Quite often we come across the word "crisis" in everyday life, and this concept is complex. And more and more often in the last decade, the word "crisis" is associated with economic instability, a decline in production and leaps in prices upwards and wages downwards. Are crises conducive to economic progress and can they be avoided or prevented? This is what we have to figure out further.
According to the definition given in the economic dictionary of B.A. Raisberg and L. Sh. Lozovsky, the economic crisis manifests itself in a sharp deterioration in the state of the country's economy, when a recession occurs in the production sector, natural economic ties are disrupted, enterprises suffer losses and go bankrupt, unemployment rises, and the general level of well-being decreases. Thus, the crisis phenomena show that a serious imbalance has occurred in the economic sphere, the real indicators and the situation “on paper” are less and less the same, which is why there is a violation of the flow of payments and the balance of payments, the loss of asset liquidity leads to an increase in unpaid obligations, which, in turn , inhibits the continuous movement of capital as an engine of production and economic processes.
Even Karl Marx determined that crises are characteristic of the capitalist economy, in particular, due to the fact that the gross domestic product is produced in excess of effective demand.
The Austrian school is characterized by an understanding of the economic crisis as a "crisis of overproduction", when, due to the consistent distortion of information about the income and expenses of future investment projects, an overestimation of the expected profit occurs, which leads to the depreciation of money and the creation of an excess money supply due to the growth of demand for credit money, the rates on which are reduced ... In society, the tendency to spend funds instead of accumulating them prevails. As a result, improper investments do not bring the expected income, money does not return in full to the economy, a boomerang effect occurs: credit resources are not replenished, there is a shortage of real money against the background of an overvalued money supply, the economy suffers from an oversupply of gross domestic product due to the fact that investments are directed into deliberately unprofitable projects. In order to get back at least part of the money invested in economic development, investors sell “bad investments” at a significantly lower cost in order to return the money diverted to entrepreneurial projects back into circulation. Against the background of a lack of money to pay debts, production is being reduced and optimized, first of all, there is a wave of layoffs.
Hence the fear of the majority of people of the crisis, since the labor market is overflowing with the supply of labor, competition for the employer arises, as a result of which wages are reduced, due to which the standard of living falls. By and large, the population is not ready for crises for the reason that for many people the only source of income is hired labor, most often unskilled.
If you look at the economic phenomena inherent in modern economies, you can see certain patterns of crises. So, many scientists at different times have come to the conclusion that economies have the quality of cyclicality.
Topic: Is the crisis an integral part of the economic process or can it be prevented?
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Anti-crisis management in Russia has been developing for about 20 years. But, despite such a long period of time, no specialist in this field will be able to answer the question: "What is the crisis of the socio-economic system, is it inevitable or can it be prevented?" Following the classical economic theory at the macro level - the level of the world economy and the economies of individual states, the crisis is understood as an inevitable phase of the economic cycle, but this phase is a prerequisite for a new "recovery".
Crisis management theory at the micro level has nothing to do with phase theory. And on the contrary, a crisis is not a phase, but a state that is caused by numerous external and internal factors. Thus, on the basis of the cyclical (phase) theory, we conclude that crises are inevitable, and on the basis of the anti-crisis management theory, we can conclude that crises can be prevented.
It is also unclear whether there are objective laws governing the emergence of crises at the level of enterprises and firms. Making attempts to consider the internal cycles and phases of enterprise development (by analogy with the socio-economic system at the macro level), we see that organizations complete their existence without any dependence on these phases. In practice, organizations and firms go through several periods: formation, growth and prosperity - this confirms the presence of phases, periods and waves of development. Consider an example: After a heyday, there is usually a recession due to obsolescence of a product or technology. Timely organized and carried out modernization (reforms) allow the company to find a new life and start the cycle again. How, then, is it to be explained that organizations are struggling and often go bankrupt while in other phases? A large number of firms do not live not only to a period of recession, but also to a period of recovery. In addition, some firms successfully perform their functions in the adverse conditions of global economic downturns, and many suffer losses and declare bankruptcy in relatively good times. During the financial crisis, a large number of prosperous organizations began to experience serious problems not because of their own miscalculations, but because of significant changes in the external environment.
The economic cycle is the successive ups and downs in the levels of economic activity. Each economic cycle is individual and differs in intensity and duration. It is impossible to predict with mathematical precision the duration and temporal sequence of economic cycles. In their irregularity, economic cycles are more like changes in the weather.
Based on the concept of crises, I conclude that:
- It is impossible to avoid crises because the stages of cyclical development are regular and regularly repeated. Likewise, crises can be the result of a major mistake or natural disaster;
- When the potential of the main elements of the system is exhausted, crises begin, and the elements of a new system, a future qualitatively new cycle, arise;
Consequently, the crisis is a necessary element of progress.
Crisis as “natural selection” reveals weaknesses and removes unreasonable ambitions; forces the strongest market participants to find new ways of development and win the right to a place in the sun.
Since crises are individual, any crisis requires specific measures to overcome it.
In order to effectively manage the crisis, it is necessary to investigate not only its causes, but also its consequences. A crisis can have both positive and extremely negative results.
In order to ensure less painful and effective development of the socio-economic system, anti-crisis management operates. We can safely diagnose that overcoming crises is a controlled process.
To successfully manage crises, you need to be able to timely detect the first symptoms of its onset, which can be differentiated primarily by typological affiliation.
The way out of crisis situations with minimal losses directly depends on a competent analysis of the current situation in the economic system, therefore, the modern labor market needs highly qualified specialists in the field of crisis management.
The whole process of anti-crisis management is based not on completely eliminating the crisis, but on directing it in the right direction for further, dynamic development of the economy.
Summing up the above, the crisis is the most priority element of self-regulation of the market economy. A crisis always entails the completion of one and the beginning of a new period of development. The economic crisis makes it possible to identify not only the limit of possibilities, but also the ways of economic development, stimulating progress. In times of crisis, incentives are born to significantly reduce production costs, increase profits, and the struggle between competitors intensifies.
References 6
Excerpt from the text
In recent years, the Russian economy, under the influence of many negatively influencing external economic factors, including the global financial crisis, US and EU sanctions, and the decline in oil prices, has undergone significant changes. Due to the fact that economic progress is of particular importance for Russia, the implementation of an innovative way of its socio-economic development is based on solving spatial problems. The purpose of the work is a theoretical analysis of the criteria of economic progress in the context of the development of a market economy.
The degree of knowledge. In the development of this topic, the works of such authors as: Zubenko V.V., Lomakin V.K., Ponomareva E.S., Chebotarev N.F., Shkvarya L.V. were used. and others, as well as the Internet resource was used.
The degree of knowledge. In the development of this topic, the works of such authors as: Zubenko V.V., Lomakin V.K., Ponomareva E.S., Chebotarev N.F., Shkvarya L.V. were used. and others, as well as the Internet resource was used.
The term "investment" has a Latin origin - investure (to clothe), in economic theory and practice, this concept came from the English language - to invest (to invest).
There are many different definitions of investment in the economic literature. In the planned economy, it was not used, it was always about capital investments, that is, about the costs allocated for the reproduction of fixed assets, their increase and improvement. Investment meant a long-term investment of capital in various sectors of the economy.
This process, especially characteristic of the period 1990-2000, was reflected in the concept of the so-called “new” or “open” regionalism. This can be called a feature of modern economic organizations. The purpose of this work is to determine the features of the formation of international economic organizations and their role in the world economy.
The financial analysis will be based on FSUE Elektropribor as a whole. As an illustration of the above, we will consider individual indicators of the FSUE "Electropribor", the initial data of which are presented in Appendix.
1. For the analysis, we use the data for previous years, they most clearly show the crisis state of the enterprise.
The object of the study is small business, including the oil industry of the economy as an integral part of the overall economic system, the specifics of its development in Russia and a set of measures of support from the state.
When writing the work, a number of textbooks on economics were widely used; many periodicals providing analytical materials and data; as well as information resources of the Internet.
The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was the works of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of anti-crisis management, namely, Garin E.P., Sazonov S.P., Puzin N.V., Orekhova V.I, Grinina L.E., etc., scientific and practical works devoted to the problems of the modern world economy, textbooks on the theory of financial and economic crises, legislative acts of the Russian Federation, etc.
Bibliography
1. Ratkovsky I.S., Khodyakov M.V. History of Soviet Russia. www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/History/Rat/index.php
2. Gaidar E. T. The death of an empire: lessons for modern Russia. - M .: ROSSPEN (Russian Political Encyclopedia), 2006.
Bulletin of the Chelyabinsk State University. 2010. No. 28 (209). Economy. Issue 30.S. 23-26.
V. E. Rossik
THE ORIGINS OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS
The views on the economic crisis, the reasons for its occurrence and the impact on the economy are considered. The conclusion is made about the systemic crisis in Russia.
Key words: systemic crisis, cyclicality, the main cause of the crisis.
It is well known that the economic life of a society is not an even movement forward. It is subject to various negative influences (droughts, floods, wars, epidemics, etc.). Economic cyclicality is an objective form of market economy development. It is a wave-like movement of the economic environment (business activity) with a regular alternation of its ups and downs. One of the phases of the cycle is the crisis.
According to representatives of the classical theory of macroeconomic equilibrium (A. Smith, D. Ricardo, A. Marshall, etc.), the market economy is protected from recession by self-regulation mechanisms. The flexibility of such monetary forms as interest, wages and prices ensures equilibrium in the capital, labor and money markets; the market mechanism itself is capable of correcting imbalances arising on the scale of the national economy, and state intervention is not required.
Both G. Malthus and S. Sismondi, in contrast to the aforementioned classics, believed that crises were inevitable, and associated them with insufficient aggregate demand for manufactured goods. At the same time, Malthus believed that the source of insufficient demand is the overaccumulation of capital, and Sismondi is the underconsumption of workers and capitalists: the underconsumption of workers is the result of a slower growth in incomes compared with the growth of commodity masses, and capitalists is a consequence of a reduction in consumption with the goal of accumulating capital. Both the one and the other underestimated the investment component of aggregate demand.
The American economist JK Galbraith, in his book The Great Crash of 1929, attributed the crisis to psychological causes. He wrote that the reason for the crisis lies in good expectations. The beginning is the general rise in prices for both stocks and real estate, items
art, and so on. There is a rush in the market, prices are rising, and everyone is full of optimism. Galbraith makes a comparison with an inflated balloon, from which, in the event of a puncture, air does not escape gradually, but immediately. This very accurately reflects the situation on the market when the crisis enters an active phase. He sees the following reasons for this phenomenon:
1. Wrong distribution of income. This means that the economy is dependent on a high level of investment and consumption of luxury goods, which is a consequence of the receipt of most of the income by a small part of the population.
2. Poor corporate structure. The constant presence of the risk of ruin due to the triggering of the leverage effect in the opposite direction.
3. Poor banking structure. The fall of one bank on the principle of dominoes brings down others as well.
4. The depressing state of foreign trade
5. Weak level of economic knowledge.
According to Karl Marx, the main cause of the crisis lies in the process of circulation of capital. Stopping or changing this process entails a break in the circulation of capital. It is this aspect of capitalist production, that is, the imbalance in the capital market, that is the specific cause of the economic crisis under capitalism. The same aspect also explains the frequency of crises, their recurrence at certain intervals and similar, although not the same, manifestations, that is, the characteristic course of the economic cycle.
“... Immediately before the collapse,” writes Marx, “the enterprise always looks almost exaggeratedly healthy. The best proof of this is provided, for example, in the “Reports on Bank Acts” of 1857 and 1858, where all bank directors, merchants, in a word, all invited as experts, led by Lord Overston,
congratulated each other with a flourishing and healthy development of affairs - just a month before the crisis broke out in August 1857. And Tuck, in his History of Prices, strikingly succumbs to this illusion over and over again in the historical description of each individual crisis. Businesses are always eminently healthy, and things are doing in the most brilliant way, until suddenly collapse breaks out. "
First of all, the crisis is revealed in the sphere of circulation and credit, although the decline in production is the main and central expression of the crisis. A decline in prices and other signs of an incipient crisis signal an impending decline in production.
The transition to depression is characterized by the suspension of the decline in production and its fluctuation at a low level.
JM Keynes recognized that the development of capitalism is faced with such contradictions that cannot be spontaneously overcome. Keynes considered the main ones to be the emergence of mass unemployment and the lack of "effective demand" for goods, as a result of which the supply of goods does not automatically coincide with the demand for them. He saw the main flaw in the previous economic theory in underestimating the obstacles to the crisis-free development of the capitalist economy, which are created by the "lack of effective demand." Keynes meant capital investment, consumption, and government spending by effective demand.
Monetarists attribute the crisis to the causes of the monetary nature. The most famous founders who have developed a complete theory of crises on this basis are K. Zhuglar and M. Friedman. Monetarists argue that a market system without government intervention ensures macroeconomic stability and economic growth. The monetarist concept of the crisis is based on the quantitative theory of money, according to which the money supply in circulation has a direct impact on the price level.
They believe that the instrument that determines the stability of production, prices and employment is money. This means that money performs the function of managing demand, and through it - and economic processes, in part
ness have a significant impact on the volume of production. Since monetarists believe that the rate of turnover of money is relatively stable and predictable, then the general equilibrium (including employment) is associated exclusively with the supply of money - its quantity. An unjustified increase in the supply of money leads to inflation, and a decrease to deflation. Both that, and another negatively affects the economic development of society. Therefore, the basis for stabilizing prices and maintaining moderate rates of economic growth, they believe, is state control over the supply of money in the country.
A significant part of the above theories are monocausal, that is, they reduce the origins of cyclicity to one or another basic mechanism, which is a source of fluctuations that extend to all spheres of relations in society: economic, social, political.
ND Kondratyev is the author of the very first systematic concept of long-term fluctuations in the economy, which revealed their endogenous nature. Unlike the above authors, while developing his own theory of the economic development of society, he did not limit himself to any one justification of cyclicality, but made his starting point the mode of production as a complex of all scientific, technical, economic, as well as political, social and other conditions. Having carried out a detailed study of the economic development of England, France and the United States since the end of the 18th century, N.D. Kondratyev discovered three large cycles in the world economy:
I - from 1789 to 1814 (upward wave) and from 1814 to 1849 (downward wave);
II - from 1849 to 1873 (rise) and from 1873 to 1896 (decline);
III - from 1896 to 1920 (new upward wave).
The average duration of "Kondratyev's cycles" was 50-60 years, and the author based them on the spasmodic nature of scientific and technological progress, periodic revolutions in technology and production technology. The emergence of "long waves" is due to the fact that "bundles" of major innovations (for example, the invention of an internal combustion engine, a car, an airplane, etc.) give an impetus to eco-
nomic activity for several decades, until their influence fades away.
At the end of the 30s. XX century Austrian economist J. Schumpeter put forward a general theory of cycles of different duration, which, when combined, provided a certain amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuations. This theory was also based on scientific and technical factors of economic progress. In his book Business Cycles. Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process ”(1939) J. Schumpeter proposed the concept of the so-called three-cyclical scheme of economic dynamics, within which half-century Kondratyev cycles, 10-year Zhuglar cycles and two-year Kitchin cycles were combined.
Describing their relationship, Schumpeter concluded that a longer cycle necessarily includes shorter periods of development, with the result that "the swing of each longer wave creates a close equilibrium for the wave of the next order." At the same time, the main driving force of cyclicality is the innovative activity of entrepreneurs, massive investments in fixed assets.
In another book, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942), Schumpeter noted: “Making long-term investments when conditions are changing rapidly is almost as risky an exercise as shooting at a target that is not only hard to see, but it also moves in jerks ")
