Interview with legendary investor Jim Rogers. For those who have not read or forgotten, let me remind you that Rogers is known for the fact that, together with George Soros, he founded the hedge fund Quantum, which in 10 years showed a return of 4200%, while the S&P 500 index grew by 47%. It was Jim who found most of the fund's ideas that were collected around the world.
After that, the partners parted ways. Jim made two trips around the world, one on a motorcycle, and the other on a car with his wife, as a result of which he became even better acquainted with different countries.
Now Jim Rogers manages exclusively his own money and, which is especially interesting for me, unlike Soros, he does not climb so actively into big politics. At the same time, he acts as a consultant and business partner in various projects around the world, periodically appears in the press and gives interviews. His investment philosophy is close to the Smart Value approach and appeals to me very much. He invests all over the world and moves funds to the most promising industries and countries. He was one of the first to invest in China and gold in the early 2000s.
I try to follow his statements, because he is an investor with vast experience and an excellent understanding of the processes taking place in the world. He has made a career out of investing against the crowd and knows what it is firsthand. Relying on growth when everyone is talking about falling, going right when everyone is turning left is really difficult.
Jim has written several books, and for those who want to get to know him better and his investment views, I recommend reading two of his books, which were also published in Russian:
Despite the title, this book is more about investing than parenting. I even saw the tip of one disappointed woman about this, who was not imbued with investment wisdom :)
This book is no longer general wisdom, but views on the processes taking place in different parts of our planet.
Jim also gave an interview to the RBC edition, with which I recommend.
Today I bring to your attention the latest information from Jim Rogers - part of an interview he gave in November 2016 in Singapore, where he now lives, to financial columnist Kim Iskyan.
When is it time to sell
Kim: Jim, we've talked a lot about buying ... But how do you determine when to sell an asset?
Jim: When people start to get hysterical, you can sense it in the behavior of the market. If you read the press, you may notice that when everyone talks about something that is the best thing, that a new era is beginning, it means that something has to change. You hear the same words every time, they are the same every time. Investors and the press use the same phrases about how great things are right now. For example, Amazon can never fall, and will never decline, and will one day rule the world.
When you hear this kind of talk ... I mean, fortunately or unfortunately, I've read a lot about the markets in my time, and they always say the same thing. Absolutely "new era". How many new eras have there been in history? This is just amazing.
Kim: So you are talking about using history to understand today's markets.
Jim: Yes ... If you understand the history, then you will most likely be a much better investor. You will be better at everything if you understand history, because this has already happened, it has all happened before. I assure you, we are all just people, have always been and always will be.
But you must understand the basics of how the world works. A good way to do this is to know what happened earlier. And if you know that, you will probably be one step ahead in understanding what will happen next.
Why will we all look like fools in 15 years?
Kim: What do you see in today's markets that in 10-15 years we will all remember and say, "Lord, what fools we were" (because we believed the talk about a "new era")?
Jim: In New York, there are only 10 or 15 shares on the stock exchange that hold general levels. These are all the big companies like Google, Amazon, Apple ... and all these companies seem to be just going to grow and get bigger and bigger and bigger.
And maybe some of them will be, but, I know, and you will find out if you look at the historical data that this is usually not the case. This is an extreme example, but if you look at the Dow Jones Industrials Average 100 years ago, I think now there is only one stock left, which is still included in it. Nothing lasts forever.
In fact, in one of my books I talk about how important it is to understand that things are changing. Take any year in history, 1900, everything that people knew in 1900 was already wrong 15 years later. Everything has changed.
Let's go again, pick any year, Kim. You can do it as well as I can. 1955th. Fifteen years later, the world was completely different than everyone thought it would be in 1955. And this is one of the main lessons that history teaches. And of course you should learn to think in this way if you want to be a successful investor.
That's all for today, but I continue to follow the new interviews and predictions of Jim Rogers, and as far as possible I will share with you here.
Successful investments,
Philip
For all questions, please email smartvalueideas (woof-meow) gmail.com
P.S. This article expresses the personal opinion of the author and is not a guide to action. You should make informed investment decisions on your own.
Jim Rogers is a successful international investor and traveler, author of several books. Together with he created the Quantum Foundation. He is the founder of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, the author of the RICI (Rogers International Commodities Index) and TRSIDXR (Rogers Global Resources Equity Index) indices. Jim Rogers often comments on the current market and economic situation and shares his ideas. His statements and comments are cited by leading international publications.
Jim Rogers biography and investment activities
Jim Rogers (full name James Beeland Rogers, Jr.) was born on October 19, 1942 in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Childhood was spent in Demopolis, Alabama. In 1964 he graduated from Yale University (studied history) and began working for Dominick & Dominick. In 1966, Jim Rogers graduated from Balliol College, Oxford University, where he studied philosophy, politics and economics.
Since 1970, Jim Rogers worked at the investment bank Arnhold and S. Bleichroder, where George Soros also worked at that time. In 1973 Jim Rogers and George Soros founded the legendary hedge fund Quantum. Over 10 years, the Quantum fund has shown an incredible 4200% growth; for comparison - the growth of the S&P index for the same period was less than 50%.
In 1980, Jim Rogers made the decision to leave the Quantum Foundation. His further investment activities are primarily related to equity capital management. After leaving the foundation, he taught finance at Columbia University Graduate School of Business, and also contributed to The Dreyfus Roundtable and The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers on business channels.
In 1990, Jim Rogers embarked on a journey that was included in the Guinness Book of Records: he traveled more than 160,000 km on a motorcycle across 52 countries. During the adventure, he simultaneously analyzed what was happening around him: a look at many countries from the inside became an additional source of investment ideas. Jim Rogers wrote his first book Investment Biker: Around the World with Jim Rogers based on the trip.
In 1998 Jim Rogers created his own commodity index - RICI (Rogers International Commodities Index)... Later, an ETF was created based on the index.
In January 1999, Jim Rogers and his wife embarked on another long journey that was included in the Guinness Book of Records. For 3 years, in a car specially modified for this purpose, they covered 245,000 km in 116 countries. After returning to New York, Jim Rogers wrote a book about the trip, The Ultimate Road Trip: Adventure Capitalist.
In 2004, another book by Jim Rogers was published - "Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market". The book has been translated into Russian under the title “Commodity Exchanges. The hottest markets in the world. How everyone can invest and make a profit. " In this book, the author shares his view of commodity markets, calling them the simplest instrument for investment (we are talking about long-term investments, not short-term transactions).
In 2007, Jim Rogers moved with his family from New York to Singapore. The main motive for the move was Asia's prospects in terms of economic development in the medium term. In an interview, Jim Rogers said that if you are smart, then in 1807 you should have moved to London, in 1907 you should have moved to New York, and in 2007 you should have moved to Asia. It should be noted that Jim Rogers does not consider the entire Asian region promising. For example, he is very skeptical about India. In the same year he published another book - "A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market".
In 2009, Jim Rogers published a book dedicated to his daughters - "A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons For Life And Investing". In Russian translation, the book was titled “Make Your Children Successful. Parenting advice from one of the world's most influential investors. "
In 2012, Rogers launched a new index, the Rogers Global Resources Equity Index. According to Jim Rogers, the index includes only the best and most liquid companies from the promising sectors, in his opinion.
In 2013, Jim Rogers released a book in which he combined his life experiences, shared his latest ideas and brought together key points from previous works. In the original (in English) the book was titled "Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets", the title in Russian translation - "The future through the eyes of one of the most influential investors in the world. Why Asia will dominate, Russia has a good chance, while Europe and America will continue to fall. "
In interviews, Jim Rogers often emphasizes that he is skeptical about the financial sector, saying that the Wall Street era is coming to an end. In his opinion, industries related to the production of real products, especially agriculture, are promising. He likes to say that in the future, it is the farmers who will drive Lamborghini.
James Beeland "Jim" Rogers, Jr.(born October 19, 1942) is an American businessman, investor and author. He is currently based in Singapore. Rogers is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).
Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of Austrian School of economics.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers
Bees James "Jim" Rogers Jr. ( born on October 19 1942) is an American businessman, investor, and author. He is currently based in Singapore. Rogers is chairman of RogersHoldings and beeland interests, Inc. He -one of the founders Quantum Fund and creator Rogers International commodity Index (Richie).
Rogers does not consider himself a member of any schools economic thought but acknowledged that his views would better fit the label of the Austrian School of Economics.
On Monday, April 6, Jim Rogers, a successful investor and co-founder of Quantum Fund, spoke at a conference to the clients of BCS Financial Group. He talked about where he invests himself and what other investments he considers successful.
Invest in Russia
“Russia is one of the most attractive markets for me in terms of investment,” Rogers said. According to him, there are many points of growth.
“I first came to Russia in 1966 and was very pessimistic. I was confident that Russia would not perform well in the next 46 years. In 2012, I changed my mind, ”Rogers said. During this time, according to him, much has changed: “There have been changes in the Kremlin, the approach to business has changed. Everything has changed for the better. "
Rogers invests in the Russian stock market. “Now the Russian stock market is on the decline. And this is very good news for me. When you buy in a downturn, you have good growth opportunities. It can take up to five years, but the crisis is sure to pass and you win, ”Rogers said. In his opinion, the Russian stock market is the best market in 2015.
Rogers himself invests in the securities of the Moscow Exchange, Aeroflot and Phosagro. Rogers joined the board of directors of the latter company last year.
The most promising direction Rogers considers agriculture. “This is a promising direction. I am sure that it will develop, otherwise we will all have nothing to eat, ”he said.
Rogers also called Russian OFZs a good investment.
Invest in China
The 21st century is the century of China, Rogers is sure. “The 19th century was the century of Great Britain, the 20th century the United States, and the 21st century will be the century of China, whether we like it or not,” Rogers said. - Many investors do not like that China is growing so fast. They say China is run by the communists, but they are the best capitalists in the world. "
China is the future, Rogers is sure. “The best advice I can give you is to get your children or grandchildren to learn Chinese,” says Rogers.
Jim Rogers
Born in 1942 in Baltimore (Maryland, USA). He was educated at Yale University, then at Oxford, where he studied politics, philosophy and economics.
In the early 1970s, together with George Soros, he co-founded the Quantum Fund. Over the next ten years, the value of the Quantum Fund portfolio grew by more than 4200%.
In 1980, Rogers decided to retire. He began traveling the world by motorcycle and became a tenured professor at Columbia University Business School. Having engaged in independent investments, in the summer of 1998 he created his own commodity index - Rogers International Commodities Index (and in 2012 he launched a new index - Rogers Global Resources Equity Index, which, according to him, included the best and most liquid companies from promising sectors) ...
Rogers invests not just in stocks of different companies, but in entire countries. For example, in the mid-1980s, he began investing in Portugal immediately after the overthrow of the communist government. Rogers bought shares in all 24 listed companies on the Lisbon Stock Exchange.
In 1990, Rogers went on a motorcycle trip around the world. Over the next 22 months, he traveled over 160 thousand km, setting a world record.
Until 2012, Rogers said that Russia is a country not suitable for investment. So, in 2003, speaking to MBA students at Harvard, he called Russia a country of kleptocracy and said that he would never invest in it: people and investors are leaving the country, oil production is declining, oil companies are not investing in their own development.
But in the second half of 2012, Rogers said in several interviews at once that his attitude towards Russia had changed. “For 46 years I have been“ bearish ”towards Russia. But now it seems to me that Putin and his government have taken up their minds.<...>In my opinion, everything has changed here, ”he wrote in his blog. “I am sure the situation in Russia is beginning to change for the better - for the first time,” the businessman said in an interview with CNBC.
In September 2012, he became an investment consultant for the agribusiness division at VTB Capital, and in 2014 joined the board of directors of Phosagro.
Rogers now lives in Singapore, manages his own portfolio and teaches finance at Columbia University School of Business. He has two daughters, born in 2003 and 2008.
Rogers invests in sectors of the economy that the Chinese government will support. “Several years ago they made a decision to support and develop certain segments of the economy that they need. They will invest in them. I also invest in them. For example, the railways in China are not very good, so they are investing in this sector, ”says Rogers. He also cited China's problem of severe environmental pollution as an example. “They will fight this problem and invest in this sector. So do I, ”Rogers said.
Don't buy dollars
“Many people buy American currency because they consider it reliable. But this is not true. I promise that in the next two or three years we will have problems with this, and many investors will suffer. I know for a fact that I don't want to invest in dollars, ”Rogers said.
If the currency is growing too fast, then there will soon be a correction, Rogers warned. “You shouldn't buy on such a strong growth as the dollar is now,” Rogers said.
Rogers does not consider the euro to be a reliable currency either. “The euro as we know it now will not survive the next five years. Something will happen - maybe in Greece or Portugal, ”he said. According to him, the euro may be a good idea for short-term investments, but not for long-term ones.
Rogers himself invests in the Chinese and Russian currencies. “Many will think I’m crazy, but I’m buying rubles,” Rogers said.
"How to Get Rich - Invest in Tough Times"
Rogers said it was a good idea for long-term investments to invest in countries where civil war had taken place. Wartime, in his opinion, is a dangerous period for investments, but after the end of the civil war, investments are possible. “Imagine investing in Germany in 1946. You would make a lot of money. Because everything was cheap, everyone was demoralized and the market was full of opportunities, ”Rogers said.
“Look at the world. If you see a civil war ending somewhere, then this is a good investment opportunity, ”says Rogers.
At the same time, he does not consider investments in Ukraine. “The economy and governance of this country has been destroyed,” he said.
Read more on RBC:
http://top.rbc.ru/finances/06/04/2015/55227dbb9a79472a1fbec948
Invest in rubles and the Russian stock market - this was the advice given by the famous American investor Jim Rogers on Monday. At the same time, the businessman called investments in the American currency short-sighted, and the euro, in his opinion, will not survive in the next 5 years. As for Russia, in this country, according to Rogers, there are many points of growth and this market is the most attractive for him.
Andrey Movchan
Russian financier
“Two questions should not be confused: the question of the possibility of obtaining a large income and the question of the likelihood of receiving it. Usually, the more interesting the opportunity, the lower the probability, as you can imagine. If everyone considered the Russian market to be excellent, then it would be very expensive<...>I think Jim Rogers means the following: you can earn a lot on the Russian market, but the probability of this is very small<...>And if Jim Rogers invests 0.1% of his fortune in Russia, then this is absolutely understandable, because if everything grows 100 times, then he will make 10% by 0.1%, and if he loses everything, he will lose 0.1 %. There is logic in this, it is often done<...>This is the logic of a weak, volatile, ineffective, but potentially very interesting market. "
This is not the first time Jim Rogers has expressed his sympathy for Russia. For example, at the end of last year, he praised the Russian Central Bank for its decision to let the ruble float freely. In addition, the investor owns shares in Aeroflot and the Moscow Exchange, invested in Phosagro, and joined the board of directors of a fertilizer producer.
Nadezhda Grosheva
private Russian investor
“Perhaps Jim Rogers is being a little disingenuous when he says that he has a very positive attitude towards Russia, its stock market and the ruble. The fact is that until 2012 he had a very negative attitude towards the Russian stock market, until VTB Bank gave him a certain position. Then this example was followed by other large Russian corporations, since then Rogers has been recommending buying Russia all the time. In general, those who bought Russia in 2012 on the advice of Jim Rogers did not make much money, but whether he made it himself is understandable, yes, he earned his reward. Is it worth it now to listen to the words of this investor - well, I would be wary of long-term investments in rubles. "
In addition to Jim Rogers, Western analysts interviewed by Bloomberg also complimented the ruble on the first day of the week. They called the Russian currency the best in the world, noting that in the first quarter the ruble rose in price by 4.4%, while the average oil price was almost a third lower than in the previous 3 months.
Jim Rogers is cool about the prospects for the euro at the present time. "I do not currently have Euro in my portfolio, because I believe that in the form in which the European currency is now presented, it will not last long. I believe that the European Union will face problems, "the legendary investor said today. Rogers' leading trading strategy has always been investing in markets that are undervalued and in decline. One of such markets, in his opinion, is now the Russian stock market, which, after a significant decline and good prospects is very attractive. The share of Russian shares in his portfolio is quite large, moreover, he intends to increase it. The expert, on the contrary, recommends avoiding shares of Ukrainian companies, despite the fact that the Ukrainian stock market is also cheap now. " I like to buy "depressive" stories, but I would avoid Ukraine, as its prospects are rather vague. The quality of governance in the country is very low; it is experiencing very strong external pressure. I am not ready to invest in Ukraine yet, "the investor said. Oil prices have already reached the" bottom "and will return to the level of $ 100 per barrel, but most likely not this year, Rogers said. the lifting of sanctions on Iran will be small, since, most likely, some of the Iranian oil still entered the market illegally.The current century will be the century of China, which will take the lead from the United States. according to his estimates, they will bring good dividends in the future.
(James Beeland Rogers, Jr.) is a successful international investor. Born October 19, 1942 in Demopolis, Olabama. Now he lives in Singapore.
- Education - Oxford and Yale.
- Together with George Soros, one of the founders of the Quantum fund (+ 4200% in 10 years).
- At 37, he retired, managed his own portfolio, lectured in finance at Columbia University graduate school.
- 1989-1990 Television moderator for The Dreyfus Roundtable (WCBS) and Incentive to Make Money with Jim Rogers (FNN).
- 1990-1992 rode> 100,000 miles on a motorcycle across 6 continents, hitting the Guinness Book of Records.
- He traveled around the world, spending 1101 days, and also got into the Guinness Book of Records.
Rogers entered the market in 1970.
I bought all the money put options and successfully tripled.
Two months later, Rogers went bankrupt, again shorting weak stocks. All the companies that Rogers were shorting went bankrupt after 5 years, but Rogers went bankrupt even earlier.
Created a commodity fund in August 1998.
Jim Rogers and his signature bow tie
According to Rogers, a bow tie is much more practical than a regular tie. “They're cheaper than long ties and it's almost impossible to get it dirty. For example, you won't be able to spill soup on it. "
Jim Rogers' Quotes and Investment Philosophy
Rogers loves commodities because the demand for them is growing all the time and the supply is limited. If the economy slows down, then central banks print money, and this still drives up commodity prices. "Whatever happens in the economy, investments in commodities will always be justified."
“As a rule, I don’t invest in what others are investing in”
"Usually I find something very cheap, which makes a positive change and buy"
"I always have more compelling reasons for buying stocks than the innate sense of contradiction that is attributed to me."
“If the overwhelming majority of investors have shares of a company, there are practically no people left who will buy them. And when negative changes take place in the market, it is time to sell securities. But to whom? "
"The efficient market theory is sheer nonsense. It takes a while for people to realize what is happening ... And while they do, there are also changes in the market that people do not understand because they do not understand the deeper reality. So I need to figure out a way to take into account incomplete understanding. people of what is happening in reality. "
“When I give lectures to students, I tell them that it would be useful for each of us to lose everything once or twice in our life ... The main thing is that this happens to you when you are young. Besides, it will be better if the cost of your mistake is five thousand, not five million. "
Jim Rogers books:
1995: Investment Biker: Around the World with Jim Rogers.
2003: Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip.
2004: Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market.
2007: A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market. - 2009: A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons For Life And Investing.
Sources:
Bob Sellers, Forbes: From Miscalculations to Breakthroughs. 30 lessons from great business leaders.
One of the founders of the Quantum Foundation.
Freelance Lecturer at Columbia University. Traveled a lot around the world - on a motorcycle!
Jim Rogers is one of those who know the value of time and know how to properly dispose of it. He was the only one who gave me a telephone interview without interrupting physical exercises - I don't know for sure whether he was running on a treadmill or pedaling an exercise bike. When my telephone interlocutor breathes heavily, and his voice is interrupted at times by physical effort, my conscience does not allow me to ask him too many questions. By the time the interview was over, Jim was probably in better physical shape than I was (his financial condition, I suppose, is also better than at the beginning of our conversation). Perhaps Jim really knows how to properly manage his time.
A successful fund manager, Jim never wastes his time. While others are wondering what Jim knows, what they don’t know, he invests in securities that almost no one pays attention to. “Generally, I don’t invest in what everyone else is investing in,” says Rogers.
I usually find something very cheap that makes a positive difference and buy it.
A typical example in this case is the commodity fund that Jim Rogers created in August 1998. This happened in an era when most investors were enthusiastically looking for the shares of the next Internet companies ("dotcoms"). We all know well how this hobby ended.
“Within the first four or five months,” recalls Jim Rogers, “our foundation fell into disrepair. The famous Asian crisis broke out, and other unfavorable events took place. Since January 1999, a bull market for commodities has formed. However, even after that, it took several years for most people to realize that the prices of basic commodities began to rise. Even today, very few people invest in stocks of commodity producers, despite the fact that for more than a decade, these companies have represented the best part of the stock market.
However, in no case does Jim Rogers behave like a "white crow", or a person who, for reasons of principle, does not want to behave like other investors. Don't oversimplify. In fact, in many cases Rogers is acting contrary to prevailing trends because he spends much more time thinking about investments.
I buy these or those shares not at all because other investors bypass them. No, I always have more compelling reasons than the innate sense of contradiction that is attributed to me. Most investors tend to ignore cheap stocks. On the contrary, they tend to buy as expensive as possible in order to then resell them at even higher price or to sell them short. And it turns out that all the stock market players are hunting for certain shares. But if the overwhelming majority of investors own shares of a company, there are practically no people left who will buy them. And when negative changes take place in the market, it is time to sell securities. But to whom?
Jim has good reason to believe that commodity prices will rise further. He recalls a conference in Prague: “One speaker asked the audience which of them had ever invested in gold; 76 percent of the listeners (of course, successful investors) answered that they had never done this in their life. But it was about gold. I am sure that if the speaker asked if they have ever invested in soybeans or something like that, none of them, except for me, would answer this question in the affirmative. "
Jim is moving against the tide not only in investing, but also in fashion. Anyone who has seen him appear on CNBC, Bloomberg or Fox will never confuse him with other members. And the reason for this is his constant bow tie. However, in this case, Jim Rogers does not expect to gain a lot of followers. Just a bow tie, in his opinion, is much more practical than a regular tie. “They're cheaper than long ties,” explains Jim. “Plus it’s almost impossible to get it dirty.” For example, you won't be able to spill soup on it. "
Rogers' affection for commodities is by no means a passing fad. “My main investments are now in commodities as global demand for them is growing. However, their offer is still limited. Therefore, if the global economy improves, the demand and prices for basic commodities will inevitably rise due to the growing deficit. If there is no positive change in the global economic situation, then investments in basic goods will still be justified, since governments will have to print money. And historical practice shows that when money is printed, it leads to higher prices. Now, perhaps for the first time in the history of mankind, almost everyone who is not lazy is printing money. And if the situation does not change for the better, there will be more and more money, which, of course, will only benefit those who have invested in commodities. It is well known that during periods of intensive work of the printing press, the only real protection of your savings, as well as the way to increase them, is investment in tangible assets. In my opinion, no matter what happens in the economy, investments in raw materials will always be justified. "
While many other commodity investors cite China as the main driving force, Jim disagrees.
“The Chinese economy accounts for only a tenth of the American and European economies,” he points out. - Whatever the Chinese do in any market, they cannot be the main factor. Of course, they buy, they are doing well, they are growing, but the economies of Europe and America are ten times the size of China's. The need for commodities exists everywhere. Therefore, of course, the Chinese economy has a significant impact on the growth in demand for commodities. But this growth is also influenced by the Asian economy as a whole, and the entire world economy. "
Jim Rogers' Most Productive Mistake (in his own narrative)
At the time - January 1970 to be exact - I was new to the business. I have come to the conclusion that we are going into a bear market. Rather, we were already in it, and the situation, as it seemed to me, should only get worse. My way of thinking at that time was very radical. So I invested all my money (and I had very little of it) in buying put options. Then firms with a history of about a hundred years went out of business. In other words, it has been the worst bear market since 1938. The situation is unique.
I was lucky: I tripled my fortune. The day the market bottomed out, I sold all my puts and became three times richer. And then I said to myself: "Damn it, it's that simple!"
So, I got my profit and waited for the market to go into the growth stage. And so it happened. Two months later, I short-sold six companies with all my money (I didn’t want to buy the puts as it was difficult to buy them by that time), and after about two months I was broke. I completely lost my investment stamina, while the market continued to grow.
Then it dawned on me how little I knew about the markets and what could happen in them. By the way, all six companies mentioned above went bankrupt over time. More precisely, it all happened over the next five years. True, I myself went bankrupt even earlier than they did, because I did not yet understand the markets well enough, the essence of trading operations, and the like.
And then I realized: when I wanted to open a position, I always proceeded from the fact that everything I knew was also known to other market participants. But now I know that efficient market theory is sheer nonsense.
[Note. The efficient market hypothesis, according to Businessdictionary.com, states that the price of any financial instrument reflects all currently available information about it and that it will change as soon as there is any new information about that financial instrument.]
In fact, some of us are better at predicting the future than others. I have always believed that everyone knows, for example, that XYZ stock should not be bought due to the imminent future bankruptcy of this company. Although in fact not everyone knew about it!
I realized something else: it takes people a certain amount of time to realize what is happening (or what is actually happening). And while they do this, changes are also taking place in the market, which are incomprehensible to people just because they do not understand a deeper reality. Therefore, I needed to come up with a way to take into account people's incomplete understanding of what is happening in reality.
This was perhaps the worst of my mistakes (in percentage terms). And when I give lectures to students, I tell them that it would be beneficial for each of us to lose everything once or twice in our life. Each of us knows the stories of people who experienced major setbacks, but eventually rose to their feet. The main thing is that this happens to us when we are young. Besides, it will be better if the cost of your mistake is five thousand, not five million.
Jim Rogers in Brief
Jim Rogers is a native of Demopolis, Alabama, author of several books, financial commentator and successful international investor. His articles have appeared frequently in such periodicals as Time, Washington Post, New York Times, Barron's, Forbes, Fortune, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Business Times, Straits Times and many others around the world. as a regular commentator and columnist for various media, he lectured at Columbia University.
Educated at Yale and Oxford Universities, Jim Rogers co-founded Quantum Fund, a global investment partnership. Over the next ten years, the fund's portfolio grew by 4,200 percent, while the S&P 500 grew by less than 50 percent. Then Rogers, who was 37 at the time, decided to retire. While continuing to manage his own portfolio, he lectured in finance at Columbia University as a professor. In 1989 and 1990 he moderated the Dreyfus Roundtable on WCBS and Incentive to Make Money with Jim Rogers on the Financial News Network (FNN).
In 1990-1992, Rogers made his dream come true, having covered 100 thousand miles on a motorcycle across six continents (more than 160 thousand kilometers). This achievement is recorded in the Guinness Book of World Records. Not forgetting his role as a private investor, Jim Rogers constantly analyzed the peculiarities of the countries along which the route of his grandiose motorcycle trip lay, trying to formulate new investment ideas for himself. This unusual journey is chronicled in his book Investment Biker: On the Road with Jim Rogers. In addition, Jim decided on the so-called adventure of the millennium. On his trip around the world, also recorded in the Guinness Book of World Records, he spent 1101 days. Having passed 116 countries, he covered 245 thousand kilometers, reflecting all the twists and turns of this journey in his book Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip. Wrote the book “Commodity Exchanges. The hottest markets in the world. How everyone can invest and make a profit. " Jim Rogers' recent book, A Bull in China, describes his experiences in China, as well as the changes and opportunities that are opening up in that country. His most recent (at the time of this book's publication) work is A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing.
