The concept and general principles of demographic analysis, its stages and basic methods. Types of sources of information about the population and demographic processes. Population censuses, basic principles of their conduct and information capabilities. Current vital statistics. Anamnestic method, sample sociological and demographic surveys, the study of public opinion as sources of demographic information.

Analysis of population dynamics, main indicators of dynamics. Types of demographic structures. Age-sex pyramid.

General and specific (age-specific) demographic coefficients: concept, types, calculation methods.

Indicators of the population reproduction regime: types and methods of calculation, dimension and analytical capabilities.

Dynamics of demographic statistics for our country and individual regions and countries of the world.

BASIC CONCEPTS: principles of demographic analysis; primary and secondary demographic information; census; current accounting; lists; registers; qualifications; audits; anamnestic method; population dynamics indicators; general and private demographic coefficients; reproduction mode; expanded, narrowed and simple reproduction; demographic structures; age-sex population pyramid.

TOPIC 4. DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN RUSSIA: ORIGINS, CURRENT STATE, WAYS OF OPTIMIZATION

The concept and essence of the demographic situation, its socio-economic and demographic conditionality. Demographic factors of socio-economic development (economic growth, business, formation of the labor market, poverty and income differentiation, etc.).

The current demographic situation in Russia, economically developed and developing countries of the world. Global demographic problems. Efforts of the international community and the UN to solve demographic problems.

Regional specifics of the demographic situation in Russia. Development trends and prospects for changes in the demographic situation in the regions. Regional features of demographic development. Migration processes in the regions. Regional types of geodemographic situation and trends in its change.

Features of the demographic situation in the Southern and North Caucasus territorial districts, in the Volgograd region (fertility and mortality, migration flows, regional demographic policy).

BASIC CONCEPTS: demographic situation; depopulation; narrowed type of population reproduction; population quality; demographic factors of economic growth; regional differentiation; geodemographic situation; types of demographic situation in the regions.

According to Goskomstat calculations, the current population of Russia at the beginning of 2001 was 145,184.8 thousand people and decreased by 740.1 thousand in 2000. Thus, in 2001, the population decline in Russia decreased slightly, which was due to an increase in migration growth by 59 thousand people, while natural growth decreased, but only by 30.7 thousand.

Table. 9

The country's population began to decline in 1992. Over the 9 years from 1992 to 2002, it decreased by 3519.5 thousand people, including in 2002 - by 740.1 thousand people. Due to its internal conditioning, the trend of population decline is quite stable.

The age structure of the population plays an active role in demographic processes.

The age structure accumulates and stores a reserve of demographic inertia, the potential for population growth, due to which the population movement continues long after the driving forces of this movement have already dried up or changed their direction to the opposite. Therefore, the influence of the age structure is always taken into account when analyzing the dynamics of demographic processes.

Throughout the twentieth century. Russia's population is declining for the fourth time. But unlike the first three periods - the First World War and the Civil War, the famine and repression of the 30s, the Second World War - when population decline was due to non-demographic factors, in the 90s it was predetermined by the very course of demographic development. It was predicted by demographers for the end of the outgoing century. The system-wide crisis that unfolded during the transition period only accelerated and aggravated the implementation of long-standing forecasts. Although the population decline is not yet as great and catastrophic as in the previous three periods, this trend, due to its internal conditioning, is stable and, most likely, will continue in the near future.

The general trend of changes in the age structure of the population of all countries as the birth rate decreases and average life expectancy increases is a steady increase in the age structure of the proportion of the population of older ages. This process is called demographic aging of the population.

The population decline was mainly due to natural decline, i.e. the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births (about 7 million people in 1992-2000), as well as due to emigration to “far abroad” countries (about 850 thousand people). However, the actual population reduction was almost three times less due to a fairly significant migration influx from the CIS and Baltic countries.

The natural population decline in Russia is due to the population reproduction regime with low mortality and birth rates that developed in Russia by the 60s and which even earlier became characteristic of most developed countries. For some time, natural increase still remained relatively high - mainly due to the favorable age structure of the population, in which some potential for demographic growth had been “accumulated”. But as this potential was exhausted, natural growth began to decline

Yet, until the 90s, it was a determining component of Russian population growth. For a long time, it was even combined with the migration outflow from Russia, more than covering this decline. Since 1975, population growth has occurred both due to natural growth and due to the migration influx from the Union republics, which, as a rule, did not exceed 1/4 of the total growth. But then the role of the migration component changed dramatically - at first its contribution to population growth simply increased, and since 1992, when natural population decline began, migration remained the only source of population growth. However, even the volumes of net migration that increased after the collapse of the USSR could not cover the natural decline of Russians; in recent years, net migration has also been declining.

Let's look graphically at how much migration population growth compensates for natural decline since 1992:

Table 10.

Migration growth of the country's population in January-August 2002. compensated for natural decline by only 5.1%. (In 2000, the natural population decline was compensated by 21.6% by the increased migration growth of the country's population, in 1999 - by 16.7%). This is the lowest figure for the entire period of population decline since 1992. to 2001. This ratio, despite the decrease in natural decline, was the result of a significant (compared to January-August 2000) reduction in migration growth.

Since 1992, the mortality rate in Russia has exceeded the birth rate, and depopulation began, i.e., a decrease in the number of the indigenous population. Its emergence occurred spasmodically, like an epidemic.

The natural population decline was greatest in 1994, then, in general, its level was quite stable - 0.5-0.6% per year until 1999. Fluctuations in migration growth were more significant, and they caused fluctuations in the overall population decline. In 1999, society responded to the August financial crisis with a sharp rise in mortality.

Dynamics of demographic indicators in Russia (per 1000 people):

The maximum rate of decline in the birth rate occurred in 1987 - 1993. During this time, the number of new residents born annually has decreased by almost half. If in 1986 there were 17.2 per 1000 population, then in 1993 - 9.2, and in 2000 - 8.8 ppm (Table 5). As a result, Russia lost more than 12 million citizens unborn. A decline in childbearing activity was observed in women of all reproductive ages.

The total fertility rate, i.e. the number of children per woman aged 15 - 49 years, fell critically from 2.2 in 1986 - 1987. to 1.2 in 2000

The decrease in the birth rate over six years by almost 30% occurred for two main reasons: a) - in the early 90s, the number of women of fertile age decreased, who became “children of war children”; b) - today two thirds of families refuse to have children for financial reasons, postponing their appearance (and thereby changing the “timing” of births) or generally preferring childlessness. Over 10 years (1987-1997), the absolute number of births decreased by almost half: from 2.5 to 1.26 million per year.

The decline in the birth rate is becoming extremely dangerous for Russia. Firstly, the internal potential of demographic reproduction has been exhausted. After all, to replace generations of parents, you need a fertility level measured by a total fertility rate of at least 2.1, and today it is only 1.26. Secondly, the population and workforce are aging, people's health is declining, and the one-child family is becoming dominant.

However, the main factor in natural decline is the exorbitant increase in mortality. Over the past six years, the overall mortality rate has increased by more than 20% (from 11.4% in 1991 to 14.2% in 2002). It became the tallest in Europe. The inertial reasons for the increase in mortality are very insignificant, and this is evidenced by the dynamics of age-specific mortality rates. It shows that, contrary to natural processes, more young people die today than old people. Thus, during the period from 1991 to 2002, the overall mortality rate did not increase for groups under the age of 15 years; among the elderly, its increase was 1.1, and among working ages it reached 1.4. Moreover, among young people (20-25 years old) and in the most effective working ages (45-49 years old), mortality increased by 1.5 times.

These shifts are largely associated with the exacerbation of “external causes” of mortality (accidents, poisoning, injuries, murders and suicides). Over the past 30 years, this figure has increased 30 times.

Thus, today the mortality rate in Russia is characterized by the following features:

• · excess mortality of men. In 2002, their life expectancy was 59.6 years (in 1994 - 57.6 years, in 1995 - 58.3 years), which is 13.1 years less than for women and 3.9 years less than in 1991. 1997 - 60.8 years for men, 72.9 years for women.
• · a drop in the average life expectancy of men aged 35 years and older: in rural areas it is lower than it was 100 years ago, in the city it is lower than 40 years ago;
• · increased growth rates of mortality in working ages, as a result of which we are intensively losing labor potential. The able-bodied part of the population is dying out to a greater extent, which contradicts biological laws;
• · extremely high infant mortality rate compared to other developed countries. Since 1990, this figure has been increasing: in 1991 it reached 17.4%, in 1992 - 18.0%, in 1993 - almost 20%. Then it began to slowly decline, amounting to 16.9% in 2002

• 1. The mortality rate of Russians is increasing, and its level has significantly exceeded those of developed countries
• 2. The greatest increase in mortality occurred not in the older, but in the middle, most capable age groups. This leads to a generation gap and degradation of the social structure of society.
• 3. The birth rate is declining not evolutionarily, but in the form of an epidemic, suddenly replacing the previous upward trajectory. The total fertility rate turned out to be less than Western European and American indicators. The increasing predominance of mortality over the birth rate led to intensive extinction of the population, which does not correspond to the concept of the norm of human development.
• 4. The gap between the life expectancy of men and women has worsened, due to which Russian women were doomed to 10-15 years of widowhood.

2.1 Analysis of demographic development in the world

Population reproduction is the process of generational change as a result of natural population movement. To characterize the size and reproduction of the population, many demographic indicators are used, but the main ones are fertility rates, mortality rates (the number of births or deaths in 1 year per 1 thousand inhabitants) and natural increase. Their value is expressed in %o (ppm), i.e. in thousandths.

Throughout history, the population of our planet has grown very slowly (Fig. 1). According to available estimates, it hardly increased until about the middle of the second millennium AD. Back in the 18th century. Enlightened people in Europe argued whether the population of Europe was growing or decreasing, but they knew nothing at all about the planet as a whole. But, starting around the end of the 18th century, the first signs of accelerated population growth appeared, which after some time became explosive. The point on the graph is 1900 - the beginning of the twentieth century. - when this rise became very noticeable. This began the now famous demographic explosion.

Figure 1. World population growth over 2500 years, million people

The data in the following figure refers to the period from the mid-18th century, for which more or less reliable data is already available. The top line is the entire population of the planet, its different parts growing unevenly. Starting at some point, Europe and other regions inhabited by immigrants from Europe - North America, Oceania - began to yield to all other regions of the world in terms of population growth.

In the modern world, we can roughly distinguish two main types of population reproduction. One of them is characterized by average and even low birth rates and low death rates and a slowdown or stabilization of population growth rates ("demographic winter"). It is typical for economically developed countries of the world.

Figure 2. World population growth between 1750 and 2000, million people

Another type of population reproduction is characterized by a very high birth rate, a decrease in mortality and, accordingly, high rates of population growth (“demographic spring”). The second type of reproduction is characterized by the concept of a demographic explosion; in this case, the state takes measures to reduce population growth, i.e. Family planning policies are being implemented to reduce the birth rate.

The third figure shows the world population forecast until the middle of this century. UN experts make this forecast every two years; the graph shows its latest version, made in 2006. The forecast was made in three versions. The “upper” option envisages continued growth and an increase in the population to approximately 10.5-11 billion people by mid-century. (The world population at the beginning of the twentieth century, when the demographic explosion began to gain strength, was only 1.6 billion people. In the middle of the century it was already 2.5 billion. By the end of the century, the world population reached 6.5 billion, and growth continues Thus, in just a hundred years, 5 billion people were added to the Earth, while the demographic total of human history by the beginning of the twentieth century was only 1.5-1.6 billion people.

Figure 3. World population until 2050 according to three versions of the 2006 UN forecast, million people

The top version of the forecast assumes continuous growth: by mid-century, the world population will exceed 10.5 billion people and will continue to increase at the same rate. According to the average option, by the middle of the century there will be more than 9 billion people, growth will also not stop, but will still slow down noticeably. And only the lower option envisages not only a slowdown in growth until the middle of the century, but its cessation, and then the beginning of a decline in the world population.

Several years ago, UN experts developed an ultra-long-term forecast - for 300 years (Fig. 4). Here, too, there are three options, one of which, as in the previous case, provides for continuous growth, and this growth will lead to the fact that the planet's population will reach 35 billion people in 300 years. There is a middle option, which involves stabilizing the population at approximately 7-8 billion people. And there is a lower option, according to which in the middle of this century the world population should begin to decline, which in 300 years will return approximately to the level of the mid-twentieth century, i.e. to a population of 2-3 billion people.

Figure 4. World population up to 2300 according to three versions of the 2006 UN forecast, billion people

In addition to the fact that the population of the Earth as a whole is growing, it is also very important that it is growing unevenly. The population of the so-called developing world, Asia, Africa and Latin America is increasing. And the population of developed countries, the notorious “golden billion”, which includes Russia, is now almost not growing, and in some countries is even declining. As a result, a very large demographic asymmetry has arisen on the planet, which will increase. The populations of Asia and Africa will grow particularly rapidly, and their share in the planet’s population will accordingly increase (Fig. 5).

In Fig. Figure 6 shows how attitudes between the developed and developing world are changing. The share of countries in the developed world at the beginning of the twentieth century. was not very high, approximately 30% of the world's population. But, as you know, these countries surpassed the rest of the world in economic and military power. This is still the case, but the situation is beginning to change, and at the same time the demographic weight of developed countries is falling, the share of their population is rapidly declining. In 2000, they (or perhaps we should say) “weighed” less than 20%, and by 2050 this share will drop below 15%.

Figure 5. Population of the world, developed and developing countries until 2050 according to three versions of the 2006 UN forecast, million people

Figure 6. Population share of current developed and developing countries in 1900, 1950, 2000 and 2050

In Fig. Figure 7 shows another manifestation of the uneven distribution and growth of the Earth's population. In 2050, over 5 billion people—the number of people living on the entire planet just recently—will live in Asia. This is 60% of the world population in 2050.

Figure 7. 60% of the world's population will live in Asia

This is the case with the global context, against the background of which we must understand how demographic development is taking place in Russia.

Analysis of demographic development in the world

Among the factors influencing the nature of demographic development, two groups are distinguished. The first group is formed by objective factors: established traditions, the state of the international situation, the consequences of wars...

Analysis of demographic development in the world

Analysis of demographic development in the world

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Demographic situation in the Nizhny Novgorod region

The predicted demographic development is based on the optimistic socio-demographic development of the Nizhny Novgorod region, as well as changes in population reproduction processes for the better. Supposed...

Demographic transition

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Demographic transition in Russia

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Prospects for demographic development of Russia

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Priorities of demographic development of Russia at the present stage

Modern demographic problems of Russia

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State and trends of demographic indicators and their regional characteristics

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Territorial organization of the population

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When studying demographic processes, it is necessary, first of all, to answer the following questions: 1) What are the patterns of changes in the nature of each of the demographic processes? For example, what are the patterns of reproduction of the country's population as a whole, as well as, separately, fertility, mortality and migration? 2) What factors determine the formation of one or another level of demographic phenomena, the qualitative features of population reproduction?

Consequently, it is necessary to identify, first of all, the qualitative patterns of development of demographic processes, then the reproduction of the population as a whole, in its socio-economic condition, and only then identify the system of factors that determine the development of demographic processes in a particular period of time. Such tasks face demographic research departments at research institutes.

Methodological provisions of demographic analysis.

When analyzing demographic processes, it is necessary to keep in mind the essence of the socio-economic processes occurring in society, country, region.

Demographic processes consist of a large number of events, the occurrence of each of which is due to elements of chance, the influence in each individual case of a combination of causes, but it must be borne in mind that through a large number of chance events a general pattern appears. Thus, the main task of demographic analysis- identify general patterns and changes in the nature of demographic processes. Changes of this kind occur gradually, the pace of their shifts does not always coincide for different demographic processes, therefore demographic analysis must be carried out over time (since time is the most important dominant factor in events occurring in the population).

The most important parameter in demographic analysis is territory. All demographic events occur in time and in relation to a specific country or a separate part of it. This means demographic analysis must be carried out relative to two coordinates - time and space. For example, it makes no sense to say: “Five million children were born.” A necessary attribute of clarification will be information about where and when this happened, otherwise the statement does not make sense for analysis and conclusions.

Demographic and socio-economic processes are connected by a unique link, namely, the mechanism of demographic behavior. The latter, in turn, consists of the population’s attitude to the problems of fertility (reproductive behavior), mortality (self-preservation behavior), displacement (migration behavior), and family and marital problems (matrimonial behavior). There are connections and interactions between such relationships and demographic states.

For example, a high level of migration of young people from one part of the country to another leads to the fact that in those regions where young people chose to emigrate, the total number of births decreases, the age-sex structure changes significantly with all the ensuing consequences. The processes of fertility, mortality and marriage are interconnected, although to a lesser extent. Thus, we are talking about studying exogenous and endogenous connections that are diverse in nature. This means that to analyze such dependencies, a variety of analytical apparatus, methodological approaches and techniques must be used, since not one, even the most powerful method of studying demographic processes, cannot provide a comprehensive description of the patterns occurring in the population.

The integrated use of demographic analysis methods is the main condition for its success.

Demographic Analysis Task Sequence:

1) identify qualitative patterns of development of demographic processes;

2) identify patterns of reproduction of the population as a whole, in their socio-economic condition;

3) identify a system of factors that determine ongoing demographic processes at a given period of time.

Demographic analysis methods.

1. Statistical methods population studies (demographic statistics). All the most developed techniques of statistical analysis are used here: relative and average values, indices, probabilistic characteristics of the intensity of processes, etc. But demographic statistics, based on a general statistical methodology, also has its own methods. For example, demographic tables, which are a system of probabilistic characteristics that describe changes in the state of people and the occurrence of demographic events in their lives as they move from age to age (from birth to the end of life). Demographic tables are used as input demographic analysis models.

Historically the first were mortality tables (life tables), they are the easiest to use. Such a table identifies only two states - life and death, therefore, only one type of transition. The mortality table is a model of changes in causes of mortality at different times.

Mortality tables must be studied because they are a method ordering statistical data on population movements. Based on demographic tables, demographic indicators such as: average life expectancy, average number of children born during a lifetime, distribution of women by number of children born, probability of marriage, widowhood and divorce, gender specificity of the territory are calculated. The above indicators are important for building demographic forecasts and demographic policy of the country.

2. Mathematical models in population studies. They mean mathematical modeling, especially computer simulation models of demographic processes and their development. The use of such methods requires special training.

3. Sociological methods represent an analysis of demographic behavior, the attitude of the population towards a particular demographic problem, and the mechanism for the formation of various stereotypes. The most popular here are sociological surveys.

4. Graphic-analytical and cartographic methods. Within the framework of these methods, demographic information is presented in the form of various kinds of graphs, diagrams, drawings, population density maps and other visual images, which makes it easier to identify and better present the general patterns of development of demographic processes and their structures.

Specific graphic images include age pyramids, allowing to analyze the age-sex structure of the population at a certain moment.

A widely used graphic image is called demographic grid, it shows the dynamics of population groups over time.

All of the above analysis methods should be used comprehensively and complement each other.

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution

higher professional education

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC SERVICE

under the PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

SIBERIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT - BRANCH OF RANEPA

CENTER FOR RETRAINING SPECIALISTS

Department of Taxation and Accounting

Coursework

Topic: Analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation.

Student: Kopeikina Elena Vladimirovna

Teacher: Berezin S.A.

Novosibirsk 2014

Introduction

1. Analysis of population size and age-sex composition according to population census data

2. Natural population movement

3. Migration movement of the population

4. Processes of marriage and divorce

Conclusion

List of sources and literature used

Introduction

The word “demography” is formed from two Greek words: “demos” - people, and “grapha” - to write, that is, if this phrase is interpreted literally, it will mean “description of the people”, or description of the population. But demography, from the very beginning of its history, has never been limited to just description; its subject has always been broader and deeper.

Demography is not a new science. It is already more than 300 years old. But it still remains a little-known science for most of our citizens. And only in recent years this situation has changed. Now you can often hear 110 radio or television and see the words “demography”, “demographic” in various phrases in newspapers.

Since the beginning of the 90s. Our country has entered the stage of, without exaggeration, a demographic catastrophe. This catastrophe is expressed primarily in an unprecedentedly low birth rate (the level of which today is half as low as in the most difficult years of the Great Patriotic War), in a very high divorce rate (for which we are now in second place in the world after the United States), in the relatively low duration life of the population, especially the male population. Moreover, more than half of the male population does not live to retirement age. Since 1992, Russia's population has not been growing, but has been declining, and at a very rapid pace.

Despite some differences in the final results of Russia's demographic development over half a century, depending on the accepted initial parameters of fertility, mortality and net migration), all numerous forecasts converge on a rapid decrease in the population and its rapid aging. According to demographers, “the most probable forecast option is that the population of Russia will steadily decline and will reach 90,590.6 thousand people by the beginning of 2050, having decreased by 51.6 million compared to the beginning of 2007, or 1.6 times. The share of the population 60 years and older will increase from 18.9% to 38.5%, the share of the working age population will fall from 18.6% to 9.4%.

These negative consequences entail a sharp increase in the costs of social support for the disabled population and the loss of defense potential, and ultimately the destruction of the geopolitical balance.

Demographic losses continue to serve as a source of economic damage from the loss of human resources themselves and investments in people made, but not fully effective (in upbringing, education, health care, etc.). But more important than these losses is the inability of Russian society to achieve such goals as a longer and healthier life.

Preserving the demographic, labor and defense potential of geopolitical balance, normalizing the proportions of settlement (primarily the settlement of border areas) should be considered fundamental values ​​for any sovereign state.

The topic of the study was the assessment and analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation, since this problem is currently the most pressing in terms of forecasting and identifying factors influencing the demographic situation in the country. In this thesis, time series and forecasting using trend models were used to analyze the demographic situation.

Modern statistical research methods can provide a complete picture of the demographic situation in the areas under study.

The purpose of demographic analysis is related to the needs of economic planning (the need to foresee the dynamics of fertility and mortality of the population and the structure of labor resources); the need to assess the future dynamics of consumer demand for certain types of goods and services; planning needs of the social sphere (education, healthcare, construction, pension system, etc.).

Thus, the study of the demographic situation is one of the global problems of modern statistics, which was the choice of the topic of this study.

The purpose of the course work: analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation.

Conduct an analysis of time series dynamics of fertility, mortality, and natural increase.

Object of study: population of the Russian Federation.

Subject of research: demographic processes of the population.

Methods of the research: time series models, indicators of natural and mechanical population movement.

1. Analysis of population size and age-sex composition according to population census data

The most important demographic characteristic of a territory is the size of its population. The main source of information on population size is population censuses. Population censuses provide information about the population on a specific date or at a specific point in time. In the intervals between censuses, the population of individual settlements is determined by calculation based on the initial data of the latest census and current statistics on natural and mechanical population movement according to the balance scheme

When determining the population of individual settlements on a certain date, statistics can take into account different categories of the population - permanent and existing. The permanent population of a certain locality includes persons usually residing in this locality, regardless of their actual location at the time of registration (census); cash includes all persons actually present at a given point at the time of recording, regardless of whether their stay at this point is temporary or permanent. Naturally, when taking into account the permanent population, it is always possible to identify a group of those temporarily absent, and vice versa, when taking into account the existing population, it is possible to identify a group of those temporarily present.

Let us analyze the population of the Siberian Federal District using the methodology of time series analysis. One of the most important areas of analysis of time series is the study of the features of the development of a phenomenon over individual periods of time. Analysis of the speed and intensity of the development of a phenomenon over time is carried out using indicators such as absolute growth (D), growth rates (T r) and growth rates (T pr), the absolute value of 1% growth.

Absolute growth - measured as the difference between two levels of the dynamics series, has the same dimension as the levels of the dynamics series itself. Absolute increases can be chain and basic, depending on the method of choosing a base for comparison:

chain absolute increase:

where is the value of the level of the i-th period,

The value of the level of the previous period.

base absolute increase:

D= y i - y 0 ( 2)

where is the value of the base period level.

Absolute growth characterizes the size of the increase (or decrease) in the level of a series over a certain period of time.

demographic indicator birth rate mortality

Growth rate is a relative indicator resulting from dividing two levels of one row by each other. The growth rate is an indicator of the intensity of change in the level of the series. Growth rates can be calculated as chain ones, when each level of the series is compared with the level preceding it:

·100%, (3)

or as basic, when all levels of a series are compared with the same level selected as the basis of comparison:

Growth rates can be presented as ratios or as percentages. The growth coefficient shows how many times a given level of a series is greater than the base one (if this coefficient is greater than one) or what part of the base level is the level of the current period for a certain period of time (if it is less than one).

For a relative assessment of absolute growth, growth rate indicators are calculated.

The growth rate is a relative indicator showing by what percentage one level of the dynamics series is greater (or less) than another, taken as the basis for comparison.

Basic growth rates:

Chain growth rates:

If we divide the absolute growth (chain) by the growth rate (chain) for the corresponding period, we obtain an indicator called the absolute value of one percent of growth. It also represents one hundredth of the base level.

(7)

The absolute value of one percent of growth serves as an indirect measure of the base level and, together with the growth rate, allows us to calculate the absolute increase in the level for the period under consideration.

Based on the indicators of changes in the levels of the dynamics series (absolute increases, growth rates and growth rates), obtained as a result of the analysis of the original series, general indicators can be calculated in the form of average values ​​- average absolute increase, average growth rate, average growth rate.

The average absolute increase can be obtained using one of the formulas:

or (8)

Where n- number of levels of the dynamics series;

- the last level of the dynamics series.

This indicator makes it possible to establish how much on average per unit time the level of a series should increase (in absolute terms) in order to, starting from the initial level over a given number of periods (for example, years), reach the final level. The defining property of the indicator of average absolute growth that interests us in this formulation of the problem is the total absolute growth for the entire period, which limits the dynamics series.

A summary general characteristic of the intensity of changes in the levels of a dynamic series is the average growth rate, which shows how many times the level of the dynamic series has changed on average per unit of time.

The need to calculate the average growth rate arises due to the fact that growth rates fluctuate from year to year. In addition, the average growth rate often needs to be determined in cases where data on the level at the beginning and end of a period are available, but intermediate data are not available.

The average growth rate can be determined using the formulas:

(9)

The average growth rate cannot be determined directly from successive growth rates or average absolute growth rates. To calculate it, you must first find the average growth rate and then reduce it by one, or 100%.

(10)

To conduct an in-depth analysis of population dynamics, indicators of the speed and intensity of changes in levels should be used in parallel. An analysis based on the use of any one of these indicators will inevitably be one-sided.

Table 1 - Population dynamics of the Russian Federation

Thus, the population of the Russian Federation for 2001-2013. decreased by 3 million people. or by 2.1%. It can be noted that until 2008 the population was continuously declining and in 2003-2008 it decreased by 3 million people. or 2.4%, but after 2008 it began to increase and during 2008-2013 it grew by 0.5 million people. (see Fig. 1).

One of the main sources of population data is the population census, which was last conducted in 2010.

According to the All-Russian Population Census, conducted as of October 14, 2010, the permanent population of the Russian Federation was 142.9 million people.

The census took into account 90 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation who were abroad on the census date in connection with a long business trip through government bodies and members of their households living with them (107 thousand in 2002).

In addition, the census took into account 489 thousand people who were temporarily (less than 1 year) in the territory of the Russian Federation and permanently residing abroad (in 2002 - 239 thousand people).

The Russian Federation ranks eighth place in the world by population after China (1335 million people), India (1210 million people), USA (309 million people), Indonesia (238 million people), Brazil (191 million people), Pakistan (165 million people) ) and Bangladesh (147 million people).

Compared to the 2002 population census, the population decreased by 2.3 million people, including in urban settlements - by 1.1 million people, in rural areas - by 1.2 million people.

Table 2 - Changes in the population of the Russian Federation according to the 2002 and 2010 census data.

The ratio of urban and rural residents in 2010 was 74% and 26%, respectively.

The population of the Russian Federation lives in 2,386 urban settlements (cities and urban-type settlements) and 134 thousand rural settlements.

Changes in the distribution of the urban population are characterized by the following data (Table 3).

Table 3 - The ratio of the urban and rural population of the Russian Federation according to the 2002 and 2010 census data.

93% of the urban population lives in cities (in 2002 - 90%), the rest of the urban population lives in urban-type settlements.