and environmental factors on reproductive process.
According to the classification of the International Labor Organization (ILO), the population over a certain minimum age established for accounting for the economically active population (in Ukraine - 16 years) is divided into three categories: employed, unemployed and outside the labor force. Employed and unemployed make up the labor force or population active in a given period. Persons outside the labor force include residual groups who are unemployed, not looking for a job and not ready to work, including those under working age. This group represents the population that is currently economically inactive.
Separation according to the ILO methodology
